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Daily Racing Insight

hedgehog

Mare
Hello all,

Been a while since I contributed properly

Listowel 4.40 hc CH 2m4f yielding about 21k

The first 6 in the betting are Dean's road, Mrs lovett, gwencily berbas, ask Susan, cabaret queen and the big lense in racecard order.

Ask Susan is the favourite but is 0/8 at the distance and 0/5 with the prize both of which make it a false favourite in my eyes. It's consistent and competitive lto but way too short.

Mrs lovett wasn't competitive lto and is 0/6 with the OR so ignored also.

Cabaret queen is another not competitive lto but does have the redeeming features of 1/2 on the going and won with the OR. Its not Been competitive at this level recently and is trying the prize for the first time. Ignored.

The big lense wasn't competitive either lto but is 2/5 at the distance. It's trying the prize for the first time and not recently competitive at the level. Ignored.

Gwencily berbas is yet again not competitive lto and has recently been in ptp races. It has won with the OR and prize but pu lto when the 1st and 2nd in that race both pu lto doesn't fill me with joy. Ignored

That leaves Dean's road. Competitive lto and also with this prize, consistent and 2/3 at the course, 1/4 at the distance, 3/4 on the going, 1/1 with the jockey. Has tried the OR once and failed and the prize twice and failed but neither of these can be seen as a negative, more of a testing the ground. This is my selection

Dean's road is currently 7/1 with lots of positive factors and though I prefer more than one in a race if betting it would be a straight win bet

Good luck today
 

tacker

Colt
york 4.30
Having now had another look at the race i still think it's much too tight to fancy owt but @mlmrob does make a decent case for PENDLETON and i'd expect it will run well but his form is mixed up with horses closely matched. Both runs from JONAH JONES suggested he might appreciate a drop back down to 6f and has won over c/d so is another with a chance. good luck.
 

mlmrob

Sire
KENDRED SOUL 1.55 CATTERICK

Kendred Soul sticks to non-handicaps and he has form that is in a different league to those that have run. In July he was 3.5ls behind Under The Stars who has subsequently won the Group 3 Princess Margaret and was beaten 1.75ls in the Group 2 Lowther. Requiem’s Dream who was second in the Ripon race has subsequently won twice and has a BHA rating of 77. One and half lengths behind Kendred Soul at Ripon was Knightcap who has won since and is rated 72. My Motivate Girl who finished fifth has won twice including off 66 last night.
Kendred Soul then bumped into Incinerator over this course and distance and was beaten a head and that horse has since won off 76. Kendred Soul was a good thing when he dotted up in a Beverley maiden last month and that form indirectly links him into Group 3 form through Second Love who finished fifth.
This Catterick race has been run for five years and so far those that have had less than two career starts have returned 0-27 with just three places. It looks a very interesting placement from Jedd O Keefe as he could have gone down the nursery route but he prefers to run the filly under a winners penalty.

INDIAN PURSUIT 4.35 CATTERICK

Indian Pursuit is 5-12 at Catterick over 6f but 0-6 in Class 5 or Class 4. He is 5-6 in Class 6 and he bids to win this race for the third year in a row. In the last two years he has run at the Catterick meeting the week before winning this and he was only 3.5ls down in fourth in a 0-75 last week over course and distance. He has got himself a 1lb drop for that so he races off the same mark as last year and 3lbs lower than 2017. Indian Pursuit has won 8 times in his career with five of those off marks 59-62. Today looks like it’s his day.
 

Dave

Colt
KENDRED SOUL 1.55 CATTERICK

Kendred Soul sticks to non-handicaps and he has form that is in a different league to those that have run. In July he was 3.5ls behind Under The Stars who has subsequently won the Group 3 Princess Margaret and was beaten 1.75ls in the Group 2 Lowther. Requiem’s Dream who was second in the Ripon race has subsequently won twice and has a BHA rating of 77. One and half lengths behind Kendred Soul at Ripon was Knightcap who has won since and is rated 72. My Motivate Girl who finished fifth has won twice including off 66 last night.
Kendred Soul then bumped into Incinerator over this course and distance and was beaten a head and that horse has since won off 76. Kendred Soul was a good thing when he dotted up in a Beverley maiden last month and that form indirectly links him into Group 3 form through Second Love who finished fifth.
This Catterick race has been run for five years and so far those that have had less than two career starts have returned 0-27 with just three places. It looks a very interesting placement from Jedd O Keefe as he could have gone down the nursery route but he prefers to run the filly under a winners penalty.

