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Daily Racing Insight

Best of luck @mick

I did note one of his best runs was when beaten by Sod's Law !

Tonights race is one were I can't find a winner, possibly with the exception of Fields Of Dreams.

My first reaction re MTH was similar to yours about his turf mark for a return to soft ground. Whatever happened to the days when horses had differing OR's by race code ?

Is the trainer actually cute enough to get it's mark down below 75 for the turf season.

You also mentioned MTH running over 6f being a piss take, but how the hell was it only 8/1 ????

I was about to congratulate you on your sound reasoning, even though it's an Evans runner, but have just seen you have gone for a Dixon runner tomorrow !!!

Get back into the asylum :D:D:D:D
 

mick

Sire
I was about to congratulate you on your sound reasoning, even though it's an Evans runner, but have just seen you have gone for a Dixon runner tomorrow !!!

Get back into the asylum :D:D:D:D
I know Doom it must be me masochistic month, because my only possible for Mon is a Brittain runner who is 2-39. :eek: If the Asylum takes optimistic masochists then book me in.
 
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Wolver 5.00 Grassmere

It was either Grassmer or Decoration Of War for me in this Amateur Riders event, but even with several issues attached, the former is around 30+ against 3.8 for the latter.

Grassmere appears likely to finish down the field here, being a 44 rated dog, ungenuine, 2lb out of the h/cap and off a lay off.

My rays of hope is current trainer form appears to be a positive. Even for a trainer with little ammunition, last years tally of 6 winners was pretty desperate, but he has picked up 3 races with 2 horses since 20th December.

The horse put in some reasonable C7 grade runs during the bad period, were there were some unfortunate runs even though lack of pace was an obvious factor. Track conditions should suit with only win coming at Chelmsford over 10f.

The final kicker is purely on account of HRB; the trainer has a decent record with these Amateur races and also with jocks that have never previously ridden a winner.

C/P's are back on and the only time he previously tried them he was down the field, but it was fair race for grade and it was one of the mentioned "interference" races.

Looks a grotty race, so taking a chance with the outsider.

Unless Miss Jack is a member of the family
 
Just seen there's a horse named Mickey in tonight's race - omen!!
Oops, wrong kind of omen!! Sorry @mick

Here's a tip for you all for the future. Watch the 7.30 Wolv. if you can again. I backed Street Parade, a 4yo, who was slow getting away at the start but ran a very good race, switching left and then right and came through strongly at the finish to finish 2nd. Had WS before its last race in January and I think it will take all the beating if in the same company or lower next race (this was a Class 2 race). One for the notebook.
 

mick

Sire
My 4/1 Samovar had reduced to 15/8 with some but Southwell now Abandoned which is a sod but also the right thing to do. Anyway i can offer a replacement to ponder for Monday. In recent times Wolv has not proved a kind track to myself but i cannot glean why so live in hope, its part of what we do. :)

Mon 10th Wolv 8.10 : Qaaraat @ 7/1

A 5 fur 0-60 11 run with two OH. This 5yo shows top off my ratings @ +1 but has a dismal all in S/r of 2-39 inc 0-8 over this CD, Seeking any positives Re the latter i note that 7 of those runs were off a higher OR than the 56 he has here and the 8th which came Lto was in a slightly higher grade. My rating race is his CD run Mar 5th last year and on five returns since i have not felt that the races he contested were good choices, and certainly of no betting interest for myself but despite this he has managed two 2nds.

Imo he has been placed to win this 0-60 and in some respects it's unfortunate that he has gained 2nd in each of his last two runs because this will attract market attention. However with two lto winners in the race and Fareeq plus Jorvick Prince heading the weights i am hopeful that the stable and I will find the price acceptable. Qaar has certainly been kept busy but appears a tough nut and is proven off this quick 5 day turnout. The stable have secured a positive start to the year and Wolv is there most winsome track.

His win last Nov came with CPs but recently he has been running without and this does not appear as a negative to chance. Originally a 200k buy he is a good example of how easy it is to do your money in this game.! He appears to favour hold up tactics and his 5-11 draw should not hinder this. The rider Cam Hardie was not a fav of mine during his apprentice days but fair dues he has built a positive relationship with this stable and was on top for the animals most recent win which came in a 0-70.

Although i do not use SF as part of my process every little helps so i was pleased to note that he shows top off the RI ones which in this race type are often tightly grouped at the top but in this instance he is 3pts clear. I know i am chancing my arm by even considering this one who has an uninspiring profile, but with nothing else of interest in the race if he shows at a value price then I think he will represent a worthwhile play to break his course duck and gain a third win.

WH play extra early @ 7/1 and this appears fair.
 
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As there is no racing today, i was thinking that tomorrows prices might go up earlier then usual. Alas i see i see nothing on the R/Post site yet Oddschecker do have prices.


Arkle.
 
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