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Compiling Speed figures.

Those that pointed out the mistake also very slow coming forward (Timeform) ttt
Timeform are now timing the races from when they cross the start line, when Jim McGrath was in charge the timing started when the tapes
went up, he and Graham Cunningham both agreed at the Cheltenham festival that the timing should start when the tapes go up, this confirmed
what I always suspected, that Jim McGrath is an arrogant twit.

Then Racing Post have been timing the NH races from when they cross the start line since April 2nd 2013...
 

waxy

Filly
TheBluesBrother TheBluesBrother ,excellent post,I must admit to being guilty in my youth of trying to compile speed ratings,and now feel a mug for using the sporting papers standard times(all that time without thinking about the starting point):lol:
 

twmills

Filly
Is anyone else having trouble accessing TheBluesBrother's going allowances, up till the other day all was well and now when I try to get them I get a not found on this server message. Has the BluesBrother stopped them.
 

Ferdy

Colt
I did start to do speed figures purely for the AW tracks a couple of years ago and had some Excel sheets to help the calcs, but then the Sporting Life site changed the way they presented the results and I lost heart. Might have another go next AW season if my present method of rating does not cheer up.
 

waxy

Filly
I am very interested in the new Tapeta surface at Wolverhampton,and I hope TheBluesBrother TheBluesBrother ,will guide us through the establishment of new standard times,etc,when it starts off latter in the summer.
 

twmills

Filly
I have a basic video on youtube which explains how I use excel.


For these actual files and a years worth going allowances and speed figures, unhide column "N" to view raw ratings.

Code:
 http://tinyurl.com/lad34ps
Hi BB can you please tell me on the spreadsheet, and I hope this is not a silly question what is the row headed COMP. Thanks.
 
twmills twmills

If you look at the 2.10 Pontefract yesterday won by Bimbo, she won the race is time of 1m 17.37s (slow by 2.77s).

RP standard time for 6f at Pontefract is 1m 14.60s, so the race was run in a time of 2.77s above the standard time (slow),
so you would see the figure 2.77 in the COMP column.

COMP = Time comparison (above or below the standard time or slow or fast).
 
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GDP

Yearling
The lbs per length which I devised for each course and distance can be obtained from my standard time list (see below) along with the furlong distances to use.

I have highlighted the use of the lbs per calculation (Distance adjustment) below.

So in this example, the lbs per length calculation for 5f trip at the Curragh is 3.37, if a horse had run instead over 6f you would adjust the distance and use 2.82 lbs per length (See Standard times list).

In this example I used Dave Edwards "Top Speed" going allowance as an example, when I compile my own speed ratings I use my own going allowances

Here is an example how I rated the 2yo "Dawn Approach" over 5f trip at the Curragh on Sunday 25th March.

One thing to note is that I do not use Weight For Age in my calcuations, you can if you want.

1. The going time for the race was +6.93s above standard.
2. The going allowance was -0.9s/f per furlong (the yeiding going was slowing the horses down).
3. I use .2 secs per length.

Now for the calculation:

multiply 5 furlongs by the going allowance i.e. -0.9

5 x -0.9 = -4.50s

As the race was run +6.93s outside standard subtract the updated going allowance correction i.e -4.50s. (note that if the going allwance was +4.50s you will have to add the going correction)

+6.93-4.50 = +2.43s.

Now divide the corrected going allowance of +2.43 by .2 secs per length.

2.43 /.2 = 12.15 lengths.

multipy the lengths by the lbs. per length calculation which is 3.37 lbs per length for 5f trip at the Curragh.

12.15 x 3.37 = 40.94

now subtract the figure 40.94 from 100.

100-40.94 = 59.06 or rounded down 59.

As Dawn Approach carried 9st 5lb we now have to adjust the speed figure of 59.
For weight carried over 9st adjust the figure for the rating i.e.

59 + 5lb = 64 ( this is Dawn Approach speed figure).

So if Dawn Approach had carried 8-11 we would have had to subtract 3lb from his speed figure i.e.

59 - 3lbs = 56.

Once you have arrived at any horses speed figure you could add the Weight for age allowance, I don't because it corrupts the ratings.

