Daily Racing Insight
- Thread starter mlmrob
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mlmrob
Sire
I will start the thread off with this but it is not an example of whats required The first paragraph would be more than enough. But, as this is posted elsewhere, I have copied to here.
DELL ARCA 2.00 HAYDOCK
Dell Arca is a class act and has his perfect conditions. His record in blinkers on left handed tracks that are not totally flat reads 4-16. However, that improves when racing for less than 17k to 1341311. He has only once been out of the frame when third of seven to More Of That and As De Mee in a Novice Chase and he was ahead of Double Shuffle and Might Bite. He has two pieces of form this year that puts him ahead of this lot. In April he was third to Another Hero and Singlefarmpayment in a 0-150 and in the autumn he was a 5ls fourth to Snow Falcon in the Munster National. Considering Snow Falcon has since won a Grade 2 off 8lbs higher, the second was a Grade 1 Chaser and the third was Rogue Angel. Rogue Angel would be a short price to win this so the fact that Dell Arca gave him 6lbs and was only half a length behind him makes the form solid. The horses directly behind Dell Arca were rated 140,141 and 152. Since then Dell Arca was finished eighth in the Matchbook Chase at the Showcase meeting. He was making headway when he clouted one and it knocked him for six but he was still keeping on at the finish and he had a little run over hurdles at the Open meeting. Dell Arca has a big weight but he did carry 12-2 to victory in a 0-140 handicap hurdle off 142 and 11-10 to victory in another 0-140. He is too big a price to ignore.
Back To The Thatch was given a ride for the future at Chepstow behind Ramses De Teillee and with that horse finishing runner up in the Welsh National the form is sound. But, the horse is yet to place in eight races over 24f+ and he is yet to place in five races at Class 2 or better.
Ami Desbois was a length in front of Back To The Thatch at Chepstow. He has his ‘go to’ jockey on board and will relish the conditions. This is just his third handicap chase and even though he run in the Rehearsal Chase he blundered away his jockey at the third. He was third in the Grade 1 Challow Hurdle a year ago so he is smart and is potentially well in and on the same terms he should finish in front of Back To The Thatch again. He likes to lead and with Ballymalin, Another Venture and Chef Doeuvre in the race, this isn’t the place for a pace battle. He should run his race.
Another Venture was back in fifth in that Chepstow race and will strip much fitter today. He is another that likes to lead but in three races off marks 130+, he has unplaced all three times. He is yet to place in four races in Class 2 or better.
Very First Time will have needed the run on his seasonal debut over course and distance and has been keeping better company than this. His second to Acdc reads well in a novice chase though he was 4/9 that day. He is another who can make the running. His only win in a handicap is at Newcastle a year ago in a 0-125 off 124. He is yet to place in 8 races off higher marks.
West Of The Edge was second in this last year off 128 and was also second in the Eider off the same mark. He got caught at the last at Gosforth Park and that well maybe the target again. He went out like a light in the Borders National earlier this month which took his record to 0-6 in the 120s. The handicapper may well have him.
Chef Doeuvre is well handicapped but fragile. He needs an absolute bog as his legs can’t handle much else so I don’t know whether this ground will be right for him, 0-8 on soft. He is also yet to place in seven races worth 10k+.
Ballycross is 0-8, 2 places, beyond three miles. He is 0-9, never placed, in Class 2 or better.
Ballymalin is 0-6 beyond 25f and even though he was third in the Midlands National over 30f, he was beaten 15ls. However, on that form he holds
Back To The Thatch and West Of The Edge. He was made favourite on his reappearance but the bottom line is he is 0-10 in races worth 10k+.
Dare To Endeavour is 0-18 going left handed.
Conclusion: Ami Desbois would have been the selection had the race not been full of front runners. If he does get away on the front end on his own he probably won’t be caught. However, Dell Arca is the other class act in the race and has the form to win this and if he doesn’t he should be placed. I will take Dell Arca at 25/75 and if Ami Desbois does get away on the front end I will back him in running.
