Daily Racing Insight
- Thread starter mlmrob
- Start date
mlmrob
Sire
Sigster
Gelding
Nothing from me for tomorrow as I don’t want to shoehorn one in, but I’ve picked a race to work for Friday. Again no rhyme or reason behind it other than it’s a decent sized handicap field(bar NR and withdrawals) with plenty to try and get my head around. In fact I may start a thread relating to this to keep my thoughts in one place as it appears this may be a new “thing” , but also any feed back will be in one place then for me to reference it as the need may be. Appreciate the comments, as always and while yes, I’m happy it won, beginners luck and all that(which is better than the first post curse) I now have to prove it wasn’t a fluke, take what I’ve learnt and reapply it. The trick of course is to apply it consistently even on a bad run. Once I’ve done this ten or twelve times(at least), that will be the time to assess exactly what I have learnt(if anything 
).
Learning plenty, onwards and upwards.
).Learning plenty, onwards and upwards.
mick
Sire
My own view is that in this game there are no experts because regardless of what anyone may have achieved in the past its always the future which will prove the straightener. I also feel this truth is a great injustice but that's another story. If my opinion is correct then it follows that we are all learners.Sigster one thing it seems that all the top guys here agree on is that this is one continuous learning curve
You often see "Professional Backer" used to describe even applaud assumed expertise...... Its the strangest thing but several i have met over the years who described themselves as such did not appear to have much money, indeed they where often after mine.!
arkle55
Sire
Can you lend me a tenner.
When people ask me to lend i seem to develop the syndrome of short arms and very long pockets.
Arkle
mick
Sire
arkle55 My luck has been good because i have never been seriously knocked and there have been some fair sized amounts involved, but perhaps its just good karma because trust should be all and while no angel in some areas of my past i would never contemplate owing anyone via or because of betting.
mick
Sire
Square away any future tickets and you can consider it done.
nigel90
Colt
7.00 Wolvo Zuckerberg 7/1 EW
This is another of my Ivan Furtado first time up in a handicap. His 5 year strike rate is 23% and 2 year 22%.
In nurseries he is 1/3 in 2017, 2/4 in 2018 and so far 1/2 this year.
Zuckerberg is dropping down from class 2 in this having run well in class 5 before that against horses rated in the 70s. He also drops back to sprinting.
My only concern is that he is FTO on all weather. The horse is currently 7/1 with B365 and IMHO worth a punt at that price.
This is another of my Ivan Furtado first time up in a handicap. His 5 year strike rate is 23% and 2 year 22%.
In nurseries he is 1/3 in 2017, 2/4 in 2018 and so far 1/2 this year.
Zuckerberg is dropping down from class 2 in this having run well in class 5 before that against horses rated in the 70s. He also drops back to sprinting.
My only concern is that he is FTO on all weather. The horse is currently 7/1 with B365 and IMHO worth a punt at that price.
OnTheNod
Mare
That one comes up on my 6/1 or better ew method, the dam has breed 2 Wolvs AW winners so could go well and seems to of been well backed also. Good Luck!!
| My Horses | 6/1 Method | 7.00 | Wolverhampton | 8 | Zuckerberg (IRE) | Marquand, Tom | Furtado, Ivan | 11/2 | ?? |
Chesham
Sire
The Dams winners. So far have been 3 YO ‘s.
OnTheNod
Mare
Yes but none have run on the track as 2 yo's anyhow, i am just testing so far i would like to see a winning race from him personally, you will never cut racing down to an exact science anyhow and i never expect to and never have either.
Chesham
Sire
Just an observation for the Dam as some produce better results as a 3 y-o.
