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Daily Racing Insight

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Nicky Martin, trainer of Colonel Custard
He ran over two miles five furlongs on Boxing Day, which may have been a bit far for him, and we think this trip should be more on his radar. Hopefully it doesn't rain too much and make it into a slog as that wouldn't suit. He's crying out to jump a fence but we'll now wait until next season for that.
 

mlmrob

Sire
BRIAN BORANHA 2.40 CATTERICK

This race was upgraded to 0-140 in 2017 and in the last three running’s every winner has been rated 130+. Nine have tried.
It is a poor renewal this year with no horse rated higher than 133 and five of the eight runners are rated 130+. There is a vital trend though.

HORSES THAT FINISHED FIRST OR SECOND IN ANY OF THEIR LAST THREE RACES ARE 0-18.

So, if we take that trend and horses rated 130+ we end up with four qualifiers. Brian Boranha, Sumkindofking, Milansbar and Kingswell Theatre.

Kingswell Theatre has been running in Cross Country events and this will be a prep towards the Cheltenham Festival. On his chasing form he would have a chance but he likes to make the running and with Little Bruce in the race that isn’t a good thing.

Sumkindofking always runs his race but he needs a sounder surface and is yet to place in three races on soft ground.

Milansbar is another that likes to lead and is 0-9 beyond 21f.

That leaves Brian Boranha who is back on a winning mark. His record off marks of 130 or less in races over 23.5f+ reads 4-11 and that improves in handicap chases to 21131. He was rated 139 a year ago and looked like he was going to sluice up in the Durham National off 133 but fell in a heap after the last. The last time Brian Boranha had his ideal conditions was when he won the Durham National in 2018 off 130.

Little Bruce joins plethora of front runners, I’ve counted five who can make the running, and for a little horse he does carry weight well. he was second in this off 122 last year and is 10lbs higher this time around and carries 16lbs more physical weight. He won’t get a solo on the front end and his main target is the Edinburgh National on February 2nd.

Pickamix needs flattish tracks to show his best as he is 0-6 on undulating tracks. He is very close to being well handicapped again as he is 0-11 off marks above 127.

Chase The Wind is 0-7 on undulating tracks and is yet to place in five races when the top weight is rated 130+.


Manwell is 0-6 beyond 20f and even though he is well handicapped he is yet to place in seven races when the top rated horse is rated 126+.


Conclusion: This will be run at some pace and it looks set up for a closer. Brian Boranha will mind his own business for a couple of circuits and then start to pick them off as the front runner’s tire. Peter Niven won this eight years ago with Posh Bird and he has an exceptional record in staying chases in the North. It looks like he has prepared another winner in Brian Boranha.
 

mickeddy

Colt
With you all the way on this mimrob BB's record on soft is 234P so he still has to prove he handles it well enough. Last time he was pulled up in the Scottish Borders National over 4 1/2 miles. Brian Hughes rides for the first time since 2017 when he won on him. Good luck.
 
Hello mlmrob mlmrob , i was interested in your comments in one of your posts regarding Qualifying races. it is shamefully ! something that i have never taken into account. This Saturday we have a

PERTEMPS NETWORK HANDICAP HURDLE (SERIES QUALIFIER) @ Warwick.
So can you steer me into understanding what the motives and thinking might be behind a trainers reason for entering their horse . now i understand that you have to finish in the Top 6 of a qualifying race and i have looked at the BHA site but it very vague around this race. i have looked on HRB and the last 11 winners of the Final have won between OR 129 and 148.
i see All in a guesswork has already qualified , so for example would it be in his interest to win the race or not ?
Silver Sheen caught my eye , not qualified yet , good jockey , how much would the BHA put his rating up if he wins ?
Anything of help would be of great interest !! thanks !!
 

tacker

Gelding
SAMMY BILL 1.30 kem 2/1

This horse has won both chases now and is up another 11lb so obviously it becomes a question of has the handicapper got hold of him now ?
I doubt it given the way he travels through his races and from what i saw he won with something in hand at aintree, either way the form book is pointing to him going very close over a track he's won on before. As for the opposition i can't find what can beat him but others might differ but at 2/1 he must surely go very close and the old saying "what beats him wins".
 

markfinn

Sire
SAMMY BILL 1.30 kem 2/1

This horse has won both chases now and is up another 11lb so obviously it becomes a question of has the handicapper got hold of him now ?
I doubt it given the way he travels through his races and from what i saw he won with something in hand at aintree, either way the form book is pointing to him going very close over a track he's won on before. As for the opposition i can't find what can beat him but others might differ but at 2/1 he must surely go very close and the old saying "what beats him wins".
Only a quick look as not racing today - Kempton straight forward course with no real angles - so its a numbers only game - assume they all get the going as per it would be top two - not a great Skelton fan but that's how the numbers have come out.

