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Compiling Speed figures.

We all use different standard times (and methods of compiling them) which in itself will prompt different figures. Beyond that, however, still not everyone incorporates weight carried, ability or added yardage into their figures, which is impossible to justify.
 
hello forum, I have a simple question to ask you: I take back all the times of each French race as well as the field, should I take the 25 best times where the simple record of the track?

Thank you for your reply and good evening
 

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The 1:00 at Southwell yesterday certainly had me scratching my head by the performance of Glance Back on ground I would have described as "dead".
This horse has suddenly improved so much I even had to recheck the winning time with my stopwatch, he won this race in a canter earning the top speed figure of 104 on the day.

GLANCE BACK, well held over 2m on his recent reappearance, had been dropped 2lb and that spin had clearly blown the cobwebs away as he was a different horse this time, moving well throughout and galloping on strongly as his rivals fell away. He'll have more on once the handicapper has had his say, however.

Update: Top speed confirms my findings allocating a speed figure of 102 for Glance Back.

GB.PNG

Yeaterday's top NH speed figures:
261119table.png

261119.png

Mike.
 
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Billy Bronco should win again. He wasn't hard fit yesterday though he did look well. It was always between the front two on looks as the others just didn't look right though to be fair connections would not want to be winning a 0-115 off their marks.

Roxyfet was there to win, had won the race in 2015, and bumped into one. Maxed Out King looked a million dollars and it is evident that the Smith horses are 100% now. Ive seen a few in last week and this week and they look in much better shape than they have all season. She may well have some well handicapped horses on her hands.
 
tapie93 tapie93


thank you very much Thebluesbrother, I suspected that we had to take the best 25 times record but now it’s the OR scores , I think that in French races it’s the handicap value*2.2, is that correct?

thanks again for your help
 
thanks for the file, how do you update them so that I continue to use your time table?

I’ll update it myself, but how?

Thank you very much for your help.
 
thank you very much Thebluesbrother, I suspected that we had to take the best 25 times record but now it’s the OR scores

Forget about the "Z scores" use the excel sheet and fill in the times, the sheet will calculate the 15th percentile for you this is what I use.

thanks for the file, how do you update them so that I continue to use your time table?

You will have to work this out yourself.

Mike.
 
Frodon's ratings, the ones I've worked out rather than Mike's, tell a similar story - his last 6 runs (most recent first) have been 110 (Saturday), 127,141, 148, 140,124 - he's a good horse but I think his edge is jumping rather than speed, and he couldn't live with the two principles on Saturday who simply went too fast for him. Probably the same with Ballyoptic, last 6 figs 101, 112, 132, 83, 98, 124 - both horses that can dominate a race and put up a good figure if allowed to race in their comfort zone, but struggling against high class pacier rivals perhaps. (Forest Bihan at Haydock highlighted for me that Frodon's jumping is his strong point rather than pace).

Haydock going stick for Saturday was 4.9 hurdles/5.0 chases, yet Topspeed ratings were based on the chase going being 0.75 s/f slow with the hurdles at 0.45. If you check the seconds per furlong slower than standard time figures and put the races in order of sluggishness you get:

0.43, 0.60, 0.65, 0.74, 0.85, 0.95, 1.10 - the chase values are in bold, now to me that sequence looks like it doesn't need fiddling with - how do the RP justify saying that the races in bold 'deserved' to be rated more leniently, as the going was slower for chases than hurdles? It's poppycock, if the chase course going was noticeably slower then the chase times per furlong would all be at the bottom end of the line with the 3 hurdle races fastest. There were no rail moves by the way.

Lostintranslation, without the benefit of a dodgy allowance, earned a 110. None of the TS chase ratings from Haydock bear any degree of scrutiny in my opinion. That doesn't mean the chasers ran poorly, the fancied runners won the better races, but they didn't do it all that quickly.

