Compiling Speed figures.

[TheBluesBrother]

also ran

Don't be fooled by the idea that calculating going allowances on the AW is easier, just look at range that you could find.

AW going allowance table:
Fast +0.50s/f
Stand/Fast +0.18s/f to +0.40s/f
Standard -0.15s/f to +0.15s/f
Stand/Slow -0.48s/f to -0.18s/f
Slow -0.70s/f to -0.50s/f

Turf going allowance table:
Firm +0.55s/f to +0.63s/f
Good/firm +0.20s/f to +0.53s/f
Good -0.25s/f to +0.18s/f
Good/soft -0.55s/f to -0.28s/f
Soft -1.00s/f to -0.58s/f
Heavy -1.58s/f to -1.03s/f

I publish a daily list of every going allowance for England, Ireland, France and the UAE.
Look at column "H", you find a copy of the going allowance tables in the notepad file.

http://tinyurl.com/lad34ps

Mike.

 

[also ran]

Hi all

Thanks @The BluesBrothers for your excel spreads a lot of work on your part and thanks for sharing, I see that you only do the winners of the race on these spread , do you also do the other runners in the race ?
I have watched your video and found it very interesting , something for me to think about , glad I have a good few months before I start , give me time to think the way I should go
I still would like to have a part of my private handicap that uses the built up part my dad use to use as its the part that will help accessing races
going to wait to books I have ordered turn up along with some past years form book results and do some research , I will keep this post up to date on what way I go
for the time being thanks to everyone who as responded to my post and good luck to you all

mick

I will do an introduction of myself soon in the well introduction part of forum soon

 

[TheBluesBrother]

also ran

Yes I do the speed figures for every runner in a race, using the rating tool in the members area of the Racing Post.

With regards to the video on going allowances this is only a basic method, I have a lot more variables in my toolbox which
I can use, the major one being experience, for example at Perth this week the chase course was riding at least +0.25s/f faster
then the hurdles course so you end up with 2 going allowances.

 

[also ran]

Hi All

yes TheBluesBrother you have opened my eyes to getting the going allowances right how they can effect your speed rating , just being a little out even over a short trip could Easley be a matter of being out by 5 lengths
a big margin to be out by.
just waiting for all my books to arrive now , get my head down and do some research

mick

 

[also ran]

Hi all

well first booked as arrived and quickly read , the one by David Dickinson , thought it was the same David Dickinson that did the antiques programs lol , might as well as been in some cases ,
I did pick up on one or two things in the book , seems he builds up the handicap figures in not a to dissimilar way to my dad , but my dad did not just pluck up a figure of 60 for a seller winner at Beverley
because it looked like a decent race to start and most seller winners are rated 60, my dad used the speed ratings , it did remind me how thought betting 2yo's can be , with such form reversals , but I wont be betting any odds on, I am a value man.
anyway found that this book was not going to help me a lot and to be honest don't think its a very good book , no surprises there.
I have over the last 2 days been looking up the results over the last 3 years on the racing post website , of races over 5,6,7 furlong races , races that I will be betting on, still in the very early stages at the moment , will take a month or so to come to any conclusions I think if any , To do my handicap I will have to make my own speed figures up , If after all the studying over the next month or so I feel I cannot do so with any accuracy I will not continue.
as I see it now the main problem is the going allowance , I can see a good ball park figure for different goings with TheBluesBrother chart and way he calculates them on the days results , but feel its something I need to do myself
anyway still plenty of studying to do , I will get back with my results and decision soon.

Thanks
mick

 

[TheBluesBrother]

also ran

I did mention that the David Dickinson book was one of the worst I have every read on the subject of "how to compile your own handicap."

With regards to accuracy, especially calculating going allowances, this takes time and experience, for example I spent at least 45 minutes
working on the going allowance for Leopardstown on Saturday.

During the past couple of weeks, there have been many meetings where I ended up with 2 going allowances, like at the leger meeting at Doncaster
where on Saturday the straight course was riding at +0.27s/f (good to firm) and the round course I had at 0.00s/f (good), you won't find any
books to teach you how to do that.

Mike.

 

[also ran]

Thanks TheBluesBrother , I did read you thought that way about the book and I can see why now , I realise its not going to be easy for me to come up with a formula
and that experience and there will be lots of trial and error , weather I keep it going long enough if I don't see any results that will have to be seen , but I am here to give it a bash
and as I said I have months to come up with something of my own , was wondering what your thoughts about the Turftrax going stick were , ie do you think it does a good job in determining
the going and do you consider at all in your calculations

thanks
mick

 

[TheBluesBrother]

also ran

I wouldn't look at the Turftrax going stick reports or take any notice of any official going descriptions if somebody paid me.

In my experience the only clerk of the course in the country who does his job properly is Jimmy Stevenson at Leicester.

 

[felixsylvestris]

Came across this forum much by chance and knew I had to join. I've recently become interested in compiling speed figures and am making my way through Mordin, looking for any other books on the subject if anyone has any suggestions?

Big thank you to Blues Brother, the man is a genius, couldn't get my head around going allowances til I stumbled across this site. The figures I was producing were far too high, but think I have everything in order now.

Anyway, hoping someone could shed some light on an issue I'm having. I'm looking to compile figures for Dundalk, already have the lbs per length and standard times - yet again BIG thank you TheBluesBrother ... The problem I'm having is working out class allowances, and classes of race in general as class system is different here in Ireland (?) or maybe just not printed... e.g in British racing the class is printed on the form.. Wondering if I should do this by rating maxes of races e.g races for 60-80 rated horses, or by prize money offered?

