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Daily Racing Insight

Chesham

Sire
Has the highest LTO Performance Figure 75.7
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We have two runners in the 2m 4f conditions chase. Bachasson (Paul) ran a cracker in the Coral Cup at Cheltenham but hasn’t run over fences since last year’s Gold Cup. We are running him back a little soon but, with the uncertainty about how long racing can continue, we are letting him take his chance. He will like this ground and on his best form he has a great chance. Bonbon Au Miel (Danny) pulled up in a handicap chase at Naas a couple of weeks ago and would need to improve significantly to win today.
 
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mjay

Colt
I wondered if anyone has a view on the Trigger’s chance in the 4.30?

Although this looks slightly harder on OR he still seems reasonably well treated.

Can he recover as an 11yo (second oldest in field) after running just 2 days ago up the uphill finish on soft ground at Down Patrick? He has only raced twice within 10 days before achieving 1 place.

All his wins are on GF/G ground but the other day’s performance shows he is capable on the surface. Today sees him also return to a distance he has previously won at. In addition his narrow conqueror, Golden sunset was in good form.

Bacchasson is flagged as a qualifier under my Mullins system but mlmrob’s comments make me regard it with caution and the price does not appeal.
 

mick

Sire
Announced this afternoon. All Irish racing cancelled, until at least April 19th, When all measures in place in Ireland re: Virus will be reviewed.
This has sabotaged Mondays Racing Post headline " English punter lands a huge Lincoln touch as Insignia Of Rank backed from 66/1 > 5/2 wins by 3 lens" A Paddy Power spokesperson said "We can make no comment as post race our head of trading locked himself in the Loo, and remains there ( now under guard). Word is that mick mick has just bought his local Waitrose so that he can panic buy in peace. :)
 

mick

Sire
Trouble is mick mick it seems we are the only one's who think so.:D
Fair dues boring is not something i have ever been accused of. I have one of those rare life time good mates commencing from our teenage years, and to this day he persists in describing me as Unhinged unpredictable and unbalanced, usually followed by grossly exaggerated tales and examples. I still take serious exception to this because even now as then there is nothing wrong with my balance. :)
 
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arkle55

Sire
The sport of kings has always had conspiracy theories and is part of the attraction for me.

How much money in total was bet to win / lay in the days of where no one can get a bet on. From memory both horses were 1st and 2nd favs before flip flopping and now many accounts will now have been closed or reduced to 50p for the next bet. I have never heard of Johnny Ward but should someone not put him out of his misery and tell him this story has been done and dusted many times over the centuries.


Arkle
 

tacker

Gelding
ARISTO DU PLESSIS 4.30 CARLISLE

Aristo Du Plessis is thrown in here and drops into a 0-115. Rated 132 when he last won in December 2018, the horse has to have certain conditions to perform. He has won nine times in his career and all nine wins have come on good, good to soft and soft ground over 15.5f to 16.5f, 9-24.
It is though the class in which he performs that improves the figures. Eight of those nine wins have come off marks of 133 or less, 8-15, That improves in 0-135 or worse to 6-10 and it improves again to 6-8 at single figure odds. Is this backfitting a profile?

Anyway the two losses were a fall when clear and going well at four out and in the other he ended up in a pace battle and was cooked two out.

In November 2019 Aristo was fourth to Fransham in a a 0-130 off 124 carrying 11-6. He was beaten about 6ls but what was remarkable was the Ewart yard were under a cloud at the time and their horses were poorly and this fella led to the last. The first six home were rated between 122 and 130. With just 6lbs more physical weight on his back in a 0-115 and he is probably fit now as the Ewart horses are running really well, five winners in January, Aristo could get a solo on the front end here and he could be away and gone and master paceman Brian Hughes takes the ride.
I would just like to point everyone in the direction of this bit of form reading, simply put but left you in no doubt why this could win.

