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Compiling Speed figures.

@tapie93

Very good effort.

In this example, I used the RP standard times.

Where possible I use the 3 fastest times.
On ordinary race meetings, I work to -8 variable, where meetings have group races I work to a variable of -22
and on NH I work to -28.
The reasoning behind the variable method is to have consistency from meeting to meeting, for example, if the going is heavy sometimes it can be very difficult to calculate an accurate going allowance, using the variables method does help, I have been using this method for several years. producing what I consider accurate speed figures.

Deauville.png

You seem to have a problem with your adj/comp figures the formula is =E4+G4

Adjust.PNG

Mike.
 
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tapie93

Yearling
@tapie93

Very good effort.

In this example, I used the RP standard times.

Where possible I use the 3 fastest times.
On ordinary race meetings, I work to -8 variable, where meetings have group races I work to a variable of -22
and on NH I work to -28.
The reasoning behind the variable method is to have consistency from meeting to meeting, for example, if the going is heavy sometimes it can be very difficult to calculate an accurate going allowance, using the variables method does help, I have been using this method for several years. producing what I consider accurate speed figures.

View attachment 79409

You seem to have a problem with your adj/comp figures the formula is =E4+G4

View attachment 79411

Mike.
1575223106261.png
 

tapie93

Yearling
[QUOTE = "TheBluesBrother, post: 439386, membre: 210"]
Pour l'instant, le RP n'a publié que 8 courses.

Mike.
[/CITATION]

@TheBluesBrother

I take the races on pmu.fr for the French races instead of taking on racingpost
 
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Envoi Allen didn't disappoint earning the top speed figure on the day of 117.

ENVOI ALLEN is living up to the immense promise of his bumper career. He was always relaxed once the race got under way, displaying a polished hurdling technique and an economic style of running which should stand to him as things get more serious in the second half of the season. He was able to quicken without any fuss when his Grade 3-winning stablemate attempted to challenge. If all continues to go well, he is going to be a proper star.

Today's top Fairyhouse speed figures:
011219Table.png

011219.png

Mike.
 

davejb

Mare
Hi @TheBluesBrother and @tapie93
just to avoid a possible misunderstanding his adjcomp is correct for the adj and comp figures he is using, it's the adj column where he has rather higher figures than yourself Mike, and that is because adj = allowance x distance(f) and Tapie has an allowance of 0.41 compared to your 0.28s/f. Using the data from Tapie's post and a spreadsheet I get the same 0.41s/f

1575234341920.png

If leaving the last race off and using Showmethegin instead for the top 3 OR-rtg figures I get an allowance of 0.36 s/f... note that with a bit of rounding some figures would change a little bit, but I don't think he has any errors there, the difference is because you are using different OR values for the winners - despite having the same 3 winners used for the comparison, you have House Captain at 67 where Tapie has him at 59, Showmethegin at 52 (Tapie is using 48) and Shere Calm at 88 compared to Tapie's rating of 79. Using Mike's values for the three OR's I also get 0.28s/f as below

1575235605935.png

Tapie has also got a lbs/len of 2.63 for the 6.5f races compared to your 2.65, I noticed. I'm guessing you are using the RPR conversion to obtain OR's Mike, whilst Tapie is getting different values from his datafeed. so there's no mistake in the method, it's just down to using different data.

(Considering I actually came on here to post my daily stuff an hour ago and got caught up in wondering where the sums were going wrong, perhaps I'd better get back in my box!)

Dave
 

tapie93

Yearling
Hi @TheBluesBrother and @tapie93
just to avoid a possible misunderstanding his adjcomp is correct for the adj and comp figures he is using, it's the adj column where he has rather higher figures than yourself Mike, and that is because adj = allowance x distance(f) and Tapie has an allowance of 0.41 compared to your 0.28s/f. Using the data from Tapie's post and a spreadsheet I get the same 0.41s/f

View attachment 79419

If leaving the last race off and using Showmethegin instead for the top 3 OR-rtg figures I get an allowance of 0.36 s/f... note that with a bit of rounding some figures would change a little bit, but I don't think he has any errors there, the difference is because you are using different OR values for the winners - despite having the same 3 winners used for the comparison, you have House Captain at 67 where Tapie has him at 59, Showmethegin at 52 (Tapie is using 48) and Shere Calm at 88 compared to Tapie's rating of 79. Using Mike's values for the three OR's I also get 0.28s/f as below

View attachment 79422

Tapie has also got a lbs/len of 2.63 for the 6.5f races compared to your 2.65, I noticed. I'm guessing you are using the RPR conversion to obtain OR's Mike, whilst Tapie is getting different values from his datafeed. so there's no mistake in the method, it's just down to using different data.

