• Hi Guest, The forum will be moving hosts on 26 July and as such will be closed from Midday until the move has completed.
    As we will be with new hosts it may take a while before DNS get updated so it could take while before you can get back on the forum.
    I think it will take at least 4 hours but could easily be 48!
    Ark Royal
  • There seems to be a problem with some alerts not being emailed to members. I have told the hosts and they are investigating.
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    It really is frustrating when the forum slows down or Server Error 500 pops up.

    Apparently the hosts acknowledge there is a problem.
    Thank you for using our services and sorry for the experienced delay!
    Unfortunately, these errors are due to a higher server load. Our senior department knows about the issue and they are working towards a permanent resolution of the issue, however, I'd advise you to consider using our new cPanel cloud solutions: https://www.tsohost.com/web-hosting


    I will have to investigate what the differences are with what We have know compared to the alternative service they want us to migrate to.
    Keep safe.
    AR

Daily Racing Insight

One of those unlucky days mlmrob mlmrob where your horse is having a real bad day at the office. Niggled from the 3rd, he was never up for it. If only we knew a bit more about poor performances as well as good ones. I noticed yesterday that Danny Mullins, discussing the victory of Total Recall said he had taken the horse down late because Patrick Mullins, who had ridden him last season at Fairyhouse had told him the horse had got himself so wound up at the start he had run his race before the tapes went up. He'd had 3 runs in the interim, I'm not sure why PM didn't tell him until Thyestes time!
 

mlmrob

Sire
The performance of HAWK HIGH (IRE), which started second favourite and finished unplaced, was considered. Tim Easterby’s representative could offer no explanation for the gelding’s performance. The Veterinary Officer reported that a post-race examination of HAWK HIGH (IRE) during routine testing failed to reveal any abnormalities.

Personally I don't think the horse faced the first time blinkers.
 
Saturday 25 January 2020 - Cheltenham

The Cotswold Chase (2.25 Cheltenham) is something of a graveyard for Gold Cup contenders. In the past 40 years, just 3 winners from January have gone on to win in March. None has won a Gold Cup in the past 20 years. It can be a brutal race in really deep ground. With luck it will only be soft tomorrow and the horses will come out of it okay, although I still wouldn't betting the winner for the Gold Cup.

I was surprised to see Santini favourite. I think it's as much to do with his optimistic trainer as anything in his form. If there was a way of checking which yard's runners are consistently overbet I'd say Henderson would be very near the top of the list. Santini is promising, no doubt, but Bristol De Mai has been there and done it. The horse who was not supposed to act on good won a Betfair on good, thrashing a Gold Cup winner in Native River and a dual King George winner in Clan Des Obeaux. The horse who was not supposed to act at Cheltenham was 3rd beaten just over 6 lengths in last year's Gold Cup . He needs a long break between races and, encouragingly, hasn't run since the Betfair when 2nd to Lostintranslation.

Santini's best Racing Post Rating is 166. Bristol De Mai's topped that 166 six times. His best rating is 182 at his beloved Haydock. At Cheltenham in March he earned a 172. Had he been with another trainer, I think he might well have won a Gold Cup by now. Nigel Twiston-Davies is a master at getting one fit, but he's a hell of a man for over-racing them, something he's done with Bristol De Mai despite promises not to.

Perhaps punters are taking a view that Santini is the youngster here. He is 8. Bristol De Mai is 9.

I'm convinced the market has the wrong favourite and that Bristol De Mai should be backed at the 5/2 on offer.

In the 1.50 at Cheltenham Lalor will be bidding to follow up his fine run at the track last time when beaten a short head (yet finishing 3rd) in a good handicap. That was his first time at today's trip: 20f and his first time in cheekpieces. Hopes will be high in his growing camp of followers that he can win his first race for more than a year. But he has 11.11 to carry in soft ground and although it was soft last time, he has proved himself a better horse on good ground. I don't believe he can give 17lbs to the in form Warthog.

Warthog won at Cheltenham last time coming back after going more than a length down on the run in to Spiritofthegames who re-opposes here. David Noonan got Warthog into a superb rhythm last time and his jumping overall was excellent, safe and economical. Noonan gets on particularly well with the horse Tom Scudamore has ridden Warthog regularly but Noonan was on his back when he clocked up his 4 highest Racing Post Ratings.

I fear the Nicholls horse My Way who looked to run an improved and honest race for the fitting of cheekpieces last time. The hill will help him too. He's on a slow but steadily progressive curve and I recommend a small bet on him too to save stakes.

