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Daily Racing Insight

mlmrob

Sire
Regardless of the result the amount of information involved is immence and must be time consuming, with that in mind can i ask how much time do you spend on a race even before you post the results ?

It is pretty simple really, I have certain races I prefer T tacker I don't look for the winner in the race I look for reasons why a horse won't win. What I'm left with is horses that should run well. That's doesn't take long. It takes about an hour or two to sort the due dilligence and even after that the horse may not qualify as a bet.

Some people spend hours making a galleon out of matchsticks, I spend hours being wrong most of the time.

"times or speed figures"?
Very little. For me the official rating is king. The bloke that trains the horse is obsessed with it so that is good enough for me.
 

mick

Sire
My MO is to work well in advance starting off the 4 day decs and my preference is to find a race which contains only one horse of interest via my ratings. With ample time to spare i then tend to over kill the due diligence aspect spending lots of time looking at and thinking about each of its past races. In some respects this can prove a frustrating way of working but over the past few years its an MO which on balance suits and this is the best that any of us can ask for.?
 

retriever

Gelding
It is pretty simple really, I have certain races I prefer @tacker I don't look for the winner in the race I look for reasons why a horse won't win.
I am just beginning to learn how to do that using HRB but to be able to 'write stuff' and put down on paper why a horse is likely to win or go close is beyond me. I guess that will take time and a more all-round knowledge of the game. Hats off to you mlmrob mlmrob
My MO is to work well in advance starting off the 4 day decs
That would be ideal (even working to 48hr decs) but unfortunately, I only have the Exchanges to work with for prices and BFSP, so it's pretty pointless and no advantage in doing things early. Any ideas here?
Oh for the days of BOG and a selection of bookie accounts to cherry-pick from !! :(
 

markfinn

Sire
The problem with mlmrob mlmrob race post's is that there is little of any worth than can be added to them - always an education and the info is brought from all sorts of different angles - what is nice is to see is why the of the ratings value was arrived at - how they came about and this can be read through and seen to be built on a decent foundation regardless of result.

Now if some can give me concrete steer on how to equate Hurdles to Chase form I would be happy.
 

mlmrob

Sire
Now if some can give me concrete steer on how to equate Hurdles to Chase form I would be happy.

Take a look at the form of Coopers Square who runs in the first at Domcaster today. It was about a year ago connections changed tactics and let the horse have his head. He won two chases off a mark of 74 and then unseated off a mark of 84. Six days later he turns up in handicap hurdle off 79.

When the horse started his handicap career hurdling after three runs down the field in maidens he was given a rating of 90. He was still being held up at the time. Now with this new tactic and after winning chases the mark of 79 was a gift.

Just added this. Since he was upped to distances around three miles and the ground was good or good to soft his record reads 5-8. He is 5-7 in 0-105 or less.
 
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mickeddy

Colt
3-05 Huntingdon, an interesting race mainly because of the return to action of Settie Hills and Messire Des Obeaux, both class horses with MDO already proven at Grade 1 level and sets the standard here. He has been off the track for 1064 days for whatever reason and would win this quite easily if primed. There is a lot in his favour, ground, trip and track. ran well in 2016/17 season when he was last seen., winning a class 2 H'c hurdle at Bangor, the grade 2 Neptune nov hurdle at Sandown and the Grade 1 Challow nov hurdle at Newbury before finishing 4th in the Grade 1 Neptune nov hurdle at Cheltenham and 3rd to Finians Oscar in the Grade 1 Mersey nov hurdle at Aintree. Remains the one to beat here although the stable jockey, Nico De Boinville prefers Colonial Dream from the same stable. You would think chasing would be where his future lies.
Settie Hills, returns from a 601 day break. He has won first time out over 2 seasons so could be ready for this. He won twice in the 2018/9 season over 2m 4 1/2f Southwell and 2m 5 1/2f at Newton Abbot. UR on his penultimate run at Market Rasen going well before unseating 2 out when he pecked on landing. Last time he was seen he won a novice hurdle at Newton Abbot leading two out and always in command after. Never came off the bridle and easily outclassed these here. Talented type who should improve again given time.
Tea Clipper is unbeaten so far but will have to improve again here on what he has achieved in this race which he faces his toughest test yet. Has won 3m PTP and novice hurdles at Warwick, Kempton and Huntingdon all over 2m improving his RPR with each run. On his penultimate run he won a 2m nov hurdle at Kempton beating Chasamax 3 3/4L leading 3 out and always in command after staying on well.
Last time out he won 1m 7 1/2f H'c hurdle Huntingdon, leading approaching the last before making a mistake and being headed on the flat before rallying well to lead on line. Has never met this level of opposition though so this is his big test. He is another who wil make a chaser in time.
Colonial Dreams, from the same stable as MDO is De Boinvilles choice here and has already had his pipe opener for the season when when beaten
20 1/4L after a 245 day break weakening between the last 2. The jockey said he ran too freely here. His penultimate run was a winning one over 2m 3 1/2f at Sandown where he beat Wait For Me 1/2L after a protracted battle in the final 100 yards. That was in April 2019. It's worth noting all his wins have come in March and April.
A hard race to get a grip of with many ifs and buts about all of these. The class act has to be MDO and if he is fit he would win this. Tea Clipper has to shine now if he is to progress further with his unbeaten record but has race fitness on his side and could just do it.
 