INDIAN PURSUIT 4.35 CATTERICK

Indian Pursuit is 5-12 at Catterick over 6f but 0-6 in Class 5 or Class 4. He is 5-6 in Class 6 and he bids to win this race for the third year in a row. In the last two years he has run at the Catterick meeting the week before winning this and he was only 3.5ls down in fourth in a 0-75 last week over course and distance. He has got himself a 1lb drop for that so he races off the same mark as last year and 3lbs lower than 2017. Indian Pursuit has won 8 times in his career with five of those off marks 59-62. Today looks like it’s his day.
@mlmrob good luck, I have backed two in this race as the price last night permitted it Indian Pursuit and Rose Marmara. Indian Pursuit for all the same reason that you have mentioned, I think John Quinn is following a proven winning formula as far as this gelding is concerned. As for Rose Marmara Catterick suits front running types with early pace and she has that as proven last week when just failing to hold off Rux Ruxx who is a progressive filly. The drop back to 6F should suit and I think we are in for a cracking race. I have had a combination forecast on both the above and added in Sfumato. Fingers crossed it goes to plan....
 

mlmrob

Sire
ADDIS ABABA 4.50 AYR

Addis Ababa has performance figures between 85 and 89 in five of his last six races and is 3lbs well in today as he is due to go up to 88 on Saturday.
Six days ago, he run Scottish Summit to half a length and was terribly unlucky to bump into a horse running under his ideal conditions who had form figures 122122 under such. It was 3.5ls back to third. In his second last race Addis Ababa was third to Coolagh Forest in a 0-90 off 85. The winner was dropping two grades. But the performance that takes the eye is his second over 10.5f on soft ground at York in June where he recorded a performance figure of 89. Carrying 9-8 he failed by length to hold off Music Seeker and with the third, fourth, fifth, sixth and eighth all subsequently winning the form is rock solid.

Fannie By Gaslight is 1lb well in as she is due to go up to 76 from Saturday. She got 5lbs for this as the conditions of the race stated. Her record off marks above 70 reads 0-7 with three places and in one of those three places she recorded a performance figure of 79 albeit as a 3yo when third to Jedhi. She must improve to take this but that is possible.

Glasses Up only ever wins at Ayr and is 3-5 over 10f on good or quicker ground. He is yet to place in seven races over course and distance on good to soft or slower.

Employer has run over a variety of distances. He drops back to 10f today after running well over 13f the other day and his second to Stonific in March off 81 over 10f looks his best form of the season, performance figure of 81. Off a mark of 75 he has a chance, but he has struggled in both his races on soft and heavy. He couldn’t lift his feet out of the ground when fourth to Donnachies Girl on heavy earlier this summer in a 0-75 off 74.

Iron Mike couldn’t take advantage of the 7lbs WFA last time when second to Dreams And Visions over 13f and he got himself 4lbs for his efforts in that 0-70. He is massively up in grade and is yet to place in four races on good to soft or slower and yet to place in 7 races shorter than 12f.

Navigate By Stars looks like she has been bought to go hurdling and she has struggled in both her races on soft ground. She is also running off a mark in the 70s and she is yet to place in five races off marks that high.

Kilbarchan must have had a problem as this is her first race for almost a year. Mark Johnston’s record since 2016 with horses that have been off for 300 days+ reads 0-29 with just four places.

Athmad has dropped 15lbs in the weights this season which is unsurprising as he is a weak finisher and was rated far too high on what he had achieved. The handicapper has realised his mistake and his mark is dropping like a stone. Athmads fourth to Skyman in a 0-80 last time was his best performance of the season as his performance figures have seen him running at least 5lbs below his mark. That last performance rating was just 4lbs below his mark and with a another 2lbs drop from the handicapper he is getting close to winning again. Brian Meehan has sent the horse a long way to a track where he is 1-20.

Detachment only wins at Beverley and Pontefract and with two meetings in October at Pontefract, 7th and 21st, Detachment may well be getting ready for those meetings. He has unplaced in all three races on soft ground and with his mark now down to 73 he will have a choice of engagements at which he is 3-8.

