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Daily Racing Insight

mlmrob

Sire
BANGOR 12.45

What’s The Scoop comes from a yard that hasn’t got going yet and it looks from the outside there may be a problem at the Sue Smith barn. It looked likely they would have had a winner at Carlisle on Monday but for a fall so they could be coming back to form. However, What’s The Scoop looks to have had physical problems as well as he has only been seen three times since leaving Nicky Henderson in the summer of 2017.

Truckers Highway is rated 121 and as he is 0-15 with one place off marks above 116, he is passed over.

Zolfo is yet to place in four races off marks above 104. However, he is 2-2 over this course and distance but he looks a summer horse as his record between September and December reads 0-6, never placed.

West Wizard has won on soft but he appears to find heavy ground too much, 0-5 with just the one place. He is well handicapped but is 1-18 going left handed
But more worrying is the fact he is better giving weight away to inferior horses in handicaps. His record when carrying 11-7 or less reads 0-13, never placed. In fact, both his wins were when he carried 11-11+.

Steel Wave is 2-2 over course and distance but he looks like he will need this as he is 0-8 when returning after a break of 60 days+ with just the one place and that was on his debut for Willie Mullins.

Mr Mcgo is 0-6 beyond 19.5f, no places, and hasn’t placed in four races when returning after a break of 60 days.

That leaves me with one horse and that is Arctic Gold who is thrown in off 115. His profile suggests he has everything in his favour today. His record on heavy ground in single figure fields reads 111U2222 and he hasn’t had those conditions for two years. The last time he had these conditions he was a 1.5ls second to Town Parks off 131.
In December 2017 Arctic Gold fell when leading in the Grand Sefton and that fall looks to have had an affect as Arctic Gold is still a novice over the larger obstacles, 0-12. He hasn’t run in a chase since December last year and has had three confidence building races over hurdles. He is 9lbs lower than he was in December. Now he has his ideal conditions, he should beat this lot.

Thoughts on the race welcome
 

mjay

Colt
I had Steel Wave on my shortlist, but have to agree with you - all his 5 wins have come within 20 days since a last run. He is however 2 from 2 in class 4 chases and the trainer has a 41% strike rate in class 4 chases at the course, (7 wins from 17 runs). I am swerving the race....
 

mlmrob

Sire
BANGOR 1.50

Arthurs Gift and Looksnowtlikebrian both carried condition in the same race at Carlisle last time and both should strip fitter today. There was a nose between them at the line but Arthurs Gift is 2lbs better off today.
Arthurs Gift takes a couple of races to get fit as he has won his third race of the campaign for the last two seasons. But he has never placed in eight races once his mark has gone over 130.

Looksnowtlikebrian likes to clout the odd fence but on the whole he jumps well. However, he is 0-3, never placed, when racing off marks of 130+. Tim Vaughan has had 21 runners this month and only has a long odds on shot winner to show for it.

Commodore has won twice and placed once in eight races but those efforts were all on undulating tracks. His record on flat tracks reads 0-3, never placed and two of those were at Bangor.

Classic Ben is 0-5, one place but he was still beaten 10ls, off marks above 130. He is lightly raced and will probably need this as he did on his first run last season. He is reported to have a race at Sandown next month as his main target.

Calipso Collognes is 5-7 on soft or heavy ground, 5-6 for Olly Murphy. The BHA rated the horse 131 after finishing second to Tommy Silver at Ludlow earlier in the year and with that horse winning again off 6lbs higher then Calipso Collognes looks well in off 129.

Kayf Adventure is 3-5 on heavy and is very close to being well handicapped again. He is 0-8 off marks above 133 with a couple of places but they were defeats of 7ls and 8ls. Saying that, he should run well as he won on his seasonal debut two years ago.

I Just Know comes from the out of form Smith yard and he is yet to place in three races on heavy ground. He is 0-6 on flat tracks.

Graceful Legend is yet to place in four races beyond 22.5f and is 0-11 on soft or heavy but has placed.

Conclusion: Calipso Collonges is improving hand over fist since joining Olly Murphy and has already run to a mark higher than todays 129. He thrives on the ground and looks a decent bet to take this.

Thoughts welcome
 

mjay

Colt
Again I had Classic Ben on my shortlist and for the same reasons as you have mentioned am watching rather than backing!
I agree that this looks like a prep run for a higher prize - see his penultimate run , a win over this distance at Sandown as you mention.
Some good winners have come out of that race.

The only thing that would put me off your conclusion is that Calipso Collonges is 0 wins, 0 places from 4 runs at this time of year.
 
@mlmrob @mjay - sorry to be brief

Steel no Record on the going - but not run on such - sire
1573643961880.png

1573646004387.png

Arctic 7Lb test in the saddle every thing OK well in CC and dropped in class
Truckers can find no fault
Steel Wave Going ? but sire sta over 10% OK but rise in class and OR - I have him at CC 111
West W CC 115 everything else OK
Zoffillo - out classed on what we know - Unknown are MR M and WTScoop

so has to be Artic at 11/2 or better

WTScoop would appear to possess teh connections with best knowledge in the saddle - so will be interesting to see where he goes next

1573646512472.png
 

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TonCon

Yearling
I also looked at the 1.50 race and initially thought that Commodore looked a fair bet at around 11/4 based on his figures, trainer/jockey form, plus the fact that Venetia Williams won this race last year.

I hadn't realised his previous form at Bangor was so duff. Will watch this race now with increased interest.
Many thanks all.
 
Selections didn't run too well but that was pretty deep at bangor. Arctic Gold may pop up in a 0-115.

Classic Ben run as if he will be cherry ripe at sandown next month.
Never like the 1st race of a meeting and the ground was truly atrocious - Bangor is not on my list think its one of the "fairer courses", one that most are capable of getting on the day- but its good to be pushed into different areas , its all part of the learning curve. the winner - Zof I noticed his course form but with no chase form to look at I would have been guessing at best.
 
wolver 5.45 Able Handy win @ 6.4

The horse is on the drift and I did consider an in running trade, but if he does bag the early lead, should hopefully have the class to stay in front.

Best run this year at Chester, so no concern re turning track and put up a decent run lto at Newcastle from far side of track in better class. His bad run here was 2f beyond his best trip
 

tacker

Colt
6.15 newc....ETIKAAL struck me as a horse that won with a bit in hand lto over 7f and it will be interesting to see if he can travel as well over 6f, I understand little about times but notice he ran a quicker final furlong over 7f than todays opposition did over 6f either way he might be good enough to win this. Just a small bet @ 6/1 but now 2 non runners.
 
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