Any help would be great lads

Cheers,

Peter.

(First post of many I hope)

 

[TheBluesBrother]

felixsylvestris

Hi Peter, welcome to the forum.
Working out the class of a race using prize money just wouldn't work.
I had the same problem when using the class of a race to calculate the going allowances in France for example,
so what I used to do was use the Racing Post Ratings which are freely available, and then convert then to a BHA
equivalent official rating.

BHA Pars:
G1-120
G2-113
G3-109
LST-104
C2-92
C3-86
C4-77
C5-68
C6-58
C7-49

The pars and RPR conversion were taken from 33,600 races...

 

[felixsylvestris]

Thank you so much for that! Plan on rating all races from January of this year, will see if any interesting stats emerge and be sure to post them up here. There's a site I'm keen on for 2-yo stats (gives half way positions as well some great notes, as well as a mountain of information on runs and trainers), just wondering if anyone else uses it or thinks it's useful? http://b2yor.co.uk/b2yor_2014_season.htm

Maybe could help figuring front runners and hold up types?

Peter

 

[also ran]

Hi all

Ok thanks TheBluesBrother ,
felixsylvestris thanks for posting a link to the 2yo site , looks very interesting , think it will help me next year when i hopefully start my 2yo private handicap , you may have read in my previous posts that my dad use to do he's own
many years ago and had quite a good success in doing so , i am hoping to learn as i go and come up with some results myself , will be mainly using speed figures in doing so but any other info will also help
anyway will be interesting to see how it goes , i of course post my findings and race suggestions on forum in due course , hope you may do the same come next year

all the best
mick

 

[felixsylvestris]

also ran , I'm in the process of compiling all the data on the site into an excel file. Gives great info, include trainer's first time out ratings as well as the calibre of horses they run, and the time of year each trainer really gets firing. Should have everything together for next season, and could (hopefully) provide some nice pointers for those at more generous odds!

Peter

 

[felixsylvestris]

TheBluesBrother

Had a look at your video on going allowances. Wondering if it makes sense to calc. going allowance by averaging figure taken by minusing lbs per length from time difference/furlongs (for example (1.42-3.99)/6f) for all races, then following your method of averaging OR against your three best speed rating, adding the difference into the going allowance you have calculated?, as this has taken my average speed figure much closer to the OR. It was 9 below it before I tried this, now have it down to 4 below.

So for example from Hamilton 22/09/14:

Going Allowances:______SRs:____OR:
-0.08______________________79
0.10_______________________65
-0.23________________68_____70
-0.17________________73_____50 (should I remove?)
0.25________________72_____76
-0.28______________________ 79
-0.29______________________59
-0.16______________________55

-0.16_______________71_____67
(took out 2 fastest and 2
slowest and averaged the rest)
I then add the in the difference (.04) achieved by sutracting 71-67 and add this to my previous going allowance (-0.16) to end up with this

G.A:___SRs:__OR:
-0.12___47____79
______62____65
______68____70
______73____50
______72____76
______58____79
______58____59
______64____55

___avg: 63___67


Any thoughts on this anyone?

 

[TheBluesBrother]

felixsylvestris

The video on the going allowance calculation is only basic, when you have 2 going allowances at any racecourse
you have too learn how to look out for this, for example on Leger day at Doncaster on the straight course I had
the going allowance at +0.27s/f (good to firm), and on the round course 0.00s/f (good).

Looking at the Hamilton 22/9/2014, on the day I had the going at +0.24s/f (good to firm)

 

[GDP]

I have a basic video on youtube which explains how I use excel.

For these actual files and a years worth going allowances and speed figures, unhide column "N" to view raw ratings.

 http://tinyurl.com/lad34ps

Hello Mike,
When I look at your speed figures
I notice that you compare your speed figures
with the OR assigned AFTER the race
(I compare with the OR assigned for the race;
data copied from Geny.com).
Can you please explain why
(because that sometimes creates major differences)?
Many thanks in advance.
Regards,
GDP

 

[felixsylvestris]

Good to firm ay?

Hmm I must have a look at my calculations again, no idea how I came out on the slow side of good.

Also, once again, you're a gent, TBB.

Cheers!

 

[TheBluesBrother]

G GDP

The main reason I look at and use the official ratings, this helps me determine the class and pace of any race.
When I am compiling my speed figures I always start at 0.00s/f per furlong, and if I have a horse that
has an official rating of 60 and the speed figure is 86 before any going allowance adjustment, straight away
the +0.28 (or 28) difference tells me that the going is around good to firm.

Using my method, I could see when working on the speed figures for Enghien (FR) yesterday, the hurdles course was a lot
quicker than the chase course.

 

[TheBluesBrother]

For the new guys to the forum, here are my speed figures for today 25.09.14 produced by Pika pika
as daily race cards.

 

[felixsylvestris]

G GDP

The main reason I look at and use the official ratings, this helps me determine the class and pace of any race.
When I am compiling my speed figures I always start at 0.00s/f per furlong, and if I have a horse that
has an official rating of 60 and the speed figure is 86 before any going allowance adjustment, straight away
the +0.28 (or 28) difference tells me that the going is around good to firm.

Using my method, I could see when working on the speed figures for Enghien (FR) yesterday, the hurdles course was a lot
quicker than the chase course.

I've been making this far more complicated than it needed to be. New motto: keep it simple! Cheers TBB, genius! will put up a spreadsheet soon see if anyone has any thoughts or if there are any ideas they like they are more than welcome to use

Peter