mick

Sire
@mlmrob[/USER]

Regardless of the result the amount of information involved is immence and must be time consuming, with that in mind can i ask how much time do you spend on a race even before you post the results ?
Perhaps another relevant question might be " How much additional time do you then spend typing up your notes to share on this forum" ? My own findings are that presenting a detailed case which can be fully understood and makes for an interesting and informative read is seldom an easy ask. Those who attempt simular will fully appreciate the reciprocation by others regardless of the outcomes. :)
 
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mick

Sire
Quiet on here today so i thought i would put one of interest up for tomorrow. :)

Sat 8th Wolv 8.0 : Mr Top Hat @ 16/1

A 0-85 over 9.5 fur with 10 run. There are several reasons not to back this 5yo his all in S/r of 2-37 for starters and given this evenings ask perhaps a worst still 0-9 on the AW. But three of the latter were over this CD with two of those showing positive off my numbers, the best came Dec 2018 when bt a len in a 0-105 but while good to note i feel that working off this might be pushing my luck. His 4lto run in a 0-95 over CD better suits because despite being beaten 4 lens it can still be used as a relevant rating race and my numbers suggest a repeat of this could make him the winner here.

It is interesting to note what then happened because 3lto he was dropped in trip, 2lto the same plus raised in grade and 3lto (last Sat) really took the piddle as he was run over 6fur when his most recent win came at 10fur. These three Gaming runs have almost forced the BHA to drop his OR by a further 5lbs which in theory creates a positive chance at the weights in this race. He runs here off OR 80 his lowest ever mark in a hcap and my hope is that his trainer Mr Bloody Evans will be thinking likewise and contesting with serious intention.

The draw stats suggest he has lucked out being asked to exit from the 1 box but i note a recent winner 1-11 and also that Top has run well when receiving a prominent ride so this may not prevent. His 7 day turnout and late evening ask are not supported by the profile but likewise it shows no conclusive evidence against. I am not going to comment much on the trainer who imo is a Monkey but fair dues over the years he has done me a few good turns at larger prices. He sent out six winners last month and over the past 12 yrs Wolv has proved by far his most winsome track.

The rider engaged triggers additional problems because this 18yo has yet to win a race, and is currently 0-16. Eight of those rides did come at this course and four of them on this horse both of which should prove helpful. With a young 7lb claimer we expect his first win to come in an apprentice race or a class 6 but it still hurts to recall that this time last year i swerved what would have been an EP 33/1 winner for myself (Mr Scaramanga) because of the same circumstances and that was in a 7k 0-95 so it can be done.

Investigating all of those losing runs which included ten 2nds you could be kind by concluding he is not unreliable as such but rather a victim of his own consistency and being harshly treated by the Official Handicappers as a consequence. His problems in this respect commenced after winning a class 2 race in his first season and when starting to contest hcaps as a 3yo he was on several occasions penalized for losing which included a SH 2nd off OR 90 in a 0-95 at Newm. A 16k buy part-owned by his wife the trainer had him from the get-go and with 66k earned in total prize money he has paid his way.

Just to put the boot in the stable also run Scofflaw who with Jason Hart on top will be the market preference. This situation causes concern at any time and factoring in the Evans aspect even more so, but my conclusion is that if Tops was not running i would not be backing Scoff. While i accept that my pick might be on yet another gaming run with perhaps an early turf season soft ground race a plan the fact remains that there is a case of sorts to be made for him winning this 0-85 race, and at the current price which is better than expected I now feel able to play and pay to find out.

