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Daily Racing Insight

mick

Sire
HorsePunter HorsePunter i posted the below on another part of the forum yesterday lunch time so your above gives added interest. My knowledge of Irish form is limited so it was good to read your above trainer insight.

The one who caused me to go in for a second look in next Sundays Lincoln was Insignia Of Rank but he now runs in a listed race tomorrow (Naas 4.0) the fav is fc odds on and WH have Insignia @ 28/1 so it will come as no surprise if he runs another poor race. After 4 runs without i note the BL have gone back on, and his two most recent wins came with same. He has won a decent hcap off a 6 day break and is now back to a winsome mark so the Lincoln participation might still be viable. ?
 

HorsePunter

Yearling
4.00 Naas - Insignia Of Rank - 40/1 (Paddy Power 1⁄4 odds 2 places) 10 e/w

Will quote bookies prices when putting up a selection because it's the handiest way. I generally mix and match with bigger priced horses, win part on exchange and place part with bookies to cover the win stake, so will keep it simple here.

Looking for an Opening Flat Day upset with this one, it's the fittest horse in the race (on paper) having had an AW run 24 days ago, the rest haven't been seen out in 6 months and more. It handles Heavy and Soft ground and has won over the trip. It has won a Listed race (race today is listed).

It runs off 97 today which is 6lbs lower than its highest ever mark and 4 lbs lower than its highest ever winning mark. The trainer (Murphy, calling him dodgy is being nice) retains a 25% share in this one which as a 5 year old is unusal for him, he's a dual purpose trainer who likes to sell his seemingly useless jumps horses that have been beaten out of sight when running for him, only to come out straight away and win for new connections. This one is a dedicated flat horse just to be clear but you get my drift, trainer is as cute as they come. It's his only runner at the meeting.

This is the type of horse I look out for to have small interest bets on for the first few weeks at the start of the Flat in both Ireland and the UK.

There's only 7 runners which is not great and I couldn't believe it was 40/1 with PP (16/1 only on Betfair exchange, 33's on 365 and 25's with skybet) and was more amazed when I was able to get a tenner each way on at 40's considering their exchange price.

OBrien has the odds on favourite that was beaten over the trip, has never run on heavy or soft ground, Welds could be anything, the rest of the field are no slouches. In truth if I was having a serious bet, I wouldn't go anywhere near this race, but like I said earlier, this is my modus operandi for certain races at the start of the flat, usually if I back like this each year on bigger priced ones, I wouldn't be too far behind with these type bets and can end up a nice few bob ahead. No point in posting up normal everyday bets 100 or 200 at 6/4 etc. I get as much enjoyment from these bets.

3.30 Naas - The King Of kells - 10/1 (Skybet 1⁄4 odds 4 places) 10 e/w

Also this one today, will not give overblown write up, but along similar lines to above, good trainer (Mulvaney), running with its highest ever mark, though has carried higher physical weight to win, loves heavy and soft ground, fit, trip not ideal (7f today) 6f 6½f ideal. At 4 Places will be surprised if not placed.

Trainer has 2 in the race ( In From The Cold) both are owned by his father Larry, not much diff between them on paper, both priced at around 10/1, but prefer my selection on Ground and fitness plus stable jockey opts for mine (having won on both), stable tend to bet late on their horses if having a gamble so no indication as of now. A couple of euro saver on the second horse to cover the original stake seems sensible.


Good Luck To All Today
 
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HorsePunter

Yearling
HorsePunter HorsePunter i posted the below on another part of the forum yesterday lunch time so your above gives added interest. My knowledge of Irish form is limited so it was good to read your above trainer insight.

The one who caused me to go in for a second look in next Sundays Lincoln was Insignia Of Rank but he now runs in a listed race tomorrow (Naas 4.0) the fav is fc odds on and WH have Insignia @ 28/1 so it will come as no surprise if he runs another poor race. After 4 runs without i note the BL have gone back on, and his two most recent wins came with same. He has won a decent hcap off a 6 day break and is now back to a winsome mark so the Lincoln participation might still be viable. ?
Sorry Mick, the reason my post re selection of Insignia Of Rank has gone from before your post to after is because I deleted my original post to repost it with my other selection for today included instead of editing it. Trainer is capable of anything with his horses, It just jumped out at me today due to the way I like to have interest bets early on in the flat season, I wasn't even aware of the Lincoln angle
 

mick

Sire
No worries HorsePunter HorsePunter i do not bet on Irish racing and only tend to look at the form when they are raiding one of our 0-60. Last week i attempted to work the Irish Lincoln just for the mental exercise. There is a case of sorts to be made for Insignia and your post Re his chance today just added to the interest. I note he has won previously @ 33/1 so best of for a 40/1 earn for yourself today, especially as you will be taking it off Paddy. :)

As you say he is not the most winsome of animals but at the Curragh he is 2-3 with BL has the class and currently runs under a reasonable 9.4 physical.
 