On the Plus Side the Trainer is very good in 2 Y_O Nurseries
I'm now fully restored so will try and make a case for one at york tomorrow, 2.20...PASSION AND GLORY only 5/2 in a 17 runner race and handicap debutante but he looks to be improving based on his win at windsor lto, plenty of winners in his collateral form though the numbers suggest handicapper has it about right. Both 3yr old allowance and 5lb bonus of young fallon make me me think they mean business tomorrow and i don't see anything with the opposition to suggest there's much to worry about form wise. Negatives must be a big field of 17 and i always worry about the consistency of this yard so no good thing but ought to go close. maybe.
mlmrob
Sire
YORK 4.30
For the last five years the winner has come from stalls 1-4 and blindly following the four horses would have fetched a profit of 19 points. However, there is a strong trend amongst the five winners.
ALL FIVE WINNERS HAD AN OFFICIAL RATING BETWEEN 5LBS AND 12LBS LOWER THAN THE HIGHEST RATED HORSE.
By combining the draw and the official rating all five winners were found from 15 selections and a profit of 29 points achieved.
Pendleton is the sole qualifier today.
Pendelton was backed off the boards at Carlisle last time 100/30 into 5/4. However, things didn’t go to plan as the horse raced keenly and got involved in a pace battle and his stablemate Gale Force Maya picked him off. The fact that Pendleton kept going all the way to the line means the performance has to be upgraded. He achieved a performance rating of 78 that day and he had previously run to this mark of 82 in his previous two races when second twice at Haydock Park.
Look Out Louis who he got involved with the pace battle at Carlisle turns up again but that horse ended up 11ls behind at the line.
There have been 9 handicaps over 6f on the Knavesmire this year and every one has been won by a horse that raced prominently, four made all. There were 11 handicaps last season of which 8 winners raced prominently, two raced in midfield and one was held up, so there is a clear bias towards the racing style.
Michael Dods has added the first time cheekpieces to try and nullify the keenness and with Roulston Scar and the tearaway Look Out Louis the other front runners, Pendleton should be able to track those two.
Michael Dods saddled Dakota Gold to finish second in this two years ago on just his fifth handicap start and this is the fifth handicap start for Pendleton. Pendleton’s half-brother, Holmeswood also won on his fifth handicap start. Dods has quite a good record with 3yos having their fifth handicap start and those that go off in the front three of the betting have returned the following figures in the last three seasons, 311122412241224141115.
For the last five years the winner has come from stalls 1-4 and blindly following the four horses would have fetched a profit of 19 points. However, there is a strong trend amongst the five winners.
ALL FIVE WINNERS HAD AN OFFICIAL RATING BETWEEN 5LBS AND 12LBS LOWER THAN THE HIGHEST RATED HORSE.
By combining the draw and the official rating all five winners were found from 15 selections and a profit of 29 points achieved.
Pendleton is the sole qualifier today.
Pendelton was backed off the boards at Carlisle last time 100/30 into 5/4. However, things didn’t go to plan as the horse raced keenly and got involved in a pace battle and his stablemate Gale Force Maya picked him off. The fact that Pendleton kept going all the way to the line means the performance has to be upgraded. He achieved a performance rating of 78 that day and he had previously run to this mark of 82 in his previous two races when second twice at Haydock Park.
Look Out Louis who he got involved with the pace battle at Carlisle turns up again but that horse ended up 11ls behind at the line.
There have been 9 handicaps over 6f on the Knavesmire this year and every one has been won by a horse that raced prominently, four made all. There were 11 handicaps last season of which 8 winners raced prominently, two raced in midfield and one was held up, so there is a clear bias towards the racing style.
Michael Dods has added the first time cheekpieces to try and nullify the keenness and with Roulston Scar and the tearaway Look Out Louis the other front runners, Pendleton should be able to track those two.
Michael Dods saddled Dakota Gold to finish second in this two years ago on just his fifth handicap start and this is the fifth handicap start for Pendleton. Pendleton’s half-brother, Holmeswood also won on his fifth handicap start. Dods has quite a good record with 3yos having their fifth handicap start and those that go off in the front three of the betting have returned the following figures in the last three seasons, 311122412241224141115.