• Hi Guest, The forum will be moving hosts on 26 July and as such will be closed from Midday until the move has completed.
    As we will be with new hosts it may take a while before DNS get updated so it could take while before you can get back on the forum.
    I think it will take at least 4 hours but could easily be 48!
    Ark Royal
  • There seems to be a problem with some alerts not being emailed to members. I have told the hosts and they are investigating.
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    It really is frustrating when the forum slows down or Server Error 500 pops up.

    Apparently the hosts acknowledge there is a problem.
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    Unfortunately, these errors are due to a higher server load. Our senior department knows about the issue and they are working towards a permanent resolution of the issue, however, I'd advise you to consider using our new cPanel cloud solutions: https://www.tsohost.com/web-hosting


    I will have to investigate what the differences are with what We have know compared to the alternative service they want us to migrate to.
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    AR

Daily Racing Insight

mlmrob

Sire
ORIONINVERNESS 12.25 NEWCASTLE

Orioninverness hasn’t won since September 2018 but this is his first race back in 0-100 since. He has been running well in better company and just over a year ago he was second to Dimple off 109 in a 0-115 and the form of the race is rock solid. Dimple went on to be rated 132 whilst those behind Orioninverness have done well too. The third horse was Cesar Et Rosalie who has won twice and is now rated 8lbs higher. In fourth was Copper West who is now rated 14lbs higher. Orioninverness also has an 8ls 4th in a 0-120 last January off 109 where he finished ahead of Pookie Pekan. Pookie Pekan runs in the 1.30 off 12lbs higher. Orioninverness has a pretty good record in 0-100, 3-7 and that improves to 3-6 under Stephen Mulqueen. That improves again over 20f-20.5f to 1181.

Pinch Of Ginger got the race in the stewards room when second to Paddling last week and has been consistent with three seconds in his recent form line. However, he has an awful record on stiff tracks, 0-5 with just one place and that was a 17ls third in a maiden hurdle at Hexham. He is up to 102 now and his two runs of this mark have resulted in him being beaten 13ls and 31ls.

Pads won his first ever race at Hexham last time but he didn’t have much to beat. The second went into that race on 1-26 and the third was the 22/1 outsider. The favourite looked awful in the parade ring and run like a drain. With the three highest rated horses in the race all performing way under their best, Pads has in effect won a 0-87. That was over two miles and he is up to 20f and he is 0-6 over 20f-21f with just one place.

What’s The Scoop was rated in the high 120s when with Nicky Henderson and his mark has dropped from 123 to 98 since he has been with Sue Smith. The bottom line is he is a weak finisher. He was fourth in a 0-105 last time off 100 but after leading three out he just didn’t get home. He has clearly had problems as he has had breaks of 236-106-328-433-184 in five races over three years, 2016-2019.

Graystown won a 0-105 off 95 last February and runs off 92 today. A line through Blakerigg suggests he has it do with Orioninverness and the fact he is 0-14 on soft or heavy ground with just two places probably makes it tougher for him. He would have a chance if on a going day but he is yet to place in seven races with seven or less runners.

Sory finished 6ls in front of Graystown at Hexham last March and is 10lbs worse off today. The yard won this race last year but the 13yo is 0-24 in his career but his best placed form has come over this distance on this ground.

Early Boy has pulled up in four of his last six races and was beaten 27ls and 95ls in the others. He is 12lbs wrong here.

Conclusion: Orioninverness has much better form on his CV than these and his trainer couldn’t have picked an easier race for him. What’s The Scoop and Pinch Of Ginger will ensure the pace is true and if the course is riding like the last meeting then being held up could mean trouble. Orioninverness should track the pace and he should just pick them off at will. Lucinda Russell has had three winners this week and Orioninverness looks likely to be another.
 
Lingfield 2.15 Velvet Morn
Boom The Groom

Win Dutch @ bf sp


A place lay on Venture could easily have been the bet; h/cap debut from stall 11 and a very poor price at 2/1 .

I'm hoping the fav's price holds up as Velvet Morn is currently around 22.0 on the exchange which looks decent to me.

All 4 h/cap runs have had excuses for a variety of reasons; class/ trip and two runs were badly interfered. Her maiden win certainly stands up .

Boom The Groom looks doomed from stall1 and at 9yo may be regressing, but assuming he needed the run lto , he's effectively dropping from grade 2 level to C5 in one hit. Hopefully still have enough early pace to get an early pitch and get off the rail on the turn.

The fav may be ahead of his mark, but he's simply too short in my book.
 

mlmrob

Sire
Brilliant write up mimrob, may I ask how long you spend on a race?