While i'm at it I recall TheBluesBrother TheBluesBrother highlighting a horse called SAMMY BILL and my reading of the form and watching the performance as set out in the piece convinced me he would win again.

Finally, i couldn't find ADDIS ABABA .............................?
 

mlmrob

Sire
ADDIS ABABA 4.50 AYR

Addis Ababa has performance figures between 85 and 89 in five of his last six races and is 3lbs well in today as he is due to go up to 88 on Saturday.
Six days ago, he run Scottish Summit to half a length and was terribly unlucky to bump into a horse running under his ideal conditions who had form figures 122122 under such. It was 3.5ls back to third. In his second last race Addis Ababa was third to Coolagh Forest in a 0-90 off 85. The winner was dropping two grades. But the performance that takes the eye is his second over 10.5f on soft ground at York in June where he recorded a performance figure of 89. Carrying 9-8 he failed by length to hold off Music Seeker and with the third, fourth, fifth, sixth and eighth all subsequently winning the form is rock solid.

Fannie By Gaslight is 1lb well in as she is due to go up to 76 from Saturday. She got 5lbs for this as the conditions of the race stated. Her record off marks above 70 reads 0-7 with three places and in one of those three places she recorded a performance figure of 79 albeit as a 3yo when third to Jedhi. She must improve to take this but that is possible.

Glasses Up only ever wins at Ayr and is 3-5 over 10f on good or quicker ground. He is yet to place in seven races over course and distance on good to soft or slower.

Employer has run over a variety of distances. He drops back to 10f today after running well over 13f the other day and his second to Stonific in March off 81 over 10f looks his best form of the season, performance figure of 81. Off a mark of 75 he has a chance, but he has struggled in both his races on soft and heavy. He couldn’t lift his feet out of the ground when fourth to Donnachies Girl on heavy earlier this summer in a 0-75 off 74.

Iron Mike couldn’t take advantage of the 7lbs WFA last time when second to Dreams And Visions over 13f and he got himself 4lbs for his efforts in that 0-70. He is massively up in grade and is yet to place in four races on good to soft or slower and yet to place in 7 races shorter than 12f.

Navigate By Stars looks like she has been bought to go hurdling and she has struggled in both her races on soft ground. She is also running off a mark in the 70s and she is yet to place in five races off marks that high.

Kilbarchan must have had a problem as this is her first race for almost a year. Mark Johnston’s record since 2016 with horses that have been off for 300 days+ reads 0-29 with just four places.

Athmad has dropped 15lbs in the weights this season which is unsurprising as he is a weak finisher and was rated far too high on what he had achieved. The handicapper has realised his mistake and his mark is dropping like a stone. Athmads fourth to Skyman in a 0-80 last time was his best performance of the season as his performance figures have seen him running at least 5lbs below his mark. That last performance rating was just 4lbs below his mark and with a another 2lbs drop from the handicapper he is getting close to winning again. Brian Meehan has sent the horse a long way to a track where he is 1-20.

Detachment only wins at Beverley and Pontefract and with two meetings in October at Pontefract, 7th and 21st, Detachment may well be getting ready for those meetings. He has unplaced in all three races on soft ground and with his mark now down to 73 he will have a choice of engagements at which he is 3-8.

Dancin Boy is 0-4 on good to soft or slower.

Flint Hill has never placed in six races beyond 7f.

Conclusion: Only a few will get into this and with Addis Ababa the only horse rated in the 80s in this 0-85, it does look a very good opportunity. He handles all the conditions and it will be run to suit as Kilbarchan is the only recognised front runner. Provided he doesn’t fall asleep in the stalls, cheekpieces look to have over relaxed him, he should be able to track the pace. He has clocked three speed figures in the 70s in his last five races compared to his rivals who have one between them. He won’t get a better chance of a win as he is due to go up to 88 this Saturday and will not be able to race at this level.
Finally, i couldn't find ADDIS ABABA .............................?
There you go T tacker
 
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