Dancin Boy is 0-4 on good to soft or slower.

Flint Hill has never placed in six races beyond 7f.

Conclusion: Only a few will get into this and with Addis Ababa the only horse rated in the 80s in this 0-85, it does look a very good opportunity. He handles all the conditions and it will be run to suit as Kilbarchan is the only recognised front runner. Provided he doesn’t fall asleep in the stalls, cheekpieces look to have over relaxed him, he should be able to track the pace. He has clocked three speed figures in the 70s in his last five races compared to his rivals who have one between them. He won’t get a better chance of a win as he is due to go up to 88 this Saturday and will not be able to race at this level.
 
ADDIS ABABA 4.50 AYR

Addis Ababa has performance figures between 85 and 89 in five of his last six races and is 3lbs well in today as he is due to go up to 88 on Saturday.
Six days ago, he run Scottish Summit to half a length and was terribly unlucky to bump into a horse running under his ideal conditions who had form figures 122122 under such. It was 3.5ls back to third. In his second last race Addis Ababa was third to Coolagh Forest in a 0-90 off 85. The winner was dropping two grades. But the performance that takes the eye is his second over 10.5f on soft ground at York in June where he recorded a performance figure of 89. Carrying 9-8 he failed by length to hold off Music Seeker and with the third, fourth, fifth, sixth and eighth all subsequently winning the form is rock solid.

Fannie By Gaslight is 1lb well in as she is due to go up to 76 from Saturday. She got 5lbs for this as the conditions of the race stated. Her record off marks above 70 reads 0-7 with three places and in one of those three places she recorded a performance figure of 79 albeit as a 3yo when third to Jedhi. She must improve to take this but that is possible.

Glasses Up only ever wins at Ayr and is 3-5 over 10f on good or quicker ground. He is yet to place in seven races over course and distance on good to soft or slower.

Employer has run over a variety of distances. He drops back to 10f today after running well over 13f the other day and his second to Stonific in March off 81 over 10f looks his best form of the season, performance figure of 81. Off a mark of 75 he has a chance, but he has struggled in both his races on soft and heavy. He couldn’t lift his feet out of the ground when fourth to Donnachies Girl on heavy earlier this summer in a 0-75 off 74.

Iron Mike couldn’t take advantage of the 7lbs WFA last time when second to Dreams And Visions over 13f and he got himself 4lbs for his efforts in that 0-70. He is massively up in grade and is yet to place in four races on good to soft or slower and yet to place in 7 races shorter than 12f.

Navigate By Stars looks like she has been bought to go hurdling and she has struggled in both her races on soft ground. She is also running off a mark in the 70s and she is yet to place in five races off marks that high.

Kilbarchan must have had a problem as this is her first race for almost a year. Mark Johnston’s record since 2016 with horses that have been off for 300 days+ reads 0-29 with just four places.

Athmad has dropped 15lbs in the weights this season which is unsurprising as he is a weak finisher and was rated far too high on what he had achieved. The handicapper has realised his mistake and his mark is dropping like a stone. Athmads fourth to Skyman in a 0-80 last time was his best performance of the season as his performance figures have seen him running at least 5lbs below his mark. That last performance rating was just 4lbs below his mark and with a another 2lbs drop from the handicapper he is getting close to winning again. Brian Meehan has sent the horse a long way to a track where he is 1-20.

Detachment only wins at Beverley and Pontefract and with two meetings in October at Pontefract, 7th and 21st, Detachment may well be getting ready for those meetings. He has unplaced in all three races on soft ground and with his mark now down to 73 he will have a choice of engagements at which he is 3-8.

Dancin Boy is 0-4 on good to soft or slower.

Flint Hill has never placed in six races beyond 7f.

Conclusion: Only a few will get into this and with Addis Ababa the only horse rated in the 80s in this 0-85, it does look a very good opportunity. He handles all the conditions and it will be run to suit as Kilbarchan is the only recognised front runner. Provided he doesn’t fall asleep in the stalls, cheekpieces look to have over relaxed him, he should be able to track the pace. He has clocked three speed figures in the 70s in his last five races compared to his rivals who have one between them. He won’t get a better chance of a win as he is due to go up to 88 this Saturday and will not be able to race at this level.
Excellent Write up
 
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