Depends, that one didn't take long to get wrong as so many had points on their licence.

I spent about 30 minutes on the 3.15 at Wincanton and swerved the race, 15 minutes on the Tolworth, swerved. I can swerve a race in minutes because there is too many with chances. Somedays I can spend an hour or so if there is a possibility. It just depends on how the race falls apart.
 

mickeddy

Colt
Looked at the 2-40 Plumpton and have:
Billy Bronco *, who will be suited by the conditions today, negatives are only 2/12 left handed and the jockey is 0/9 on him. He has been raised 8lb by the handicapper for his last win over 3m 2.5f at Sedgefield in which only two finished. Has also won at Towcester, Ayr and Exeter where he beat Lithic 0.5L with Garrane 6.5L back in 3rd. Will enjoy a stamina test today on this ground. Will need to be at his best here but he is drifting markedly in the betting.
Hard To Forget, also has a career high mark to overcome here so will need to improve again today. He is a 3m PTP winner also won 3m 1f H'c chase at Hereford staying on strongly at finish. Last time out won 3m 1.5f H'c chase at Plumpton leading before the last and clear final 110 yards beating Reallyradical 16L. This was a career best but has more to do today off his revised mark.
All about stamina and one to watch.
Christmas In April, seems to need time between his races and has won a bumper, (2016) and beat Quiz Master 0.5L at Warwick (2018) in what appeared to be a strong race for the grade. Following a 186 day break he was beaten 6L by La Cavsa Nostra at Chepstow took him a while to get going and will be better for race, last time he won 3m 2f nov H'c chase at Fontwell making all and keeping on well after the last.
Should be more to come from him.
Uallrightharry, won 3m 2f H'c chase at Fontwell beating Newtown Lad,
(2/9 favourite.) 3.5L running on strongly.
After 206 day break won 3m 1.5f H'c chase Plumpton beating Don't Be Robin 2.25L from a 7lb higher mark. Shown himself to be on the upgrade here. Last time UR 3m 1.5f H'c chase Plumpton 3rd and staying on when mistake and UR rider next. He was running well off a 4lb higher mark and would have gone very close bar the mistake. Still worth another chance.
Has been raised another 2lb here.
Conclusion, a competitive handicap as you would expect for the money, with maybe BB being the weakest according to the market.
 
Wolver 4.15 Sarasota @ 9.4
Rocksbury @ 6.8

40/60 split

I'd happily back Ben Robinson blindly in these apprentice races , but unless Sharrabang hits 30.+, I'm looking elsewhere.

Agent Of Fortune is the best horse. but really needs the pace to be strong and not get stuck behind slow horses.

Rockesbury will probably get pressure for the early lead, but seems capable of picking a race of this nature up.

Sarasota ran in same lto race and showed improvement back on flat with trouble in running, so gets a smaller bet
 

markfinn

Sire
Wolver 4.15 Sarasota @ 9.4
Rocksbury @ 6.8

40/60 split

I'd happily back Ben Robinson blindly in these apprentice races , but unless Sharrabang hits 30.+, I'm looking elsewhere.

Agent Of Fortune is the best horse. but really needs the pace to be strong and not get stuck behind slow horses.

Rockesbury will probably get pressure for the early lead, but seems capable of picking a race of this nature up.

Sarasota ran in same lto race and showed improvement back on flat with trouble in running, so gets a smaller bet
bloody hell wrong race
1578330475462.png
 

mlmrob

Sire
COLONEL CUSTARD 3.00 TAUNTON

Colonel Custard takes a drop in class after finishing a well beaten fifth on Boxing Day at Kempton where he didn’t stay 21f. His back form though is very good. Two runs back he was beaten 12ls by Song For Someone who has since been beaten 4ls in a Listed race off 11lbs higher. As Colonel Custard was trying to give Song For Someone 3lbs that has to be marked up. In his third last race Colonel Custard ran in the Welsh Champion Hurdle and finished third beaten 6ls by Monsieur LeCoq. Again that performance needs marked up with the winner subsequently finishing third in the Grade 3 Greatwood off 7lbs higher, then fourth in the Grade 2 International Hurdle and second in another Grade 3 off 12lbs higher. Colonel Custard gave Monsier LeCoq 1lb. The handicapper has dropped Colonel Custard 2lbs and because of the entry of Spederek, he gets to carry less physical weight than in his last two races. He is best on flat tracks and his record over distances less than 20f reads 311213 and that improves when Matt Griffiths rides to 112.
 
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