The final bet for me needs a fair leap of faith. Summerville Boy is a horse I've liked since I saw him beat Kalashnikov at Sandown two years ago. He went on to win The Supreme at the Cheltenham Festival and was being talked of as a potential Champion Hurdle horse. But he disappointed in all four hurdle races last season and he opened up this season over fences. His chasing debut saw him beat First Flow but next time out he fell at the water jump (Grade 1 at Sandown).

Connections turned him back to hurdles, aiming him at the Relkeel at Cheltenham, a 20f race, his 2nd attempt at the trip, his first a deplorable run behind Supasundae at Aintree. Apart from stepping him back up (he has always looked a stayer to me) connections made a tactical change: for the first time in his career he made all. Summerville Boy seemed to relish being alone in front and jockey JJ Burke gave him a fine ride.

If he is to improve again tomorrow I am assuming they will try once more to make all, a much different prospect over this 3 miles. And he'll also need to improve for the extra distance. A tall order but I am willing to take a chance EW that he is capable of at least returning a small profit.

Summary
2.25 Cheltenham: Bristol De Mai win only 5/2: 3 points
1.50 Cheltenham: Warthog win only 11/2. 1 point and saver on My Way 8/1 1 point
3.35 Cheltenham: Summerville Boy 8/1 EW 1point
Warthog 11/2
Summerville Boy 8/1
EW double 1 point


Good luck
Joe
 
Last edited:

mick

Sire
Good post Steeplechasing Steeplechasing and a positive you will come to find about this forum is that even the members who have not followed you in will be genuinely pleased when your horse (s) oblige. Regretfully i have come to view the large firm Bookmakers as a real enemy and i bloody love it when i see anyone hurt them via there pockets. Best of that same applies via your above's today. :)
 

tacker

Gelding
Steeplechasing Steeplechasing
I have never quite worked out whether or not this DAILY RACING INSIGHT is different from UKBF COMMON RACE in that here we aren't invited to opine here but i will take the risks and have a go, you have already made a very good case for BDM and maybe we have what we see every year in that a new generation of novice chasers take on the established. There is a small bit of collateral form here with LOSTINTRANSLATION easily beating the winner of the rsa TOPOFTHEGAME at aintree last april so if we were to accept this somewhat tenuous link then it would further confirm that the betting at least is the wrong way round and seems to confirm the official ratings of SANTINI 163 BDM 170.
You wouldn't want to rule out either SLATE HOUSE 156 or TOP VILLE BEN 164 but again they both have something to find.
Finally i have just bothered to read hendersons blog and he will be happy with a good run from SANTINI so nothing too positive there either.
good luck.
 

mlmrob

Sire
SKYBET CHASE 3.15 DONCASTER

Up until 2014 you could hang your hat on the stat that any horse that had run in more than 12 handicap chases wouldn't win. They had returned 0-33 with just five places. However since 2014 this has been run six times and horses with more than 12 handicap chase starts have won three. The three winners had run in 16 and 17 handicap chases between them so they were not totally exposed.

This year those with 13-20 handicap chase starts are Cobra De Mai, Chidswell, Calipto and Monbeg River.

Cobra De Mai can be eliminated as he has an awful record in double figure fields, 0-14 with just two places and the two places were in 10 runner events.

Chidswell can be eliminated as he is 0-16 off marks 128+ though he has placed six times.

Calipto was third in this last year off 143 and is 3lbs higher but there is a lot to like about him. He didn't settle last year and raced with the choke out so he did really well and he was a good thing when he won at Ascot next time. He can be forgiven his poor show in the Ultima as it was on soft ground and his last of six in the Welsh National trial also came on soft ground. Back on good to soft today, 4-9, he would have a chance but his weight carrying record isnt the best, 0-7 when set to haul 11-5+.

That leaves Monbeg River who was second in this last year off 133 and is 5lbs lower this year. He has been trained with this race in mind. He likes a break between his races and his record when returning after a month or more off in handicap chases off 132 or less reads 3-9. That improves to 3-5 on good or good to soft and he placed in the other two races. He has not had these conditions since December 2017. He looks a decent each way bet.
 

mick

Sire
T tacker your comment about the two different threads is well made but i suspect that both originators would confirm that all opinions and contributions are welcome. The way i am seeing both is that on the common race thread someone nominates a sole race for discussion, whereas on this one any and all races are welcome.

What pleases myself is that currently both threads are active and interesting. I am not sure if they could be merged and perhaps this is something for the originators to ponder should they feel the need. Both are IS Blog members and therefore arguably did not have the need in the first place which imo is all the more reason for all members to offer active support. :)
 

tacker

Gelding
3.15 donny
We were chatting about this race yesterday in the pub (still calling it the great yorkshire chase) and i was interested to see alan king has 3 in the race including the fav DINGO DOLLAR who finished 6th last year 2lb higher than today but in any case my preference is for king's AZZERTI who might be a better horse this year based on him winning 1st time out at newbury gd to soft and dropped a couple of pounds since having run 5th lto at ascot (heavy) which i thought was a good run over the 3ml and also might prefer going left handed. His 6th place run at newb (soft) was no more than ok but today he is a 16/1 chance so a bit ew for me in a tough race.
 