DELL ARCA 2.00 HAYDOCK
Dell Arca is a class act and has his perfect conditions. His record in blinkers on left handed tracks that are not totally flat reads 4-16. However, that improves when racing for less than 17k to 1341311. He has only once been out of the frame when third of seven to More Of That and As De Mee in a Novice Chase and he was ahead of Double Shuffle and Might Bite. He has two pieces of form this year that puts him ahead of this lot. In April he was third to Another Hero and Singlefarmpayment in a 0-150 and in the autumn he was a 5ls fourth to Snow Falcon in the Munster National. Considering Snow Falcon has since won a Grade 2 off 8lbs higher, the second was a Grade 1 Chaser and the third was Rogue Angel. Rogue Angel would be a short price to win this so the fact that Dell Arca gave him 6lbs and was only half a length behind him makes the form solid. The horses directly behind Dell Arca were rated 140,141 and 152. Since then Dell Arca was finished eighth in the Matchbook Chase at the Showcase meeting. He was making headway when he clouted one and it knocked him for six but he was still keeping on at the finish and he had a little run over hurdles at the Open meeting. Dell Arca has a big weight but he did carry 12-2 to victory in a 0-140 handicap hurdle off 142 and 11-10 to victory in another 0-140. He is too big a price to ignore.
Back To The Thatch was given a ride for the future at Chepstow behind Ramses De Teillee and with that horse finishing runner up in the Welsh National the form is sound. But, the horse is yet to place in eight races over 24f+ and he is yet to place in five races at Class 2 or better.
Ami Desbois was a length in front of Back To The Thatch at Chepstow. He has his ‘go to’ jockey on board and will relish the conditions. This is just his third handicap chase and even though he run in the Rehearsal Chase he blundered away his jockey at the third. He was third in the Grade 1 Challow Hurdle a year ago so he is smart and is potentially well in and on the same terms he should finish in front of Back To The Thatch again. He likes to lead and with Ballymalin, Another Venture and Chef Doeuvre in the race, this isn’t the place for a pace battle. He should run his race.
Another Venture was back in fifth in that Chepstow race and will strip much fitter today. He is another that likes to lead but in three races off marks 130+, he has unplaced all three times. He is yet to place in four races in Class 2 or better.
Very First Time will have needed the run on his seasonal debut over course and distance and has been keeping better company than this. His second to Acdc reads well in a novice chase though he was 4/9 that day. He is another who can make the running. His only win in a handicap is at Newcastle a year ago in a 0-125 off 124. He is yet to place in 8 races off higher marks.
West Of The Edge was second in this last year off 128 and was also second in the Eider off the same mark. He got caught at the last at Gosforth Park and that well maybe the target again. He went out like a light in the Borders National earlier this month which took his record to 0-6 in the 120s. The handicapper may well have him.
Chef Doeuvre is well handicapped but fragile. He needs an absolute bog as his legs can’t handle much else so I don’t know whether this ground will be right for him, 0-8 on soft. He is also yet to place in seven races worth 10k+.
Ballycross is 0-8, 2 places, beyond three miles. He is 0-9, never placed, in Class 2 or better.
Ballymalin is 0-6 beyond 25f and even though he was third in the Midlands National over 30f, he was beaten 15ls. However, on that form he holds
Back To The Thatch and West Of The Edge. He was made favourite on his reappearance but the bottom line is he is 0-10 in races worth 10k+.
Dare To Endeavour is 0-18 going left handed.
Conclusion: Ami Desbois would have been the selection had the race not been full of front runners. If he does get away on the front end on his own he probably won’t be caught. However, Dell Arca is the other class act in the race and has the form to win this and if he doesn’t he should be placed. I will take Dell Arca at 25/75 and if Ami Desbois does get away on the front end I will back him in running.
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pete
Sire
doomster
Dam
mick
Sire
Members have been asking about improving ,this comes via learning and anyone who reads and thinks about
mlmrob above will learn.But i suspect that while bothering to go to the trouble of typing the post he may have almost inadvertently learnt a little more about some of the horses in this race.A win win for contributor as well as reader but the more of the former then the better the thread and the learning.
mlmrob above will learn.But i suspect that while bothering to go to the trouble of typing the post he may have almost inadvertently learnt a little more about some of the horses in this race.A win win for contributor as well as reader but the more of the former then the better the thread and the learning.
mlmrob
Sire
T
tacker
The indirect form is very very good.
His first race is forgetable due to him not being fit but when he split De Name Evades Me and Worthy Farm thats the form.
De Name Evades Me went on to be third to Vive La Roi with Rockpoint second and De Name Evades Me finished ahead of Virginia Chick giving that horse 9lbs. Worthy Farm beat twice winner Farm The Rock, gave 24lbs, 24ls who was rated 114.
