• Hi Guest Just in case you were not aware I wanted to highlight that you can now get a free 7 day trial of Horseracebase here.
    We have a lot of members who are existing users of Horseracebase so help is always available if needed, as well as dedicated section of the fourm here.
    Best Wishes
    AR

Daily Racing Insight

BRIGHTON 6.45 and 7.15

Since the start of the 2022 season, Jim Boyle's record at Brighton reads 7-46. However, that improves dramatically when he has more than one runner in a race. He has saddled more than one runner in five races and won four of them. The only other track where this has worked is unsurprisingly Epsom where he is 6-19.
Both are switchback tracks and Boyle trains on the track at Epsom.

Of the ten winners, everyone went off at 12/1 or less.

He sends The Conqueror and Irezumi in the 6.45 and Buy The Dip and Otago in the 7.15.
The only time he has had two in two races was in September 2022 where he had two winners.
 
PLATINUM PRINCE 4.40 LINGFIELD

Platinum Prince drops to one level off the ground floor but his profile suggests today may well be the day he turns his form around.
His record in handicaps when carrying 9-2-9-6 reads 4-15 which improves to 4-9 when the top weight is rated 65 or less. It improves again to 3-3 when the top weight is rated 61 or less.
Platinum Prince run really well when second to McTed in a 0-60 last time. He met a bit of trouble in the straight but did run on. With McTed rated 60 and the third home rated 59 the form looks sound and he meets lesser ability horses today.
Anna Gibson rides him a lot and is 2-2 under his ideal conditions.
Gary Moore dragged himself off the cold list with a winner the other day and Anna rode One Step Beyond into a close third yesterday.
 
1000 Guineas

Record of Stallions in Group 1s in 3yo only Group 1s

1714906812681.png

Frankel has a very good record with his 3yo crop winning 11 of 43 3yo only Group1s. He has Ylang Ylang and Regal Jubilee today.
Nine of those 11 winners came in May and June. He has only won one at Newmarket, Chaldean last year. However, the last two 3yo fillies to race in a Group 1 over 8f at 3yo both won, Inspiral and Homeless Songs.
 
GROSVENOR SQUARE 3.40 CHESTER

Grosvenor Square has TheBluesBrother TheBluesBrother speed handicap rating of 90 whilst the rest of the field have yet to break 80. That should stand him in good stead as should the trends below.

SIRE GALILEO, TRAINER AIDAN O BRIEN
Of the 11 races they have combined they have won 7 from 15 horses.

However, that improves to 7-8 when the horse goes off at 7/2 or less.

O Brien also saddles Agenda who has the same sire.

Grosvenor Square is a half brother to Santiago who won the Irish Derby. He holds entries in both Derbys as well as the Eclipse and is clearly thought to be top drawer. He won first time out as a 2yo and Timeform have Grosvenor Square 15lbs clear of Agenda and is 10lbs clear of anything else.
 
ASCOT 3.30

8-10 WINNERS HAD AN OR OF 89 TO 96
The two outliers were in 2022 when the winner was rated 81 and in 2014 when Blessington was rated 87.

10-10 WINNERS HAD A TOP FIVE FINISH IN THEIR LAST RACE.
Those who finished sixth or worse have returned 0-52.

Combined the two trends have found 8 of the last ten winners with a profit of 18.5 points.

Clearly the better horses have come to the fore in this 0-95 and this year only Billyjoh qualifies.

Billyjoh was second last time to the improving Al Barez who was favourite and had won his previous race, as favourite. There was a neck between them at the line and 1.5ls back to third. The BHA performance Figure for that race for Billyjoh was 93 and he gets to race off 90 here. With his three figures before last time reading, 88, 89 and 90, he looks sure to run close to his mark.
 
CATTERICK 1.45

This apprentice race has been run for 9 years under the current conditions.

9-9 WINNERS DRAWN IN STALLS 1-5.
Im probably stretching it a wee bit as there were only five runners when Paris Mountain won two years ago.