Aye @tacker,thanks for the reminder

In the 1.50 at Cheltenham Lalor will be bidding to follow up his fine run at the track last time when beaten a short head (yet finishing 3rd) in a good handicap. That was his first time at today's trip: 20f and his first time in cheekpieces. Hopes will be high in his growing camp of followers that he can win his first race for more than a year. But he has 11.11 to carry in soft ground and although it was soft last time, he has proved himself a better horse on good ground. I don't believe he can give 17lbs to the in form Warthog.

Warthog won at Cheltenham last time coming back after going more than a length down on the run in to Spiritofthegames who re-opposes here. David Noonan got Warthog into a superb rhythm last time and his jumping overall was excellent, safe and economical. Noonan gets on particularly well with the horse Tom Scudamore has ridden Warthog regularly but Noonan was on his back when he clocked up his 4 highest Racing Post Ratings.

I fear the Nicholls horse My Way who looked to run an improved and honest race for the fitting of cheekpieces last time. The hill will help him too. He's on a slow but steadily progressive curve and I recommend a small bet on him too to save stakes.
 

mickeddy

Colt
2-25 Cheltenham
Santini*, a top class hurdler 2017/18 season, looked to have the world at his feet. He only ran 3 times 2018/19 season beating Rocky's Treasure at Newbury and finishing 3rd in the Kauto Star nov chase at Kempton to Le Bague Au Roi in Grade 1 over 3m. not running to his best, he was much better when beaten 0.5L by Topofthegame in the 3m RSA chase here in March. Gives the impression 3m may stretch him. 1/3 fav won 3m listed 4 runner race by head from Now McGinty. Will need to have shown improvement here. No favourite has won this in the past ten years.
Bristol De Mai, has still to win here and it may be that this course just finds him out. 3rd in last years Gold cup here and is the one to beat here on the strength of that. Beaten by Lostintranslation in this years Betfair chase on seasonal bow. This was a decent effort for him on return.
Slate House, rapidly improving chaser who has won 3 times here. Last time out won the 3m Kauto Star novice chase this year beating Black Op 1.25L travelling strongly always going well and never looked in danger. Has RSA as his main target.
Topville Ben, another improving chaser whe was vw=ery impressive when winning the Rowland Meyrick chase at Wetherby in January leading at the 10th and storming clear after. This was a class display here easily outclassing the rest of the field.
I like Slate House and Topvolle Ben here. good luck guys.
 

mickeddy

Colt
Well class always wins as someone use to say and that happened today. The first winning favourite for 20 years. Slate House just wasn't at the races today and ran as if something was amiss. Topville Ben did too much too soon and paid the price later in the race but the front two pulled well clear of the rest showing their class.
 
Nass 1.40 Off You Go

Even for a G3 18k pot, I do think this race is potentially rancid, with the exception of the 1/2 fav Stormy Island, who seems certain to be going for mares hurdle at the festival, so this looks like a genuine prep run.

I'm not sure if i viewed this race as a backer or a trader , but having considered the chances of OYG at around 5/1, the he is trading at 11.5 on the exchange, I can play the horse both ways.

I'd expect the fav Stormy Island to attempt to make all dropping back in trip, with OYG sat in travelling and hopefully hitting the 5/2 mark in running to at least return my stake money.

OYG having won 2 Ladbroke Hurdles, his last one off the highest OR for the race, clearly has an engine and returns to hurdling after some strange chase entries.

Even with the fav having to set the pace, it still may not be strong enough OYG here, hence the chicken trade.

My reasoning for taking the fav on is her mares allowance is wiped out with her penalty she has to carry.

I'm clueless why she was only raised 1lb for winning a G3 mares hurdle lto, although she was best in on OR rating, but she is officially 3rd best in today.

Her only win over 2 miles she was 2/5 fav on heavy ground on stable debut for Mullins in a maiden hurdle. She ran in the top class festival races on her next two runs falling both times in the home straight, but whilst she is a decent mare, she looks best over further.

It's worth considering the horse was running over 10f as a 2yo.

The conundrum really is trying to figure what are the future running plans of the rest of the field and were they can bee placed for the Festival races.

Sutton Place has won this race 3 years ago, but having been off around 2 years, I'd think there would be other races in mind.

OYG's trainer is not in best of form at present, but has enough placed efforts not to be written off.

Even though he's extremely weak in the betting, looks worth a shot backing to a hurdling campaign.
 
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