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Daily Racing Insight

markfinn

Sire
SKY PIRATE 4.10 WETHERBY

The Bobby Renton was Sky Pirate's target last season and he was travelling much the best when tipping up at the fourth last. He had a quiet campaign after that so not to affect his official rating and he arrives back at Wetherby off the same mark as last year. There is a tenuous form line that says Sky Pirate can't beat Storm Control but Storm Control may well end up in a pace battle. Sky Pirate is owned by Martin Tedham hence the booking of Nick Schofield.
Sky Pirates record on his seasonal debut reads 112F and considering he would have been first or second when he fell in this last year it looks like the time to catch him is fresh. He was cantering all over The Young Master a couple of years ago when he was brought down at Cheltenham and although he has yet to win a chase he has four seconds from 8 starts.
It is a competitive renewal but Sky Pirate could well be a 140s horse and off 132 he has to be supported.

The Bobby Renton is steeped in history with it run in the memory of the Ripon trainer who trained the 1950 Grand National winner Freebooter in front of half a million people packed into Aintree. Health and safety would have something to say about that these days. Lurline Brotherton who owned Freebooter was the owner who sold Red Rum for 6k after Bobby paid £1400 to buy him out of a seller. There are a few trainers/owners who like to win this race because of its historic connection and Jonjo is one of them.
Ran well enough to grab a tired second - take nothing away from the winner won really well - course looked really well considering the weather we have had
 

mjay

Colt
A few more trainer/track pointers. The strike rates were attained using a maximum Industry Starting Price (ISP) stipulation which I have marked.
Above this the ROI and strike rate may decline markedly and caution advised.

2.10 Wincanton - Deer Hunter isp 3.5 - unsteady market and nearing this point, strike rate drops markedly above this
one.jpg

4.03 Tramore Axiomatic - no isp limit although caution as jumps debut
two.jpg


4.11 Carlisle No Risk des flos isp 3.5 caution as bumper debutant
three.jpg


5.45 Southwell - Jebel Dukhan isp 3.5 - caution it's Prescott in a non-handicap...
four.jpg

 

mlmrob

Sire
CATTERICK DASH 3.45 CATTERICK

Two trends have stood out in this race. Both are to do with the official rating and physical weight. There have been 16 renewals.

14-16 WINNERS RAN OFF A MARK BETWEEN +2 AND -2 FROM THEIR LAST RACE.
Those outside that range are 2-58 and you have to go back to 2010 to find the last winner.

14-16 WINNERS CARRIED BETWEEN 3LBS AND 12LBS LESS PHYSICAL WEIGHT THAN THE TOP WEIGHT.
Those outside that range are 2-85 and the last winner was in 2013.

Combining both trends has resulted in finding 13 of the 16 winners from 98 selections. Since the race was upgraded to its current standard in 2012 these trends have found seven of the last eight winners including the last six with a profit achieved of 26 points.

Lord Riddiford and Justanotherbottle are the two qualifiers this year.

Im not sure if Lord Riddiford benefitted from the draw last Saturday when fourth at York as five of the first seven home were drawn 13 or higher. Whichever way you look at it it was a cracking prep run for this and the handicapper has dropped him 1lb so he is now back on his last winning mark. His record off marks less than 90 reads 5-9 and at 10/1 or less that improves to 1111261. The sixth was at Southwell which he didn't handle the track.

Justanotherbottle has been struggling this season as he has been too high in the weights. He was third to the ill fated National Anthem and Wentworth Falls at Ayr and both horses subsequently won franking the form. He is yet to place in three races on soft or heavy. He did finish third in a Nursery at Catterick but all six of his wins have come on straight tracks. He is 0-18 with just four places when the penalty value is above 13k and he is passed over.

Musicka is 0-6 with one place in the race after a win. he is 0-25off marks of 89 or higher though he has placed seven times.

Broken Spear hasn't won for two years but his consistency means he is on his highest mark of 2020. He is 1-17 in handicaps and his record off marks of 80+ reads 0-16 with five places. However, one of those places was in this last year off 86.