I would say its a good move by the trainer to throw Captain Cargo into a handicap on just his third outing off 116.
The indirect form is very very good.
His first race is forgetable due to him not being fit but when he split De Name Evades Me and Worthy Farm thats the form.
De Name Evades Me went on to be third to Vive La Roi with Rockpoint second and De Name Evades Me finished ahead of Virginia Chick giving that horse 9lbs. Worthy Farm beat twice winner Farm The Rock, gave 24lbs, 24ls who was rated 114.
I would say its a good move by the trainer to throw Captain Cargo into a handicap on just his third outing off 116.
Bold Gait
Mare
Uttoxeter top rated (This is just a rating and nothing more)
12-35 Dragon Khan
1-40
Fight Commander
Rollerball Rocco
2-10 Eur Gone West
3-15
Constante Via
3-35
Northern Princess
As far as the ratings go the 3-15 and the 3-35 hold the most interest
3-15 Constante Mia produced an improved performance LTO on RPR ratings. The winner of the race was a short priced fav and CM had given it a pound as well. It was also an improving horse. CM was nearest at the finish, so this distance should be OK. Today CM is a well backed fav for this race. It is not a very good race either and so it is there for the taking.
I also have some simple rules that I mostly follow. If I am going to empty my wallet, it would not be in a race like this. Too many runners and too short a price. The number of runners just increases the chance of an outsider taking the race. Weight carried in a handicap - this is just a personal 'thing' but 11-11 is always a stake reducer for me in races like this. Hopefully I have explained a little why I have no more of an interest in races of this make up.
3-35
Northern Princess
Firstly NHF races are not my forte and I rarely back in them
Chesham and others have a much better take on them than I do.
Hopefully, LTO NP had a fair excuse for the poor run. So to the race before. Just beaten by Emmas J and EJ went on to be narrowly beaten in a valuable event next time, setting Northern Princess up for a decent attempt in this race today.
Negatives are that the race was slowly run and the main negative is that I know little about NH flat racing and I have had no time to look at
Chesham ratings either as I have to leave right now.
This is just my first two sweeps through this card. The first to rate. The second to look at the few horses I think might be best. NON of the horses listed/rated would have a tremendous chance on this initial method alone, hence the negative tone re betting them.
Hopefully, someone else might have a look and see what they fancy in these two races.
12-35 Dragon Khan
1-40
Fight Commander
Rollerball Rocco
2-10 Eur Gone West
3-15
Constante Via
3-35
Northern Princess
As far as the ratings go the 3-15 and the 3-35 hold the most interest
3-15 Constante Mia produced an improved performance LTO on RPR ratings. The winner of the race was a short priced fav and CM had given it a pound as well. It was also an improving horse. CM was nearest at the finish, so this distance should be OK. Today CM is a well backed fav for this race. It is not a very good race either and so it is there for the taking.
I also have some simple rules that I mostly follow. If I am going to empty my wallet, it would not be in a race like this. Too many runners and too short a price. The number of runners just increases the chance of an outsider taking the race. Weight carried in a handicap - this is just a personal 'thing' but 11-11 is always a stake reducer for me in races like this. Hopefully I have explained a little why I have no more of an interest in races of this make up.
3-35
Northern Princess
Firstly NHF races are not my forte and I rarely back in them
Chesham and others have a much better take on them than I do.Hopefully, LTO NP had a fair excuse for the poor run. So to the race before. Just beaten by Emmas J and EJ went on to be narrowly beaten in a valuable event next time, setting Northern Princess up for a decent attempt in this race today.
Negatives are that the race was slowly run and the main negative is that I know little about NH flat racing and I have had no time to look at
Chesham ratings either as I have to leave right now. This is just my first two sweeps through this card. The first to rate. The second to look at the few horses I think might be best. NON of the horses listed/rated would have a tremendous chance on this initial method alone, hence the negative tone re betting them.
Hopefully, someone else might have a look and see what they fancy in these two races.
@mimrob
Little to add mate really in a race where you need to be confident they are trying, i thought bowen gave this a very gentle ride at southwell and perhaps looked the winner 2 out LTO but maybe finished a little weak. there are a couple of others you could make a case for but will risk a few bob at 9/2
thanks for the response.
A
Archived User Guest 1
Guest
I mentioned in another post earlier today that everyday racing was not a good pastime for myself, I am useless at it. Well, last evening I thought I would have a look to see what I could find. I chose some races to look at and used ratings as a GUIDE along with consistency, keep it simple I thought.