Chesham

Sire
Hi HorsePunter HorsePunter

RE: “It runs off 97 today which is 6lbs lower than its highest ever mark and 4 lbs lower than its highest ever winning mark”

Todays race is a non handicap
so not sure why the OR is relevant?? If it were a handicap would receive 20 lb from the O’Brien horse .
 
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mick

Sire
His last Hcap win was off OR 94 ( a decent large field contest by 2 lens and he ran to OR 98 off my figs) so if he still runs on Sunday he will be 3lbs higher but my numbers suggest that this is doable. The SH listed race win since then triggered an OR raise to 103 and in the seven runs since when he did not appear placed to win i wondered if the plan was all about getting that mark reduced to enable another quality Hcap win.

I have no stats or trends for the Irish Lincoln but when available it might be worth checking to see how he fairs in this respect.
 

mjay

Colt
There are a plethora of reasons I would normally avoid the 3.00 Naas – a 6 furlong, heavy ground handicap on the opening day of the Irish flat season. All this before you consider the “polluting” influence of Joseph O’Brien’s 3yo favourite with his whopping WFA. Still, in sparse times the little grey cells must be exercised and judging by the performance of recent picks mine are distinctly obese.

The race-fit fav will likely hose up but Mokhalad seemed a credible alternative – he’s 2 from 2 at Naas over this distance. Enthusiasm is tempered by the fact that all his wins (5) have occurred within 20 days of having a run. He has also failed 4 times on soft and 3 times when facing heavy ground.

Arcanears has also been running consistently well on the AW, but is 9lbs higher when running second in a more valuable C/D handicap at this meeting last year. Like Mokhalad all his wins have come within 20 DSLR.

Looking further down I found it interesting that Titanium Sky has been kept with Dermot Weld as a 4yo. Relative to this field he was highly tried as a 3yo, with runs in listed and Group3 class.

Today’s handicap debut either suggests he is a disappointment drinking at the last-chance saloon or a more pragmatic assessment of his talent. He has run over longer distances; this is his first attempt at a sprint so his mark is difficult to assess. He won his maiden after a break of 193 days so can go well fresh. That race has seen multiple listed, group and handicap winners emerge from it so the horse is clearly useful.
 
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mlmrob

Sire
DARK VADER 3.00 NAAS

Dark Vader has form in the book that puts him well in by a few pounds here plus the WFA of 13lbs plus the 7lbs of the next superstar in Irish racing, Dylan Browne McMonagle, it is going to take a massive effort to beat him.
Dark Vader was second to Auchterarder at Lingfield in February giving that horse 3lbs. Auchterarder had gone into that race on the back of a third to Maystar in which he had Raaeb just behind him. Raaeb went on to finish runner up in the listed Spring Cup to Malotru who had been fifth in the Mill Reef to Pierre Lapin and fourth to Threat in the Gimcrack. The formline is strong.
Dylan Browne McMonagle won the Dingle Derby when he was 12 years old in 2015. It attracted the attention of AP McCoy who has been training the lad. This kid is the real deal.
It was one of the best pace reading performances I have ever seen. He let the pace setters go and brought Five Stone Of Lead with a beautifully timed run. He is in the yellow sleeves near the back.

See for yourself here



 
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Graeme

Dam
DARK VADER 3.00 NAAS
Dark Vader has form in the book that puts him well in by a few pounds here plus the WFA of 13lbs plus the 7lbs of the next superstar in Irish racing, Dylan Browne McMonagle, it is going to take a massive effort to beat him.
Hi mlmrob mlmrob I can see the attraction but a concern I would have is DV has only performed on firmer ground or standard AW - and according to Proform the Sire was not a lover of softer ground as well - is that something you would take into account generally?
 

Graeme

Dam
Graeme Graeme Dark Vader - Good second on G/S at this course last June to Royal Lytham - subsequent winner of group 2 July Stakes and 3rd in group 1 Phoenix Stakes on soft ground
Thanks I was looking at HRB:

1584967282942.png

1584967349632.png

This doesn't show the Phoenix Stakes does it? A tad concerning as I feed HRB going performances into the sheets I use! I missed the gd/yeilding but possibly can see why I said what I did
 
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