Lostintranslation's OR was 161, Bristol De Mai 170, Frodon 169, Ballyoptic 159 yet off level weights they pretty near finished in the reverse order of their OR's, you have to figure that Frodon and Ballyoptic ran below the ratings by a considerable amount, Frodon was rated 8 lbs better but got beaten 26.5l. Ballyoptic rated 2lb inferior ended up 43.5l behind the winner - Bristol De Mai ran a bit below his rating or Lostintranslation increased his (this is the view I expect the handicapper will be taking).

I agree with Mike, the figures they wax lyrical over are only high because they made them high by artificially inflating them. Having done that to get the 'right' sort of figure for lostintranslation they had to slap a similarly inflated value on all the chasers, including Crievehill.

Dave
Hi davejb davejb
Most of what you say here is interesting but difficult to understand unless you fully comprehend the maths behind it, one thing that puzzles me though is why you say "yet off level weights they pretty much finished in reverse order" yet while the finishing distances were extreme they finished in a correct order according to their ratings other than the winner, i'm of the opinion that this is due to handicappers finding it difficult to assess novice chasers etc. My best guess with this is that most horses improve as they get a little older or experienced up to about nine yr old and when BRISTOL DE MAI won this race in 2017 he was rated 160, For what it's worth my view of speed ratings is that yes they are of some value when
analysing form but only to a certain degree, i say this in part because earlier this year i recall watching a horse called ORNATE who having won over 5f southwell a straight run on sand put in two different set of times ie 57sec (std) followed by over 60secs (std to slow) so 3 sec strikes me as being significant over 5f but if we put this down to difference with the surface or a horse simply not running to his mark ? the relevance being if these variations can be so great over this c/d how hard must it be to properly calculate the numbers over 3 miles with many different types of going.
A complicated subject davejb davejb but i look forward to your answer.
 
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Forget about the "Z scores" use the excel sheet and fill in the times, the sheet will calculate the 15th percentile for you this is what I use.



You will have to work this out yourself.

Mike.

thanks again but how does the rating "OR" calculate?
I think it’s value handicap*2.2, can you confirm that?
example: VH = 45*2.2 OR = 99

thank you very much, I will give an example sheet of 27/11/2019 at fontainebleau to see if I understood
 
thanks again but how does the rating "OR" calculate?

Sorry, I do not understand what you are asking, the official ratings "OR" are compiled by the BHA handicappers.

I think it’s value handicap*2.2, can you confirm that?example: VH = 45*2.2 OR = 99

You do not use 2.2 to calculate OR's, I knew I should not have put up the calculating "Z Scores" as it has totally confused you, this was only an exercise in statistics on what is possible.

Mike.
 
I think these are the values that I have surrounded in blue on the image that I don’t understand and I don’t know where to look for them.
the day is that of the 22/11/19 at saint cloud but I think the figures are not right.
 

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thanks again but how does the rating "OR" calculate?
I think it’s value handicap*2.2, can you confirm that?
The BHA handicappers give an OR that is expressed in pounds.
The FG handicappers give a VH that is expressed in kilograms.
Mike shows calculations that are based in pounds.
1 kg = 2.2046 lbs, so divide Mike's OR by 2.2046 to get the VH.

Ray
 
I think these are the values that I have surrounded in blue on the image that I don’t understand and I don’t know where to look for them.
the day is that of the 22/11/19 at saint cloud but I think the figures are not right.

here is my calculation in the second picture, am I on the right track?
 

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what about my speed figures?
Does it make me weird to have huge gaps?
I'm not the best person to ask about speed figures, but I assume you're asking about your figures for Saint-Cloud on the 22/11/2019. The going (état du terrain) was given as very heavy (très lourd) and the rails move (lice) was 22 metres. So I imagine that these factors would have produced big differences in the times recorded for each race. Also, if you look at the Réduction km. time in the Paris-Turf results, you will notice that the races with low or no speed figures also had the slowest Réduction km. times. Perhaps that's an explanation for the gaps you're talking about.

Ray
 
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