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Daily Racing Insight

Backers of Defi Du Seuil for this year’s Queen Mother Champion Chase ought to get a wee bit back tomorrow when he goes for a repeat win in the Shloer Chase.

He has a tougher task than last November, facing the 2020 Arkle winner, and Rouge Vif who romped home like a much improved horse last time – three weeks ago here at Cheltenham.

Arkle winner Put The Kettle on has won twice here and is improving. She gets 10lbs from Defi too, and given how soft the ground has gone, must be Defi’s main danger. Her trainer De Bromhead had been on the cold list until Holymacapony won today (Saturday).

I mention the ground because the connections of Rouge Vif feel that he is at his best on goodish ground. Jockeys today were saying it was quite hard work at Cheltenham even before the rain brought a going change (soft from good to soft). There is only light rain forecast between now and this race tomorrow, so it might not get worse. Still it’s hard enough to beat a multiple grade one winner when you have everything going for you, and Rouge Vif does not.

The ground won’t bother Defi at all; it ought to help as his stamina is not in doubt. We just need to hope that his Queen Mother Champion Chase run in March was simply an off day.

The 1.50 would just have been a watching race for me until I saw the price available about Yala Enki. 7/1 is too big given that his yard is far and away in the best form versus the other trainers in this. He has a wee bit of class about him (7th of 16 in last year’s Gold Cup) and the advantage of one of the best staying chase jockeys riding in Bryony Frost. The ground will be fine too.

Big River has run well at two festivals, but was pulled up in this last year, has a dicky heart, and doesn’t always jump cleanly. Six of his seven wins came at Kelso (Ayr the other). West Approach has forgotten how to win, and Discorama might also be on the way to that sort of badge too. Seems to run well often but it’s two years since he has won.

The improver Captain Drake could prove his main rival in receipt of a stone, with the excellent young Brian Carver taking off 5lbs more. But at 7/1 Yala Enki EW looks like a solid bet.

Good luck.

Yala Enki EW 7/1. Bet365 1.50 Cheltenham

Defi Du Seuil win only 15/8 Skybet 2.15 Cheltenham
 

ardnehue

Mare
1.50 Cheltenham
cols e to j
bha performance rating of last 6 runs(only chases shown)...compared to OR today.

cols k to p..
bha performance rating compared to OR ran off on that day.

cols q to v... race type on last 6 runs

most recent shown first.

This is not as good as going through the Form sheet on Chesham class rating but doing a full days racing
could cut to show something to further investigate

no bha performance figures for Irish races

1605443324658.png
 
Poor old Defi looks to have a back problem that's only obvious under racing conditions. He cat hopped the first and did little better at most of the others as far as flexing his spine went. I wonder if that was what was bothering him in the Queen Mother Champion Chase? Not sure we will see him again this season.
 
I'm in the syndicate that owns See The Eagle Fly who won on her debut over hurdles. She runs tomorrow in the 2.30 Leicester, up in class and giving everything 5lbs due to her penalty. She's up against it, but I think she could have learned a lot from Fontwell and if she is held up longer (see seems quirky) could win this. That's my own judgement, though, and there'll be bias built in. Trainer Whittington can only say that her prep has gone well.

We had no word from the yard last time either, but she was backed from 12s to 9/2. Yard said they had no part in that, and given she's gone from an opening 6/1 to 7/2 pretty quickly this evening with Bet365, I'm at a loss again, even though 6s was probably a bad call by the traders there.

Anyway, give her a cheer for me, will you?

All the best.
Joe
 

tacker

Mare
I'm in the syndicate that owns See The Eagle Fly who won on her debut over hurdles. She runs tomorrow in the 2.30 Leicester, up in class and giving everything 5lbs due to her penalty. She's up against it, but I think she could have learned a lot from Fontwell and if she is held up longer (see seems quirky) could win this. That's my own judgement, though, and there'll be bias built in. Trainer Whittington can only say that her prep has gone well.

We had no word from the yard last time either, but she was backed from 12s to 9/2. Yard said they had no part in that, and given she's gone from an opening 6/1 to 7/2 pretty quickly this evening with Bet365, I'm at a loss again, even though 6s was probably a bad call by the traders there.

