Wolver 4.25 High Maintenance @ 16/1
Buxxtothemoon @ 14/1
Sea Willow Saver @ 8/1
The dutch return was too short for me at 100/30, hence the saver on Sea Willow. She got blocked early on on h/cap debut but stayed on well and gets dropped another 1lb.
The fav Eglish may be a class above these, but whilst I did consider the simple lay, I do think there a couple of reasons to take the horse on. These 3yo races at this time of year can be won be horse that ran off rag prices lto, or beaten 10 lths plus, so I'd like to thinbk there are a couple capable of running above their mark.
Also Eglish's last run reads very well in terms of class , beating 63,60,67,72,60,62,72,65 horses and this is an average of 52 and the horse is still only off 55.
The problem I have is that race was much slower than the lower grade 7f run later that evening.
She may well win again but looks sure to be over-bet.
Whilst a Haggas runner in this grade on 1st h/c run off the back of three poor runs initially tempts, I don't want to get mugged by the profile. The owner/ breeder seems to produce moderate horses, so I'm happy to pass over Sena even at this level.
Where Next Jo did have my interest; dropping back 1.5f having led lto into a strong headwind, she may hard to catch in front with the use of a 7lb claimer on board. I did think it was the worst race I'd seen lto, with plenty doing their best to lose, so I have to pass her over.
Twittering just looks exposed.
Gracies Girl is hard to weigh up as Appleby has run her on fibresand twice,.when she run on polytrack on debut to good effect. She should stay trip, but I'm not sure if she's ahead of her mark.
Lucifer is by the same sire as GG and the fav, but has a wide draw and I'm not convinced the horse has any low grade ability.
Pull Harder Con has suffered with a desperate opening mark. No surprise to see him improve, but I can't see him winning this on recent evidence.
Shumli has at least won over C&D , is only 1lb higher and the winning jockey returns on board, but she has put in poor runs since. She had no chance lto in a seller, so did as well as could have been expected and the headgear change may help, but she is short enough for me.
That leaves the two picks, who may well be exchange plays as they could drift, both on h/cap debut.
Both are similar types; very late to the track 2yo's who obviously only have h/caps to aim at .
High Maintenance is probably the stronger of the two, simply on the fact she last ran in a fair maiden lto were the winner now has a mark of 79. Today's mark of 51 certainly looks a workable mark and Luke Morris replaces Lundie ( 0/21 for the stable ), plus 1st time headgear.
Buzztothemoon's "best" piece of form was his lto run when beaten over 7 lths and finishing 9 of 10. Even though that race was much slower than the earlier division, there were some decent types at the front end.
Whether Buzz can find any more improvement in the space of two weeks is open to question, but they will struggle to find weaker races than this.
I can't pass over the chances of Sea Willow and I was thinking Laura Pearson would have been best on to, but she rides WNJ. The jockey rode her lto and should hope place her to better effect.
A race where I won't be too concerned about the market pre race, but more concerned about early race position and if the two main picks have any ability, the jocks generally get the job done at this level.