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Daily Racing Insight

Wolver 12.55

Having become a Ben Curtis recently, especially in running, I've got a problem with his ride on the fav Dark Phoenix and my gut says lay it in running.

The sire Camacho has never produced a winner in the 1st quarter of the season beyond 8.5f, whith the earliest winner @ 3yo coming in May. Hopefully get a prominent pitch , travel and get outstayed.

With new 3yo stallions involved in this race, caution is advised, but the ones that I wan't on my side are

Good Try- Well beaten on all 3 maidens ( Gosden won all 3 nto races) , but has C/P and step up should suit . 24.0 on ex

Nikoleyeva- SMP to Appleby for 5k raises a variety of concerns, but will get trip and Luke Morris knows the horse. 22.0 on ex.

Arabescato. Already run over C&D as a 2yo and really no surprise to see improvement. 10 on the ex

Dame Rapide comes out of the worst lto race I can remember, where they were falling over themselves to lose. If she gets a better pace to chase here, we could see some improvement.
 
I've got a problem with his ride on the fav Dark Phoenix and my gut says lay it in running.
Click to expand...

As usual the late market was spot on, drifting 100% in the last 2 minutes. Even though the horse got the predicted lead, I was never going to get matched @ 1.98. Finished last of 12.

Had better luck with the back bets, especially as the winner was struggling to go into the stalls. Good Try was better than her finishing position as she hung behind the winner and then got eased. She hit a low of 2.0.

I( was strongly against the 2nd placed horse on account of the distance/ age factor, so was relieved at the finish.
 
My first post on this thread. I was very happy to find such a vigorous and knowledgeable forum. I hope I can add something to it in the coming months although I must warn you that I'm in lousy form this jumps season. I am £300 down to £10 unit stakes. At some point I will start tipping winners again.

Many will have watched Frodon win the Cotswold Chase last January. If so, you might recall the 40/1 outsider Alysson Monterg travelling like a class horse for most of the race. He matched strides with Frodon until turning in, steadily fading from the 2nd last to finish some way back. He hasn't raced since, a reflection of his overall career; he's had just 13 runs.

I first spotted him winning easily at Perth and backed him a couple of times afterwards without success. But that Cotswold Chase run was his first with cheekpieces and despite finishing unplaced, he notched up his best ever Racing Post Rating.

Cheekpieces are on again tomorrow and he had a wind op on September 19th. He's won twice on heavy although what kind of heavy it turns out to be remains to be seen (I recall much debate when Ascot's new drainage was first put in) David Johnson of Timeform tweeted that the going stick reading will be the lowest at Ascot for ten years. Digging back to see how previous Ascot heavy affected results (looking mainly for big upsets) there is very little data. At their December meeting (2019) the ground was heavy, but you need to go back 5 years to find the previous NH meeting held on heavy.

Alysson Monterg's record left handed is 0 from 9. Right handed it is 2111. There's been money for him since the entries were published - 11/1 to 7/1 generally, although Boylesports are the sole bookie offering 8/1.

It's a highly competitive race. I was impressed by Domain De L'isle last time when he followed up his Chepstow win with an impressive Newcastle victory, looking very much an improver bang in form. But he went into the Chepstow race (7th Dec) on 120; tomorrow he races off 140. Runner up last time was the consistent Sam's Adventure (not helping his cause with a tired error at the last) who has an 8lb pull for a 5L defeat. Jack Tudor, a wee star, knocks another 7lbs off tomorrow so he's going to get an awful lot closer to Domain De L'isle than last time.

Happy Diva never runs a bad race. She hasn't finished worse than 5th in her 31-race career (when completing). I like Kildisart an awful lot and there's a big name handicap in him. But that will surely come on much better ground than this. Venetia's 6-y-o, Espoire De Guye, youngest in the field, needs to defy a rise of a stone to follow up his last victory here. But he's another potential right handed specialist who will get his ground.

So, a hot race. But I hope that an EW bet on Alysson Monterg will get a return.

Summary:

3.00 Ascot Alysson Monterg EW at 8/1 Boylesports.

The others I have picked for a bet tomorrow are in this post. I put it in the 'wrong' thread when first publishing it here yesterday.