Count Dorsay is 8lbs higher than when he won this last year. He is 0-7 off marks above 91 though he has two places to his name. He was beaten half a length off 96 a couple of runs back which suggests he has to find a length improvement to take this. He could well do that but the booking of Graham Lee doesn't inspire as he is 0-28 with just four places for Tim Easterby. Lee is 7-84 over 5f at Catterick and on the six occasions he has been on the widest drawn horse he has finished unplaced.

Rayong is yet to place in four races on good to soft or soft and encounters heavy for the first time. It might not be a problem as he is by Mayson but he is still 4lbs higher than his win in the summer. He will run his race.

Dark Shot is 0-4 when he has turn left and he is 0-32 when the penalty value exceeds 10k.

Copper Knight has unplaced twicee both times he has encountered heavy ground. However, 7 of his 8 wins have come on flat tracks and he is 0-6 with one place on an undulating track.

Militia won three in a row in the summer and the handicapper is in charge now judging by his last three races. He is 0-9 with just two places when carrying 9-1 or less and is yet to place in four races at 0-95 or better.

Terentum Star pops up now and again and is well handicapped on his overall form. However, he is yet to get within 5ls of a winner this summer and looks on the downgrade.

Conclusion: John Quinns horses are running out of their skin at the minute and Lord Riddiford looks to have the perfect profile. Only one horse has won this from off the pace in recent years so it is going to pay to be prominent. Normally I would have dismissed him on the ground but he handled soft really well at York last week and Lord Riddiford looks solid in a field full of runners with doubts hanging over them.
 
Stradivarius is a horse I’ve never got right and I’m running a net loss on – bear that in mind when I say I cannot see him beaten today. Many, including the bookies, seem to have taken his last two defeats at face value and priced him at odds against. In my reality he might as well have stayed at home for those last two events.

In his Arc ‘prep’, the Prix Foy, they went no pace and he ended up losing out in a two furlong sprint. In The Arc he ended up in another sprint in heavy ground, his jockey inexplicably having chosen to sit behind a funereal pace for 80% of the race. To still hope to win after that is like having a boxing strategy against Mike Tyson of allowing him to punch you unhindered for 9 rounds with you coming back to knock him out in the 10th.

Stradivarius is the best stayer we have and he’s back at a staying trip. He ought to be 8/13 here and I have taken the 6/5. You should do the same.

With nothing approaching the same confidence I have backed Serpentine EW at 14s (Skybet, 4 places) for the Champion Stakes. I think he’d have gone really well in The Arc, so this might be on the short side, even in this ground. But his price is too high, and so is that of Pyledriver whose connections might, by happy accident, found exactly the right trip for him in this ground. But he had a really hard race at Doncaster and this could be a slog today. I’ve had a small saver win only anyway at 14s.

Good luck.
 
A very detailed write up mlmrob mlmrob and lots to back up your selection.

Copper Knight is the worry for me. It is really well handicapped judging on it's win last year and has won on soft ground. Easterby's other runner won this race last year, but is 8lbs worse off today. Is it improving enough to take this with top weight? Always a difficult decision to make when considering two runners from the same stable! CK was 4th in this race two years ago off 98 and today it is on 90.
Form wise it is difficult and not like how I like it to pan out. Haydock 26th september all three ran in the same race. Copper Knight finished ahead of Lord Riddiford in that one, BUT the going was not soft and The fav in todays race was second.

So, I would dutch the two proportionately as the odds are quite generous enough.

Lord Riddiford 5/1
Copper Knight 6/1

Of course what might happen now is that the Count comes in and gives us both a good slapping :D
 
Sorry for the after timing Steeplechasing Steeplechasing , but I'm going through the stress of watching the Liverpool Derby.

My son asked me for my advice as he had a free bet on the Stayers race, even though he only bets on football.

Even though I had no view on the race, I thougt Stradivarious was the obvious choice if recovered.

I did stress to him that the horse was 7/9 in G2's which is impressive enough, but the two losing races was todays race.
 
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