1578740675999.png
 

mickeddy

Colt
2-40 Kempton
Notra Pari, has improved with each race this season. Has been raised 8lb by the handicapper for his last run where he won 2m 4f h'c hole, by 2.5L from One Night In Milan leading after the last and pulling away on his h'cap debut. Did this very easy, horse on the upgrade and could be more to come yet. Will need to improve again here.
Larkbarrow Lad, yet to win going RH his form being 32222 when going that way. He has also been raised 8lb by the h'capper for his last run. Signed off last season winning a maiden at Southwell from Imperial Knight.
Beaten 6L 2nd on seasonal debut at Worcester getting outpaced by the winner on the flat. This was decent form, improved again with career best run last time when beating The Vollan 1L giving him 5lb, on his h'cap debut. Looks very much a chaser in the making.
Tight Call, all his wins have come on sharp flat tracks so this course should be ideal. Has been dropped 3lb by the h'capper and is now 1lb below his last winning mark. Won at Stratford, maiden hurdle at Hereford and Fontwell where he made all jumping well and winning easily last season. He is well regarded at home by connections.
After 179 day break finished 18L over 2.5m had every chance until hitting 2 out last time at Market Rasen. Strong form for the grade and should come on for this. Has had wind op since then and a big run is expected today.
Conclusion, NP and TC are both improving types here and it may rest between these two. Good luck.
 

markfinn

Sire
Only another quick look as not racing today Just been asked if Hendersons Barrows edge was worth an E/Way bet so - Kempton - Still straight forward course with no real angles - so its a numbers only game - assume they all get the going as per it would be top two -
1578752966781.png

Barrows edge being backed and currently 9/2 so the e/ way value gone - Theinal now NRd - Gorto Joe another Skelton - next 12/1

So can back both Barrows Edge and Gortoe Joe win
 

tacker

Gelding
2.30 wol REASONED 11/4
Recently i have taken some more interest in times and although this horse did a decent time in comparison to others in this race over c/d the thing that struck me most was the 11.09s between the 2f to 1f, where as others only managed just over 11.80s for the same bit of their races.
It would be ridiculous to claim these numbers have much relevance but when i looked at her win12 days ago i did think it was quite impressive to the naked eye, it did seem to sap her of energy over the last furlong but that kick ended the chances of catching hier, another point to consider is an extra 7lb. Just a thought but i have had a bit on
 
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mlmrob

Sire
So can you steer me into understanding what the motives and thinking might be behind a trainers reason for entering their horse

Sorry simon boardman simon boardman just caught your post. In all qualifying series the prize at the end is always far better than the qualifier. In the Northern Lights Series, moderate horses can pick up 25k-35k. The trainer will know what mark his horse can win off and what level of horse it can beat. The qualifiers of the Northern Lights are 0-125 or less but the finals are 0-130 which allows some room for improvement. So the key is if you already have a 130 rated horse it can't run in a qualifier unless you can get its mark down and similarly if you have a 125 rated horse you can't afford for it to win a qualifier.

It is a difficult read but if a trainer has a horse qualified I doubt they will wreck its mark for a few grand.

That Pertemps Series is a nightmare to read. It started off as the Gold Card Final, a Class 2 Handicap Hurdle with no qualifiers. One of the biggest winners was the 150 rated Pharanear who won it in 1997 with 11-9 on its back. It was a class 2 handicap and had gone into the race on the back of winning the Grade 2 Rendelsham Hurdle. He was one of the best bets Ive ever had at the Festival. Martin Pipe entered a novice in the race in 1998, Unsinkable Boxer, and the beast won a Grade 1 on its next run back in Novice company. In 2002 Pertemps got involved and the race was raised to Listed class and the introduction of qualifiers as the race was being exploited. In 2018 the race was given Grade 3 status but it was still an open handicap. Very good horses win it nowadays and you are right in identifying the official ratings of ther winners. If you get the time go and watch Delta Work in his qualifier. The Albert Bartlett was talked about being his target yet a month before the Final he runs in a qualifier, finishes fourth and wins the Final. His next race he is beaten a neck in the Grade 1 3m hurdle at Punchestown.

There is a Novice Handicap Chase worth 100k at Ayr in April. There are no qualifiers but the qualifying criteria is you must have started in two novice or beginners chases during the current season. You can bet the winner of that race will have been hidden away as it is a handicap.
 

mlmrob

Sire
HARWELL TROPHY 3.25 NEWBURY ( Qualifier for Challenger Staying Series Final)

Le Boizelo has already qualified for the final. The final of the series is a 0-135

There is a trend in this race which suggests it goes to a lightly raced chaser.

11-14 WINNERS HAD RUN IN BETWEEN ONE AND FOUR CHASERS.
4 of the last 5 winners have scored on that trend. Two of the last three winners had run in a novice race before heading here.

Five horses have the above trend

Notachance, Samburu Shujaa, Django Django, Reallyradical and Linenhall.

14-14 WINNERS WENT OFF AT SINGLE FIGURE ODDS.
Those that go off at double figure odds have returned 0-95

So at the minute, Reallyradical and Linenhall are eliminated.

I'm left with Notachance, Samburu Shujaa and Django Django. Five of the last six winners of this have been rated 122+. As six of the winners of this race went on the race in Listed or better company in their next race with three of them winning, it looks like there is a well handicapped horse amongst them.

Django Django won the Challenger Staying Hurdle Final last year and if connections are going for the double, he aint going to be winning this today.

Samburu Shujaa run in a pretty hot novice chase on his chasing debut and is going to find life much easier with this drop in grade. He beat Tobefair in a handicap hurdle last year and was well fancied for the Pertemps Final. Ben Jones is 6-22 for Hobbs, 4-11 when the horse is amongst the top four on OR, so he is clearly used for his claim.

Notachance beat De Name Evades Me in a muddling race at Exeter. They pulled 10ls clear of the third. You have to forgive him his lack lustre effort round here last time as quite a few of the King horses were racing well below form at the time, with the last couple of weeks of the month returning just 2-39. This month hasn't been much better, 1-21, so therefore he is passed over.
 
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