If things pan out the way I think they will, Saturday’s Peter Marsh Chase (2.40 Haydock) will look more like a John Ford movie as they head for home, with Red Indian and Geronimo leading the pack. Red Indian is particularly good value at 25/1. He relishes the mud and has a record on heavy ground of 121. Four of his last 9 runs have been in graded company, including a 4th of 7 behind La Bague Au Roi in a Grade 1
.
He has 10st 11lbs here minus the 5lbs his jockey Ben Jones claims (top weight is Definitly Red with 11.10)

Red Indian has run his best races after longish breaks and he comes here having been rested for 287 days. He should not be 25/1. I’d normally back him each way but instead I will have a saver on the improving horse and the least exposed, Geronimo, who has won on heavy.
Geronimo has the almost perfect profile of an improver when you use Racing Post Ratings to measure progress. His career figures are: 103 103 107 114 114 119 123 132 135 137.

His trainer Sandy Thomson knows what he’s doing and the yard is in cracking form -4 winners from his last 10 runners with just one of those unplaced. You can back both with Bet365 who are currently best odds and also protect you with the best odds guarantee. Red Indian is 25/1 and Geronimo 7/1.

Summary
Red Indian 25/1 win only
Geronimo 7/1 win only


Oops, just looking at Oddschecker, Red Indian is now 12/1 and Geronimo 13/2. FWIW, I'd still back both at those prices.

All the best.
Joe
 
Steeplechasing Steeplechasing your above offers good insight well explained and evidenced. I am flat only so cannot contribute to the meat but Re the bones you have well beat the market with Red and more of the same will sort the 30pts you mention. Unfortunately i can agree and empathize Re your concerns about the reliability of official going reports.

It is not uncommon to read " No stick readings aval because the stick is broken" the fact that no spare is kept says plenty.! While i do not use race times as a direct part of my process when looking at back form i always check the going on times and find it alarming that there can often be big variances when compared to the official versions.
 
The peter marsh is a nice race to look at and typically difficult to find anything that might be well handicapped due to the fact that the handicapper knows them so well, these 3m chasers quite often run races that baffle form readers by being so inconsistent but that's racing and therefore i will go with the novice mare MIDNIGHT TUNE who's form might not be anything special and in small fields but maybe she will enjoy the heavy ground and 25f will help her overcome the 2lb overweight. good luck.
 
Wolver 3.40 Glamorous Force @ 7/1
Red Allure @ 18/1

65/35 split

Whilst I'm conscious of getting mugged into finding the "lightly raced" type in this awful contest, were very few will ever win a race, GF is a fair enough price to take the punt. These races are effectively Cup Finals for a few of these low level trainers, so even with poor horses, a couple could show improved form.

As an after-thought after placing my bets I was surprised to find that both the trainers of my picks show a decent lsp over the last 2 years, backing blindly in h/caps.

Glamorous Force has to be forgiven a desperate run at Southwell, but only member of his family also put in a poor fibresand run, but went on to win 4 races, climbing from a mark of 54 to 79. The other 2 members of the family look to be total pigs.

However, GF's 3rd maiden run gives the gelding an obvious chance to me back over C&D .
Beaten 10 lths over 5f raises obvious concerns, but he had little chance against a horse that had previously run in G2 & G3 races and got bumped early on. Whilst the winner is no Group pefrormer ( Run in Group 1 since) , he has run well in a h/cap since off 81 and now raised to 84.

The 2nd has progressed even further and is now rated 88.

It should also be considered the classy front two had more race experience than GF. The three behind the pick look sub 45 rated horses, but I still feel a mark of 49 for the pick is workable.

His next run when 4th, was an improvement on the clock and whilst it looks modest form , he had a wide draw and was off 51 in an average OR race of 56.

Unfortunately gets another wide draw, but drops 2lb and this race is an average OR of 47.

Red Allure looks even more speculative and also gets a bad draw in 10.

0/17 and I do think the mare is worth watching back on turf, but she finally gets the 1st time head gear and she has little chance in many of her races.

Her last run when 7/12 was the slowest of the two divisions, but looked to struggle with the last 1f against stronger rivals ( front 3 home rated ave 60) , but she was also out of the weights, so comes here 6lb lower.

Possible I'm viewing the horse through rose tinted spectacles and the lower drawn horses had an advantage, but the inner may be falling over themselves and I do think both represent a fair chance of performing in this grade.




 
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