My first post on this thread. I was very happy to find such a vigorous and knowledgeable forum. I hope I can add something to it in the coming months although I must warn you that I'm in lousy form this jumps season. I am £300 down to £10 unit stakes. At some point I will start tipping winners again.
Many will have watched Frodon win the Cotswold Chase last January. If so, you might recall the 40/1 outsider Alysson Monterg travelling like a class horse for most of the race. He matched strides with Frodon until turning in, steadily fading from the 2nd last to finish some way back. He hasn't raced since, a reflection of his overall career; he's had just 13 runs.
I first spotted him winning easily at Perth and backed him a couple of times afterwards without success. But that Cotswold Chase run was his first with cheekpieces and despite finishing unplaced, he notched up his best ever Racing Post Rating.
Cheekpieces are on again tomorrow and he had a wind op on September 19th. He's won twice on heavy although what kind of heavy it turns out to be remains to be seen (I recall much debate when Ascot's new drainage was first put in) David Johnson of Timeform tweeted that the going stick reading will be the lowest at Ascot for ten years. Digging back to see how previous Ascot heavy affected results (looking mainly for big upsets) there is very little data. At their December meeting (2019) the ground was heavy, but you need to go back 5 years to find the previous NH meeting held on heavy.
Alysson Monterg's record left handed is 0 from 9. Right handed it is 2111. There's been money for him since the entries were published - 11/1 to 7/1 generally, although Boylesports are the sole bookie offering 8/1.
It's a highly competitive race. I was impressed by Domain De L'isle last time when he followed up his Chepstow win with an impressive Newcastle victory, looking very much an improver bang in form. But he went into the Chepstow race (7th Dec) on 120; tomorrow he races off 140. Runner up last time was the consistent Sam's Adventure (not helping his cause with a tired error at the last) who has an 8lb pull for a 5L defeat. Jack Tudor, a wee star, knocks another 7lbs off tomorrow so he's going to get an awful lot closer to Domain De L'isle than last time.
Happy Diva never runs a bad race. She hasn't finished worse than 5th in her 31-race career (when completing). I like Kildisart an awful lot and there's a big name handicap in him. But that will surely come on much better ground than this. Venetia's 6-y-o, Espoire De Guye, youngest in the field, needs to defy a rise of a stone to follow up his last victory here. But he's another potential right handed specialist who will get his ground.
So, a hot race. But I hope that an EW bet on Alysson Monterg will get a return.
Summary:
3.00 Ascot Alysson Monterg EW at 8/1 Boylesports.
The others I have picked for a bet tomorrow are in this post. I put it in the 'wrong' thread when first publishing it here yesterday.
If things pan out the way I think they will, Saturday’s Peter Marsh Chase (2.40 Haydock) will look more like a John Ford movie as they head for home, with Red Indian and Geronimo leading the pack. Red Indian is particularly good value at 25/1. He relishes the mud and has a record on heavy ground of 121. Four of his last 9 runs have been in graded company, including a 4th of 7 behind La Bague Au Roi in a Grade 1
.
He has 10st 11lbs here minus the 5lbs his jockey Ben Jones claims (top weight is Definitly Red with 11.10)
Red Indian has run his best races after longish breaks and he comes here having been rested for 287 days. He should not be 25/1. I’d normally back him each way but instead I will have a saver on the improving horse and the least exposed, Geronimo, who has won on heavy.
Geronimo has the almost perfect profile of an improver when you use Racing Post Ratings to measure progress. His career figures are: 103 103 107 114 114 119 123 132 135 137.
His trainer Sandy Thomson knows what he’s doing and the yard is in cracking form -4 winners from his last 10 runners with just one of those unplaced. You can back both with Bet365 who are currently best odds and also protect you with the best odds guarantee. Red Indian is 25/1 and Geronimo 7/1.
Summary
Red Indian 25/1 win only
Geronimo 7/1 win only
Oops, just looking at Oddschecker, Red Indian is now 12/1 and Geronimo 13/2. FWIW, I'd still back both at those prices.
All the best.
Joe