Anyway, give her a cheer for me, will you?

All the best.
Joe
Steeplechasing Steeplechasing You will know that the 2nd ran a good 3rd the other day at chelt behind DUFFLE COAT who is already 2nd fav for the triumph next march. Hard to put a number to these juveniles but my guess would be about 130 which would be fair old target to go at, both skelton and king are represented here but the 5lb penalty wouldn't worry me. best of luck.
 
Poor old Defi looks to have a back problem that's only obvious under racing conditions.

I was on him myself Steeplechasing Steeplechasing , but I was really hoping/ expecting him to be pulled up after that jump at the first.
My instant reaction was he's done sme damage on landing and why the hell did he jump like that.

Luke Harvey did say the horse has done it before, so I need to do more research.

best of luck tomorrow
 
Thanks to all. Voice message from Whittington this morning which I'll paraphrase:

She looks great and prep has been perfect. It's always hard to follow up under a penalty but she'll be ridden like the best horse in the race, around midfield early, trying to avoid newcomers who might make mistakes. If she finishes in the first three I'll be happy and she will then go to Aintree for a Mare's Listed race in early December.

Joe
 
doomster doomster, Luke and the others at ITV are getting pretty sloppy. Yes, Defi has done similar before on the very odd occasion and not nearly as badly as he did at the first yesterday. He bumped Geraghty up after a couple of fences at Ascot last season; that's probably what Luke was referring to. Had any of them watched the rerun they'd have seen Defi did not flex properly at any fence, something that was patently obvious going down the far side where he was almost straight backed at most of them.

Hobbs put the pull up down to tiredness. Seriously? He's had this horse all its racing life and he believes he had it so unfit it had to be pulled up?

The horse was never a good jumper of hurdles. I suspect there has been a small physical problem somewhere that has steadily got worse and is only seen at racing pace over proper fences. Where the problem is, who knows, but it's his back that's being affected by it. At the fourth yesterday he jinked both ways just before the fence as though looking for a way out. I'd bet a large amount there is something causing him pain at his fences.

As far as Luke and Co are concerned, I had to laugh when AP and Fitzy grandly pronounced that Harry Bannister had been run away with in the last and that the others would easily pass him. Anyone paying an ounce of attention could see Harry had kicked away deliberatley to steal at least 7 lengths, which, when he saw the others weren't bothered, he soon increased to about 15. Throw in a couple of breathers, and job's done.

Did any of the 'team' pick up Fitzy and AP after the race, or did those two apologise to Bannister? Not in my hearing.
 
See The Eagle Fly: Thanks for the good wishes today. G Sheehan said the race didn't go her way given her keenness and his plan to avoid inexperienced horses. Couldn't drop her in behind a bunch and was left exposed on the outside. Slickly jumped herself into contention much too soon given that she's probably best delivered late. Tired, but kept on. Aintree next month awaits!
 

tacker

Mare
See The Eagle Fly: Thanks for the good wishes today. G Sheehan said the race didn't go her way given her keenness and his plan to avoid inexperienced horses. Couldn't drop her in behind a bunch and was left exposed on the outside. Slickly jumped herself into contention much too soon given that she's probably best delivered late. Tired, but kept on. Aintree next month awaits!
Touched 1.56 in running, she ran way below her debut win.
 
I wouldn’t have a big bet, but Nelson River looks to be twice the price he should be in the 2.40 Ascot today, and given the shortness of the favourite, Buzz, I’d say the real value lies in EW.

Nelson River usually runs in better class races than this, albeit he hasn’t won one. This time last year he was in the Fighting Fifth, and although last of 5 there, he registered his highest Racing Post Rating. Perhaps the most notable insight that gives is it was heavy ground. Two of his top four hurdle ratings are on heavy, but because his prominent finishes have been on better ground, he’s been dubbed a good ground horse. Ascot today as soft and described by Nicky Henderson as tiring.

I think it’s worth noting too that this is Nelson River’s first time right handed over jumps. That can sometimes affect a horses performance markedly, though not always in a positive way. We shall see.

Bet365 offer 28/1 to 3 places.
 
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