• Hi Guest, The forum will be moving hosts on 26 July and as such will be closed from Midday until the move has completed.
    As we will be with new hosts it may take a while before DNS get updated so it could take while before you can get back on the forum.
    I think it will take at least 4 hours but could easily be 48!
    Ark Royal
  • There seems to be a problem with some alerts not being emailed to members. I have told the hosts and they are investigating.
  • Hi Guest Just in case you were not aware I wanted to highlight that you can now get a 20% discount on Inform Racing.
    Simply enter the coupon code ukbettingform when subscribing here.
    We have a lot of members who are existing users of Inform Racing so help is always available if needed.
    Best Wishes
    AR
  • Sorry for the ongoing issues that you may have been experiencing whilst using the forum lately

    It really is frustrating when the forum slows down or Server Error 500 pops up.

    Apparently the hosts acknowledge there is a problem.
    Thank you for using our services and sorry for the experienced delay!
    Unfortunately, these errors are due to a higher server load. Our senior department knows about the issue and they are working towards a permanent resolution of the issue, however, I'd advise you to consider using our new cPanel cloud solutions: https://www.tsohost.com/web-hosting


    I will have to investigate what the differences are with what We have know compared to the alternative service they want us to migrate to.
    Keep safe.
    AR
  • Hi Guest Just in case you were not aware I wanted to highlight that you can now get a free 7 day trial of Horseracebase here.
    We have a lot of members who are existing users of Horseracebase so help is always available if needed, as well as dedicated section of the fourm here.
    Best Wishes
    AR

Corners formula

I worked out a formula that predicts the number of corners in a footbal match.
The formula depends on the odds for 1-2-X and on the national / divisional averages.

First I make the odds into probabilities.
If the (decimal) prices for home win-draw-away win are a,b,c respectively then:

prob. home win = H = k / a
prob. draw = D = k / b
prob. away win = A = k / c

where k is a constant = 1 / ( 1/a + 1/b + 1/c )

The formula for the mean number of corners expected for the case of the premier is:

M = 8.19 + (3.55 * H) ^ 0.76 + (1.58 * A) ^ 6.98 - 0.03 ^ 1.28 * (1 - D ^ 1.28 )

For other divisions I multiply M by an adjustment factor, using the data for the national averages from windrawwin.com.

The probability for any number of corners is then computed using the Poisson distribution (Poisson distribution - Wikipedia).
The probability spectrum is not however exactly Poisson, it is somewhat flattened and the Poisson values have to be raised to the exponent 0.88
(that is make p = p(Poisson) ^ 0.88 then normalize to 1).

I know that the number of corners also depends on the systems of the teams.
With high defenses (crowded midfield) there are usually few corners, with low defenses more corners.
Also the fluctuation of the scoreline. With an early 3-0 lead, everyone goes to bed and there won't be many corners.
But it's a starting point the way I did it.

Also a friend tells me this:
In the live betting look for cases when the home team concedes an early goal to an inferior or somewhat inferior team - then there will be an avalanche of
corners. Intuitively that sounds true.

Do you know anything more that might help ?
 
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