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Daily Racing Insight

mlmrob

Sire
BBOLD 4.33 SEDGEFIELD

One of my favourite meetings of the season takes place at Sedgefield today and of course the Durham National. It started in the 90s as a 0-125 and was worth 10k to the winner so it was a nice prize. Today its a 0-145 with 15k to the winner, 3k less than in recent years. I have two trends for the race which for the first year have not selected anything but it is interesting that Dr Newland has his first runner in the race since 2017. Considering he is 3-5 in the race plus has also saddled a second it looks like a target. Dr Newland has a 34% strike rated at Sedgefield with all his runners and that improves to 47% during the months of August to November. Even though he hasn't had a runner in the Durham National since 2017, his record at the track since then reads 5-8. In fact when Rikoboy lost earlier this month, it was the first time Dr Newland travelled home without a winner since 2016.

Horses that leave Dan Skelton's yard are generally bottomed out but BBold has bucked that trend by winning a 0-115 off 116. The form isn't special but his third to Princeton Royale is on a different page to his rivals. He was 6ls behind Young Wolf, rated 134, and that horse has won since off 4lbs higher and is now rated 142. He was just over 2ls in front Fidux who won a 0-145 yesterday and 7ls in front of Shoal Bay who won a 0-140 the other day. Bbold was beaten 2ls by rising star Manofthemountain last time who was winning the fourth of his last five chases. The winner was given a Performance Rating of 137 so in receipt of 5lbs the handicapper may well have underestimated Bbold giving him a rating of 127.

Last time out winners of a chase are 0-29 in this so Duc De Grissay, Doing Fine and Theligny have a major stat to overcome.

Horses that finished eighth or worse or didn't finish are 2-45 with the last winner in 2011.

That stat on its own narrows the field to four. However, Bbold is only a 6yo and will have bags of improvement in him and it looks like the good doctor has targeted this race.

Dr Newland also saddles Mr Muldoon in a cracking novice chase at 3.25
 

mjay

Gelding
Gin Coco makes his UK debut for Charlie Mann in the 4.00 Sedgefield following a solitary start in France. Apparently sold for 80,000 euros the trainer has a good record with 4yo hurdlers but I doubt he will be given a hard race on debut and he faces a solid and well supported rival in Jack Yeats, whose run at Limerick in June behind the two market leaders has a solid look. Three out of the first 5 have since won.

oneeee.jpg

jack yeats.jpg
 

tacker

Stallion
Slightly worrying thing for me is that when i looked at this race last night i wrote BBOLD off and was surprised to see it was fav, fwiw the one i liked was DOING FINE even though he is a little high in the ratings now.
No bet, good luck.
 

Bold Gait

Gelding
BBOLD 4.33 SEDGEFIELD

One of my favourite meetings of the season takes place at Sedgefield today and of course the Durham National. It started in the 90s as a 0-125 and was worth 10k to the winner so it was a nice prize. Today its a 0-145 with 15k to the winner, 3k less than in recent years. I have two trends for the race which for the first year have not selected anything but it is interesting that Dr Newland has his first runner in the race since 2017. Considering he is 3-5 in the race plus has also saddled a second it looks like a target. Dr Newland has a 34% strike rated at Sedgefield with all his runners and that improves to 47% during the months of August to November. Even though he hasn't had a runner in the Durham National since 2017, his record at the track since then reads 5-8. In fact when Rikoboy lost earlier this month, it was the first time Dr Newland travelled home without a winner since 2016.

Horses that leave Dan Skelton's yard are generally bottomed out but BBold has bucked that trend by winning a 0-115 off 116. The form isn't special but his third to Princeton Royale is on a different page to his rivals. He was 6ls behind Young Wolf, rated 134, and that horse has won since off 4lbs higher and is now rated 142. He was just over 2ls in front Fidux who won a 0-145 yesterday and 7ls in front of Shoal Bay who won a 0-140 the other day. Bbold was beaten 2ls by rising star Manofthemountain last time who was winning the fourth of his last five chases. The winner was given a Performance Rating of 137 so in receipt of 5lbs the handicapper may well have underestimated Bbold giving him a rating of 127.

Last time out winners of a chase are 0-29 in this so Duc De Grissay, Doing Fine and Theligny have a major stat to overcome.

Horses that finished eighth or worse or didn't finish are 2-45 with the last winner in 2011.

That stat on its own narrows the field to four. However, Bbold is only a 6yo and will have bags of improvement in him and it looks like the good doctor has targeted this race.

Dr Newland also saddles Mr Muldoon in a cracking novice chase at 3.25
I didn't know you had covered this race mlmrob mlmrob . I posted up seperately on the IS. I went for Bbold as well. Lets hope it comes in!
 

mlmrob

Sire
David Bridgwater is 7-18 at this meeting which improves to 7-13 with those going off at 6/1 or less. One of those qualifiers was the 9/2 outsider in a 4 horse race. The record improves to 5-8 in handicap chases.Bridgwater sends three to Plumpton today Enrichisaant, Zamani and Moans Cross and it is the latter that Im interested in.