OK, so now we have 9 races to wait for the markets to form. From the 9 races I placed 8 wagers throughout the afternoon. Second, Second, Second, Winner, Second, Second and finally....Second. Told you I was not good at these lower class races. I really thought Captain Cargo was a decent wager for today off of today's mark. I think he could have possibly been given a little more of a positive ride, but that's racing. He will not be the price he was today next time out.
Not too much damage from my side thanks to a decent priced winner so can't complain. I do hope that at least some of you made a decent profit today.
Regards
Orion
OK, so now we have 9 races to wait for the markets to form. From the 9 races I placed 8 wagers throughout the afternoon. Second, Second, Second, Winner, Second, Second and finally....Second. Told you I was not good at these lower class races. I really thought Captain Cargo was a decent wager for today off of today's mark. I think he could have possibly been given a little more of a positive ride, but that's racing. He will not be the price he was today next time out.
Not too much damage from my side thanks to a decent priced winner so can't complain. I do hope that at least some of you made a decent profit today.
Regards
Orion
mick
Sire
Tue 1st Southw 1.10 : Jack The Truth @ 8/1
Shows top off my figs @ +1 and in theory has been well placed because a small OR reduction enables him to scrape into this 0-75 off his OR 76 under the best possible weight terms @ 9-8. At 5yo Jack remains relatively lightly raced with 14 previous runs five of which came here and he won two of those and better still shows 1-2 over this CD.He runs off a 108 day break but has won after longer away albeit his maiden.His 3-9 draw should help enable a positive front run, a tactic which appears to suit and might also make matters more straightforward for the 7lb claimer on top.
The trainer is doing good and won a 42k race Dec 21st.His profile suggests that he is capable of producing winners after a break.The rider is an interesting booking starting as an amateur but now contesting as a proper apprentice and already scoring when riding against senior professional jockeys.She has ten winners to date and has received favourable comment from the RI race readers, currently she is 2-10 for this stable and her 7lbs nicely takes the sting out of Jacks top weight.She was also on board for his most recent run, so own that beach both Jessica and Jack.
Shows top off my figs @ +1 and in theory has been well placed because a small OR reduction enables him to scrape into this 0-75 off his OR 76 under the best possible weight terms @ 9-8. At 5yo Jack remains relatively lightly raced with 14 previous runs five of which came here and he won two of those and better still shows 1-2 over this CD.He runs off a 108 day break but has won after longer away albeit his maiden.His 3-9 draw should help enable a positive front run, a tactic which appears to suit and might also make matters more straightforward for the 7lb claimer on top.
The trainer is doing good and won a 42k race Dec 21st.His profile suggests that he is capable of producing winners after a break.The rider is an interesting booking starting as an amateur but now contesting as a proper apprentice and already scoring when riding against senior professional jockeys.She has ten winners to date and has received favourable comment from the RI race readers, currently she is 2-10 for this stable and her 7lbs nicely takes the sting out of Jacks top weight.She was also on board for his most recent run, so own that beach both Jessica and Jack.
A
Archived User Guest 1
Guest
Hi
mick.
Uttoxeter being a course where stamina is needed, especially on Soft ground. I looked at the 1.40 race with a lot of interest in The Ogle Gogle Man. I considered him to have the stamina to win today's renewal..
He won his first Chase over 3m 2f carrying 11.7. Although he only won by just over a length the first two were some 19 lengths clear of the remainder, this was a decent effort. He went straight into my notebook as a possible winner next time out if placed correctly and conditions were to his liking, which they were today. I felt that the race today was just right for him.
As for the remaining horses mick, I would rather they stay in my second records spreadsheet in bold RED as a reminder to leave these lower class races alone in future.
Regards
Orion
mick.Uttoxeter being a course where stamina is needed, especially on Soft ground. I looked at the 1.40 race with a lot of interest in The Ogle Gogle Man. I considered him to have the stamina to win today's renewal..
He won his first Chase over 3m 2f carrying 11.7. Although he only won by just over a length the first two were some 19 lengths clear of the remainder, this was a decent effort. He went straight into my notebook as a possible winner next time out if placed correctly and conditions were to his liking, which they were today. I felt that the race today was just right for him.
As for the remaining horses mick, I would rather they stay in my second records spreadsheet in bold RED as a reminder to leave these lower class races alone in future.
Regards
Orion
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