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    Ark Royal
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    It really is frustrating when the forum slows down or Server Error 500 pops up.

    Apparently the hosts acknowledge there is a problem.
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Daily Racing Insight

I am on Fareeq 15/2 Ladbrokes Boost each way of course.

This horse dwelt last time, still had Superseded beaten a quarter length behind.
Fareeq has 7lbs off his back tonight.
Pierre Louis- Jamin retains the ride.
In the last year when Fareeq runs at this trip and venue, he places.
Still has young legs.
Good draw.

Hopefully if it doesn't have a poor start I feel 15/2 seems good value.
 

mlmrob

Sire
DING DING 3.15 PLUMPTON (Each Way)

Ding Ding has a decent record in this race, won it in 2017, second in 2018 and third last year. That record goes along with her trainer's record in Class 4 Handicap Hurdles over 25f+ at Plumpton which since 2017 reads 121631. Ding Ding is still 3lbs higher than her highest winning mark but she has finished second off 110 a couple of times. I did initially think connections were prepping her for a race at the end of the month that she won last year but the handicapper isn't going to give her a 4lbs drop so she can qualify for that 0-105. That suggests the intention is to run well in this better race as Ding Ding was third off 114, beaten 4ls, over 25f in December. She should be thereabouts.
 

mick

Sire
I have been busy this morning snagging some of this, but the 11/1 is still aval. I have just seen on ATR that Timeform have also puffed the chance.

Sat 15th Newc 8.0 : Kupa River @ 11/1

A 6 fur 0-75 with 12 run. During his four most recent runs this 6yo appears to have lost his way but i am hoping Gaming was the cause and there is evidence to suggest that this may be so. Three of those runs came over 7fur > when his best AW form is at 6 fur and the 4th was in a 0-90. This has bought an 8lb OR reduction which certainly creates a positive chance at the weights. His CD score of 0-2 can be turned around by allowing for the fact that both where above his proven grade but the 8Nov19 run when 5th - 14 does provide a relevant rating. It could also be argued that drawn 13 when the first three home came from the 1 5 3 boxes that his 1.5 len bt distance was better than it looks.

This time he exits from the 7 box which gives better options and looking at same size fields 2 of the last 3 have seen the winner come from the 7 and 6 stalls. The stable appears in good heart and Newc is there most winsome track. At the 4 day dec stage Ben Curtis was already shown as booked and as he was the most recent to win on the animal both are seen as positives. Kupa appears placed to win this 0-75 with to my mind the gamble involved being where those poor recent runs a case of genuine regression or gaming to buy a winning mark.? With no other of interest to myself in the race then a decent price offered against Kupa will induce me to pay in order to find out.

WH Play extra early and there 11/1 appears fair.
 

tacker

Gelding
newc 8.00
Another tough race to work out and not easy to see where the pace will come from, I can well see how KUPA is down to a winning number but eventually fell back on seeing if the times might help and fell in with DE BRUYNE HORSE but it's a no bet race for me.
good luck.
 

tacker

Gelding
RI = Raceform Interactive : SS = Split Second : SF = Speed Figs
IC

My approach to times or speed figures is just use them as a little back-up to the form book and i only use ATR (ATTHERACES).

Looking ay KUPA I read....................8th nov c/d ................1m 12.46s
DE BRUYNE..........................................................................1m 12 37s

So little in it but BRUYNE hadn't run for 190 days so maybe he can improve, hopefully a few more members can offer something more logical on the race.
 
I have something of an addiction to improving horses. Once they win, they ought to be followed until beaten. If I had to put up a classic example of spotting an improver right at the start of a winning curve it is Lord Du Mesnil. Before beginning his hat trick (Newcastle 30th November), Lord Du Mesnil was 0 from 23 runs and rated 122. He runs today off 147.

Trainer Richard Hobson puts the improvement down to confidence after Lord Du Mesnil won a comparatively small race at Newcastle. He said the gelding became a completely different character, even at home. Watching his appetite and enthusiasm (the biggest pointers by far to an improving horse) in two subsequent wins (both here at Haydock) makes it difficult to argue with Hobson and strengthens the theory that horses know when they have won.

The ground and trip won't be a problem. It's his toughest task but I will back him today and if he wins will keep following him. He's 13/2 with Bet365 as I write (12.38)

I'll be an observer only in the big Ascot Chase at 2.25. Having tipped Red Indian last time, I see there is money for him again. But if a horse cannot deliver the first time the cash is down (25/1 to 5/1 last time) it usually proves very expensive to become a follower.