Tim Easterby has won the last two.

The five qualifiers this year are Asmund, Obee Joe, Temper Trap, Rain Cap and Glory Call.

Obee Joe takes the eye. He won this last year on his second start and he comes here after running with this race in mind in a 0-77 last month.
Four of his last five wins have come at Catterick and when winning this last year he was three quarters of a length in front of Mutanaaseq and Obee Joe is 6lbs better off this year. He is 3lbs higher on ORs.

Mutanaaseq is 4-7 over this course and distance off marks of 67 or less and has won from an outside draw before so he is a live danger as these two beat each other regularly. Brandon Wilkie who brode Obee Joe last year is on Mutanaaseq and he has won the last two on Easterby horses. However, I think he left Great Habton last summer to be Karl Burke's apprentice.

With a record of 0-13 and one place in the months January to May and with his last win in October 2022, it is hard to make a case for Asmund. His three wins have come on straight flat tracks but he was second to Mutanaaseq around here last year with Obee Joe miles behind. He is 1lb better off with Obee Joe and 4lbs better off with Mutanaaseq. This is his level and he should be thereabouts.

Temper Trap is handicapped to win again but he has never placed in four races round Catterick. He will one to look out for when he goes to Hamilton, 5-10 on the outskirts of Glasgow.

Rain Cap likes Catterick but has never won after a break of 120 days+, 0-5, no places.

Glory Call is yet to place in five races on grass. Better on the synthetics.

It is a couple of years since Saisons Dor got his head in front on turf. He will popular as he does tick a lot of boxes. But, his record when one of the top two on official ratings reads 1-17 and that win was three years ago on the synthetics. He is 0-9 with four places on turf.

Variety Island won a 0-55 round here last time finishing just under 3ls in front of Asmund. His mark is up to 50 from 46 and he is up two grades. He did win a 2yo nursery off 56 in 0-65 but since he turned 3yo his record in 0-60 and 0-65 reads 0-11.

Conclusion: There is little to separate Obee Joe and Mutanaaseq apart from the draw. If there is a strong pace it will suit Mutanaaseq more than Obee Joe but there is no guarantee it will be run at pace so both shall be backed.
 
JORVIK HANDICAP 2.15 YORK

Fourteen runners go to post and as every year it is a minefield. However, there are a couple of trends which can narrow the field.

10-11 WINNERS CAME FROM STALLS 5-10.
Outside that range only one horse has won from seventy-seven that have tried and that was Arab Spring in 2014 and by the time he had finished his season he was rated 112, 16lbs higher.

10-11 WINNERS HAD A TOP FIVE FINISH IN THEIR LATEST RACE.
Those horses that finished outside the first five have returned 1-57 with the 2017 winner Lord Yeats the outlier.

Since 2012 the trends have found 30 qualifiers of which 9 have won and returned a profit of 34 points by backing every qualifier blind.

This year,

CRYSTAL DELIGHT, KIHAVAH, FLASH BARDOT and LIGHTENING COMPANY have qualified.

Crystal Delight won on his seasonal debut at Epsom winning the City and Suburban Handicap by 5.5lengths. The handicapper has given him 9lbs for that victory. He should have the improvement in him to overcome the penalty He was eighth in this race last year as second favourite off a mark of 90 but he does seem a better horse after a break.

Kihavah won the ‘Getting Out Handicap’ on this card last year off 81 and is 16lbs higher this year in this stronger race. He had a pipe opener at Newmarket over 16f earlier this month and should be fitter today, back over 12f.

Flash Bardot is 4-6 over 12f and won as she pleased last time taking her record on soft and heavy ground to 3-3. She has won on good to firm but she is much better with cut and she is now on a career high mark of 93. If York get rain and the ground eases, her chance will increase. Fillies are just 1-19 in this.

Lightening Company has yet to place in five races on good or good to firm and he has never run over 12f. His second to Bolster last time at Pontefract does look good form as that horse goes for a Group 3 this weekend.
 
Back
Top