(Considering I actually came on here to post my daily stuff an hour ago and got caught up in wondering where the sums were going wrong, perhaps I'd better get back in my box!)

Dave
I do not want to sow discord on the contrary, I try to make my figures in my own way according to your remarks
 

davejb

Mare
Hi @tapie93
it's okay, we aren't arguing, I learned this stuff off Mike @TheBluesBrother myself so we're unlikely to disagree on anything significant - I simply got interested in why your figures were different to Mike's, and it took me longer than it should have to spot the ORs were quite different to each other's. I didn't want you to sit there wondering what was incorrect about the adjcomp figures. If you want to match Mike's figures you'll need to get the ORs to match - if you are happy with the OR's then you won't need to puzzle over why your allowance is different.

Dave
 
Low grade fayre from yesterday's two meetings, the only highlight being Lisp's romp at Plumpton.

LISP, a very useful hurdler who showed on his chase debut he's equally as effective in this sphere, didn't have to improve to win an uncompetitive event with a good deal in hand. His main rival disappointed but he remains the type to win a decent handicap in due course.

Lisp.PNG

Yesterday's Top NH speed figures:
021219Table.png

021219.png



Mike.
 
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davejb

Mare
To assign ratings to runners behind the winner:
1) Add or subtract 1pt per lb for the difference in weight carried from 9-0 (flat) or 11-0 (jumps) as the winner's rating is already adjusted to this weight. So if the winner in a race were rated at 82, and the second were carrying 8-12 and the third carried 9-1 then the second horse would be rated 80 and the third rated 83 initially. This is in effect saying how each horse would have been rated had they dead heated at the line. Of course they didn't all dead heat so we now deduct points depending on how far they were beaten by.

2) Now adjust for the distance beaten - the figure used for each race is in your speed ratings table, it is the lbs/length figure - this value tells you how many pts to deduct for the 2nd, 3rd, 4th etc based on how far they were behind the winner. For example, using the figures I used in (1) above, suppose the second horse was 1/2l behind the winner, and the third finished 3l further back, and it had been your first race at Marseille-Vivaux above... the lbs/length used is 1.61 lbs per length, so the second who was rated at 80 in step 1 now has 1.61 x 0.5 = 0.85 pts deducted for being beaten half a length, = 80 = 0.85 = 79.15 which we round to a final rating of 79. The third horse was beaten 1/2l + 3l = 3.5l multiply this by 1.61 to get = 5.68 to deduct from his rating from (1) = 83 - 5.68 = 77.32 rounded to 77. So the first three in our imaginary race are rated 82, 79, 77.

For those of us with access to the Racing Post as subscribers there is a tool on the site that allows you to type in a rating for the winner, a value for the lbs per length, and it calculates 'My Rating' figures for all the runners, you can see that Mike makes some use of this. Similar options apply for users of Raceform Update, and I would not be surprised if you had similar on a French racing website somewhere.

Dave
 
Very unusual to have an impressive winner pop up at Southwell, that changed when Katpoli hacked up topping the NH speed figures on the day.

KATPOLI finished just behind Vado Forte on his chasing debut last time (also seasonal return), but easily reversed that for here, eventually going into a clear lead. This looked impressive, even though his jumping wasn't always fluent, but the handicapper is likely to hit him hard for the success, so he might need a bit more to follow up. He holds an entry at Sandown on Friday.

Lomu is one for the notebook from last night's meeting at Wolverhampton shaving 0.06s off the track record, topping the AW speed figures on the day, this was down to Tapeta surface riding extremely quick at 0.47s/f.

LOMU had been largely disappointing in his previous starts this year, but a change of stable seems to have done him good. He was well handicapped on last year's best and bounced back in style, picking up well in the straight and drawing clear in the closing stages to break the course record. A quick reappearance might be in order.

Yesterday's top NH speed figures:
031219Table.png

031219.png

Mike.
 
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