A final comment on the Haydock Grand National Trial: I've always though that if a horse could be custom-designed for the modern Grand National it was Elegant Escape. A touch of class, brave and consistent, a horse who knows how to get himself over a fence despite being no Altior and stays forever. Yet Tizzard cannot resist sending him here today in desperate ground where everything that finishes will have a hard race. The winner will very probably leave his Grand National chances in the mud today.

Nigel Twiston-Davies is another from the Tizzard mould, probably worse. He sent Blaklion here two years back as favourite for the National to hump 11.12. I can still see him now trying to climb over the last. The horse never won again. In fact he was never placed again having been most consistent throughout his career. It astounds me that some highly successful trainers have this blind spot and often cannot leave a healthy horse in his box as an investment for a much bigger day.
 

mlmrob

Sire
GRAND NATIONAL TRIAL 3.15 HAYDOCK

Two trends stand out over the last 12 years.

12-12 WINNERS HAD RUN IN BETWEEN 5 AND 14 CHASES.

10-12 WINNERS HAD AN OFFICIAL RATING BETWEEN 138 AND 149.

Combining the two trends has found the winners on 10 occasions from just 48 selections and a profit of of 48 points achieved. The trends have found the last five winners.

This year, Lord Du Mesnil, The Two Amigos and Steely Addition qualify.

Lord Du Mesnil is 3-9 on soft or heavy ground and when ridden by Paul O Brien that record improves to 322111. He has to be thereabouts.

The Two Amigos fell in this last year off 142 and has an excellent fifth in the Welsh National to his name. he is 3-4 when he goes off favourite as opposed to 0-11, one place, when he isn't.

Steely Addition beat Yaltairi, gave him 7lbs, in a novice chase earlier in the season and with that horse subsequently finishing third in the Grade 2 Reynoldstown off 17lbs higher, the form is right up there.. He hasn't been seen since finishing ten miles behind Santini but he is too big to ignore here.
 

mlmrob

Sire
ROXYFET 4.33 SEDGEFIELD

Roxyfet’s record in this race reads 1321 and his record at Sedgefield reads 7-25. However, under certain conditions Roxyfet improves his record. The distance must be between 16f-17f, his official rating has to be 100 or less and the races must be between November and March. That improves his record to 7-19. It can be improved again when he carries 11-5 or less to 7-13 and when he is ridden by a claiming jockey the figures return 1121121P141P. Pretty impressive for one of his ability and the two times he has won this race have been under those conditions. All his wins have come when the average OR for the race has been under 90. You have to forgive him his poor run here last time but the average of that race was over 90 but on the positive side under the above conditions when his last race was at Sedgefield his record reads 6-8. He will be cherry ripe today.
 

markfinn

Sire
ROXYFET 4.33 SEDGEFIELD

Roxyfet’s record in this race reads 1321 and his record at Sedgefield reads 7-25. However, under certain conditions Roxyfet improves his record. The distance must be between 16f-17f, his official rating has to be 100 or less and the races must be between November and March. That improves his record to 7-19. It can be improved again when he carries 11-5 or less to 7-13 and when he is ridden by a claiming jockey the figures return 1121121P141P. Pretty impressive for one of his ability and the two times he has won this race have been under those conditions. All his wins have come when the average OR for the race has been under 90. You have to forgive him his poor run here last time but the average of that race was over 90 but on the positive side under the above conditions when his last race was at Sedgefield his record reads 6-8. He will be cherry ripe today.
Informative post as per - there is one little nugget in there - that is something I never consider, but thinking about now I can see the value Thanks 👍
 

mick

Sire
ROXYFET....Just watching his last run where he was tailed off and pulled up would put me off unless there was a sound enough excuse but best of.
Swerving horses who PU Lto will enable avoiding some losers, but when i was working the NH i learnt that doing so actually cost me money on balance.
 

mlmrob

Sire
there was a sound enough excuse but best of.

He was found to have an irregular heartbeat which is unsurprising as the horses couldn't get their feet out of the ground that day. The ground was like glue.

According to Micky Hammond he said that he run him at Sedgefield earlier in the month as it was Roxyfet's 99th racecourse appearance. This is Roxyfet's race and I'm pretty sure the racecourse will name this race after him but today is Roxyfet's 100th racecourse appearance in a race he has won twice. No maths needed.
 
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