I had to grin when reading the Timeform conclusion " Needs a couple of these to falter " I would ask Halifax does this mean he will be 3rd even if they don't but concluded perhaps best not to know.
 
I think P Hobbs will train the winner of the Betfair Hurdle, 3.35, Newbury, Saturday. Trouble is I'm not sure which one of his has the best chance.

The yard is in good form with a 26% strike rate (42% for placed horses) in the past fortnight. He sends Gumball, Oakley and Zanza to Newbury, and I think that Gumball is best value at 33/1. Since 1997 no horse carrying his weight has won this - he has 11.12 minus the 3lbs claim of Ben Jones. But he has an awful lot going for him, not least the ability to act on good ground on which he has won 3 from 5 (unplaced in just 1 of the 5). Many come here having raced predominantly on soft ground this season.

I think we ought to drop Oakley at this point. I'm not a great fan of stats, but there is a hellish strong one to overcome in this race: the past 13 runnings of this race have been dominated by 5&6 -year-olds. Oakley is 7.

So we are down to Gumball and Zanza.

Gumball's jockey, the claimer Ben Jones who has a 14-day strike rate of 30% wins and 50% places (those wins are included in the place figures). Only Cobden - 33/45 - and Dingle - 33/42 can beat his percentages in this race.

As far as track experience goes over hurdles, surprisingly only 6 in this field have raced at Newbury. Hobbs's Zanza is 2 from 2 at the track, both wins resulting in stewards' enquiries where the stable rep had no explanation for the improvement)

Back to Gumball who has made steady progress this season, improving a stone on official ratings. He's honest, genuine and game and if the 11.9 burden proves beyond him I'm confident he'll go down fighting.

Zanza is also fine value at 66/1. Aside from his liking for the track as mentioned, the trip too is ideal. He is 3 from 4 at this exact distance compared to 1 from 6 at other trips. He has never run on good ground, but is 3 from 5 on good to soft. On the downside, he is inconsistent and, arguably, moody. But his liking for Newbury might once again galvanise him and 66/1 is far too big.
 

mick

Sire
Sun 9th South 3.40 : Samovar @ 4/1

A 5 fur 0-85 with 6 run. This race has cut up messy with three running seriously wrong at the weights. Of the remainder i cannot feel enthusiasm for Moonraker or the 9yo Lto winner Green Door, and this leaves the door open for Sam to gain his 5th CD win. He is running off OR 78 @ 3lbs above his last winning mark but a repeat of his 4lto Jan 1st run off OR 79 suggests that this is possible. In that 0-90 beaten a nk he finished 2 lens in front of Moonraker and yet still runs here on 1lb better terms.

During his next three runs he was not placed to win imo with the 3lto and 2lto coming after 2 and 4 day breaks which equalled a crazy 3 runs in 9 days and Lto he was raised to a 0-95 grade. He runs here after a 17 day "break" which should better suit his mindset and goodness knows every little helps because he can be a rascal and sometimes slow away. I note a close 2nd here in a previous Feb and a past win in one of these 0-85 grades.

Saving the worst till last whenever i find a possible bet is trained by Dear Dixon then negative thoughts kick in. I attempt to balance this by recalling that he has done me a few decent turns in recent times indeed my best earn last year came when his Break The Silence won 14/1 and i had part of my wedge on @ 25/1 but it is still difficult to read his intentions. What i can give him here is that he has trained Sam to win six races and this helps.

I feel no problems Re the rider who imo is a capable journeyman type who makes the most of what he is offered. His seven ytd wins will be helping the confidence and Southwell is by far his most winsome course. He has also ridden a couple of winners for this stable. At the 4 day dec stage he was shown as riding Jan Van Hoof who is now a n/r and Dixon had a 5lb claimer on Sam. I am unsure if the final switch can be seen as a positive but live in hope that this is also Dixons thinking.

I only work off my own ratings which show Sam @ +1 but at time of writing the RI form ratings also have him top rated. He exits (smartly i hope) from the 1 box which has produced 2 of the last 6 CD wins. With the Appleby - Curtis combo plus two Lto winners involved i am hoping this may create an acceptable value price against Sam and if you get to read this then I am thinking so.........WH play extra early @ 4/1 and snagging some of that will do nicely.
 
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