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Daily Racing Insight

I was watching the footy at the same time, but my first thought was did they go too hard up front .

First two home were sat out the back and the 3rd was a 2 mile fibresand selling h/c winner.

Ravens Ark concerns me the most, but even though she hit 190 lto, the race was actually run to suit.
 

tacker

Gelding
2.30 sand
Given myself a headache with this race but it still might be a value bet race for me.

out of form DAVYDENKO (V 1st time) beaten over 16L both time this season,

Need to see HIGH END is still up to it.

Daft name GETCHA well back on first run albeit ascot.

MURAAD has been consistent this year but the now goes of a mark of 100 so i think he could be vulnerable.

HYANNA won this last year and showed her well being lto just losing out in a decent race at goodwood behind Look Closely.

VICTORY CHIME Had First Winter (winner since) behind when winning on seasonal debut, only up 2lbs for that and must be a player today.

GOOD BIRTHDAY has been a little frustrating this season inc finishing behind GETCHA in that ascot race, would need to bounce back.

MANDARIN Another that doesn't have any real recent form so hard to fancy today.

DATA PROTECTION I wanted to just write it off but not so easy when you dig a little deeper still i think he will just fall short.

MAORI KNIGHT only 3yr and gets 2 stone off the top one here, in truth i couldn't make much sense of his form but who knows.

My 2 against the field are HYANNA & VICTORY CHIME. so a little r f/c for me.
 
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mjay

Colt
T tacker yes quite the puzzler this one. I can see why you dismiss Davydenko but Stoute has won this race twice before and has a good record with top weights in class 2 handicaps (30%) If you look at his 2 previous winners they both had less than impressive last race profiles and both went in around the price Davydenko will start today (13/2 & 16/1)

As I mentioned on my "follow" thread Muraad comes from a race which has a poor nto record so I hope you are successful with last years winner & victory chime.
 

mick

Sire
Some advanced wishful thinking. :eek:

Fri 28th Ham 5.05 : Retirement Beckons @

An 8 fur 0-60 14 run. I am typing this Wen pm and the current ground is heavy with more rain fc so likely to remain so come the off. Retirement has run twice on this going winning a 0-65 during Aug last year and following up with a decent 3rd in this race off a 2lbs higher OR than the 51 he runs off this time. His other win came over this CD in a 13 run contest. Not a winsome or consistent animal but two placings during his last three runs in arguably unsuitable races suggest that he could now be ready to run to his best.

Tbh I am not a fan of fast turnouts but his 4 day return is proven having previously won after a 3 day " break". His 2 stall shows positive off the bare stats but I suspect the trainer would have preferred a wider box because his winning tactic appears to be held up however the experienced rider who does comparatively well at this track should know how to sort this. The stable run two with the other Chinese Spirit showing next best off my ratings but if my pick was a N/r I would not be backing him so enough said.

Re Dear Linda what can you say as her current season and long term stats are both poor. A sad 0-39 Ytd but looking at the past 14 years she has produced 164 winners with 40 of them coming at this track. I can recall a couple of good earns at big prices off her back so if Retirements odds appeal then I will be prepared to risk it because the animal comes here with the looks of one placed to win. I was rather surprised and disappointed to note that the early SL Bfc quoted 8/1 because i had set my map at 10/1 so hopefully the fiddlers will think otherwise.

Scraping the barrel for additional positives i note that this will be Retirements 5th run of the current season which is the same as his first win last year and his CD run last month earned the RI comment " 2lb higher than when last successful, did some stout work late in the piece and finished much closer to the winner that he did first time out". There is a likely Easterby hot pot 3yo in the race Temper Trap who is on a 3 timer and his chance is respected but his raise in grade and OR could mean he is there for the taking.

You have to wonder do the Gods mock us or have we brought it on ourselves because while writing the above Linda won her first race this year via the aforementioned Chinese Spirit in the last at Muss, but it could all prove a fuss over nothing as there is now a Fri 7am course inspection planned. Have to say the swear box is having a F***ing blinding year. :mad:
 
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ARECIBO

the key to Arecibo is small fields. He has only ever raced in fields of 8 or less runners three times and returned the figures 122. He gets in here off 96 and with Prince Des Sables and Jabbarockie sure to keep the pace true he will have something to aim at without meeting traffic.
David O Meara has done well in handicaps since the restart. In handicaps worth less than 12k he has returned 23-185. However, those that go off at 3/1 or less improve the figures to 13-30. In July the record read 111111233215143231.
Runs today in the 3.35 Sandown in a 5 runner race
 

tacker

Gelding
This thread has gone a little quiet recently but i'm interested in the york 1.30 which looks a tight little handicap but the two that stand out to me are Hamdams THIBAAN and TASAAMUH.

Thibaan won on his handicap debut at donny off a mark of 85 by 3/4 L, always well placed he hit the front just over a furlong out and stayed on well from a closing ST JUST with the other 4 runners close up. He carries 4lb more today so 89 and my reading of the form is that 89 is about right for what he's achieved, obviously he will be progressing but nothing too definite.

Tasaamuh having had just 3 runs might be more clearly open to improvement, she started at kemp where she finished 3rd in and around horses now rated 80, she then ran here at york and was beaten into 2nd 6L behind MY OBERON who is now a group horse 109 and perhaps the better guide could be the fact that a further 6l back in 3rd was SIDEREAL who then went on to win his maiden and is rated 78 so you could rate TASAAMUH around 88 for that imo. TAS then won at wolves 9 1/2 f with plenty in hand (again a matter of opinion) so learning as he goes.

Conclusion....I would rate them as being about the same standard with TAS being less exposed and getting 5lb off THIB who Crowley has chosen but jockeys have got it wrong before.
 
In the 3.25 at Fontwell. King Alfonso has now drifted to 16/1. Unless someone has unscrewed one of his legs then he’s at least twice the price he should be.

The 16s will be down to a combination of these: he’s now 11 years old. His last win was on soft (good today). And Dai Burchell isn’t a big name trainer (though his record here with just one runner on the card as he has today brings a nice profit) Despite his age he ran the best of his life on ratings when winning easily at Cartmel last time, seeming to enjoy the track.

This is his time of year. He’s had 13 runs in August/September and won 6 of them, far outstripping his record in other months when he has mustered just 3 wins from 33 runs.

This is his first run at Fontwell, where the twists and turns are at least reminiscent of Cartmel where he won last time.

Jockey Ben Jones is 4 from 9 on him. King Alfonso might not win, but he’s a fine value bet.

Good luck
Joe
 

Nellsman

Colt
Hi Guy's,
I think Tenbury Wells looks good in the 2:15 Newbury, he was unlucky LTO at Sandown just being caught on the line after overcoming a poor draw.

Good Luck today.
 
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