Moans Cross is 1-11 under NH Rules but was possibly lucky to finish second last time or was unlucky not to win whichever way you look at his form. He was hampered by Mines A Pint when that horse fell at the second last and whether Moans Cross would have beaten that horse is open to debate. However, he still finished well to get within half a length of Elkstone who was winning the race for the second year running. That race had an AOR of 107 and he drops into a race with an AOR of 96 though he does have an extra 9lbs physical weight to carry. The handicapper gave him 2lbs for that run to take him to 100. He looked like he may have won off 103 earlier this summer. He was 20ls clear when he fell with six fences to jump and the winner of that race has won again off 8lbs higher. He is up to 26.5f, has won over 23.5f, and the more sedfate pace will suit Moans Cross. Bridgwater won this in 2015 with The Yank who had an alarmingly similar profile in as much he fell when clear at Sedgefield then finished second in a better race before winning this. Bridgwater hasn't had a runner in this race since and he is 2-2 in the contest.
 

mjay

Gelding
mlmrob mlmrob Thanks for the in-depth analysis as usual - best of luck with Moans Cross.

It is a very interesting idea to use a horse who has repeated a previous year's victory as a benchmark. We can reasonably assume that the horse was fit, trying and suited by conditions. Any runner getting close would then as you point out warrant close inspection on their subsequent starts.
 

mlmrob

Sire
SUTTERS MILL 2.00 LUDLOW. (Each Way)

This is an awful race but something has to win and with the front end of the market stocked with bottlers, there looks to be some value lower down.

Sutter Mill has pulled up in his last three races but he is back on the mark he won off in this week last year. That day he beat Love The leader with 33ls back to the third. He went into that race after pulling up in his previous race and he does have a set pattern. His record in his second race after returning from a break of 120 days or more reads 2-9. However, that improves if his second run back is within 90 days of his previous race to 2-5 and again in handicaps to 1231, reaching the frame four times.

Pembroke House was second in this two years ago on his seasonal debut off a mark of 97. Last year he was beaten about 5ls in a 0-105 at Uttoxeter on his seasonal debut. He has never won when fresh but has placed three times and he is going to give Trumps Benefit something to think about up front.

Trumps Benefit was tilting at windmills last time when made favourite for a 0-120. This is more his level but he only won at Worcester a year ago because Montys Award fell in a heap on the run in. He didn't quicken. And that's the key, he doesn't quicken and the fact he is 0-5 off marks above that winning 93 doesn't help. He was beaten 11ls on his only visit to Ludlow though he did win his point on a right handed track.

Peters Portrait was made favourite for his chasing debut at Hexham but it was no surprise he got beat. Even though he is 1-1 in ptps he beat a field of horses that have mustered one win between them since then, none had won a race going into that Moira maiden. Longsdon has booked Will Kennedy who is bang out of favour at the minute and with just the one winner since the restart, 1-23, the winner was a 11/10 shot in July. To be fair to Kennedy they have been mainly rags that he has ridden. Kennedy last rode a winner for Longsdon five years ago.

The Happy Chappy hasn't won for three years and is 20lbs lower than his last win. He was beaten about 8ls at Sedgefield recently in a similar race to this off 97 so you can see the interest in him off 94. However, he doesn't carry weight well as he is 0-9, never placed, when carrying more than 11-5 and 0-13, one place, when carrying 11-4+.

The only winner to come out of Philip Hobbs yard in the last ten days was 8/13 and from 25 runners, it would appear he is a tad out of form. The only good thing I can say about Hurlestone Point is she is by Scorpion who is doing well with his female offspring at the minute. She was beaten half the track at Wincanton a week ago in a similar race but she did finish ten lengths in front of Poetic Presence.

Poetic Presence is 0-29 and soon to be 0-30.

Spock is a 15yo and he could be another who forces the pace. He hasn't won for three years but he will give Lorna Brooke a nice spin round the countryside.

Conclusion: An eight horse race, it makes perfect sense to back Sutters MIll each way. If they go at it up top from the off he might just manage to stay in touch with this lot. All four of his wins have come in races with an AOR of 103 or less which improves to 2-3 when rated 94-96. Pembroke House might give him most to do.
 

mjay

Gelding
mlmrob mlmrob best of luck with the above and thanks for sharing.

I note Sutter's Mill did win here as a novice over C/D/G 2 years ago in November beating The Ogle Gogle man who subsequently completed a double.
As you probably know he's been placed on all 4 attempts over this distance/class so the EW does looks the safer option.

Hope you don't mind be chipping in.

rob.jpg

In the 14.07 At Thurles the market is dominated by the odds on Mullins horse which may allow a little each-way value on O'Brien's Lunar Display. He has an excellent record when introducing maiden hurdlers on this type of ground.
 
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mjay

Gelding
Not very inspiring price but if Andy Dufresne can translate his hurdle form to fences he should win the 3.50 Wexford.
The trainer is 100% when the price is 1.7 or lower however his losers overall have come when the horse is facing it's chase debut so conflict here.
opopopoop.jpgpopopopopo.jpg

In the 5.30 Newcastle I thought Outraged showed a glimmer of a return to form on his penultimate start. He's got a propensity to mess up the start which is a problem over 5f on the AW but H Doyle is booked for the first time so perhaps she can work some magic.
 
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