Compiling speed ratings is easy :minigun:

Dawn Approach ended up as my highest rated 2yo with a speed figure of 102
The lbs per length which I devised for each course and distance can be obtained from my standard time list (see below) along with the furlong distances to use.

I have highlighted the use of the lbs per calculation (Distance adjustment) below.

So in this example, the lbs per length calculation for 5f trip at the Curragh is 3.37, if a horse had run instead over 6f you would adjust the distance and use 2.82 lbs per length (See Standard times list).

In this example I used Dave Edwards "Top Speed" going allowance as an example, when I compile my own speed ratings I use my own going allowances

Here is an example how I rated the 2yo "Dawn Approach" over 5f trip at the Curragh on Sunday 25th March.

One thing to note is that I do not use Weight For Age in my calcuations, you can if you want.

1. The going time for the race was +6.93s above standard.
2. The going allowance was -0.9s/f per furlong (the yeiding going was slowing the horses down).
3. I use .2 secs per length.

Now for the calculation:

multiply 5 furlongs by the going allowance i.e. -0.9

5 x -0.9 = -4.50s

As the race was run +6.93s outside standard subtract the updated going allowance correction i.e -4.50s. (note that if the going allwance was +4.50s you will have to add the going correction)

+6.93-4.50 = +2.43s.

Now divide the corrected going allowance of +2.43 by .2 secs per length.

2.43 /.2 = 12.15 lengths.

multipy the lengths by the lbs. per length calculation which is 3.37 lbs per length for 5f trip at the Curragh.

12.15 x 3.37 = 40.94

now subtract the figure 40.94 from 100.

100-40.94 = 59.06 or rounded down 59.

As Dawn Approach carried 9st 5lb we now have to adjust the speed figure of 59.
For weight carried over 9st adjust the figure for the rating i.e.

59 + 5lb = 64 ( this is Dawn Approach speed figure).

So if Dawn Approach had carried 8-11 we would have had to subtract 3lb from his speed figure i.e.

59 - 3lbs = 56.

Once you have arrived at any horses speed figure you could add the Weight for age allowance, I don't because it corrupts the ratings.

Compiling speed ratings is easy :minigun:

Dawn Approach ended up as my highest rated 2yo with a speed figure of 102
 

also ran

Yearling
Hi All

Hope you don't mind , I came across this forum doing a search for speed figure ratings on the net , I hope don't bore you all now , let me just give a few details about myself and why I was doing such a search.

I have been brought up as a kid with horse racing playing a major part of my life .
the early years, it all started many moons ago early 70's , being a kid I used to follow my dad down the bookies and stand outside while he was in there punting away and I thought nothing of it
think it was when I was about 11 the bug would get me , I used to get a small amount of pocket money I would get the sun and back there horse and dog tips and now and then back a winner.
now to why I did the search , I would have been 12 or 13 if memory serves , my dad started getting a book from the local newsagents call the form book I used to have to go and get it , it came out every week
it would have all the past results in it so would get bigger and bigger each week , my dad would enter the race results into another book , he's black book , what I found out to be he's private handicap book.
now for the first year or so this would be the case every week , I did not pay much attention to what he did , I would if having a bet just do the suns tips or my own fancy's.
But a few years down the line my dad would start tipping up some winners , so much so all of a sudden every night he would stay up updating he's book , he would have 3 or 4 people come around the house
even how own doctor would come around to get he's tips for the next days racing.
So now I was very interested in seeing what he did , I would look over he's shoulder while he did he's book and ask some questions , but my dad was a very secretive man he did not give much away not even to me as a kid
so I did not find out all that I wanted to know , my dad died when I was 16 so I did not pick up all of what he did and how he did it .
But the things I do know , he came up with a lot of winners and managed to bank all the winnings so I know he made a profit , first of all he only did 2.y.o races on the flat , I know this is thought with danger when a horse can improve 20 pound
or more after just one run , but my dad told me that they cheat less with 2 year olds than other horses as they are still learning to run and would be less likely to stop start them.
and over the sticks well you have already guessed it 3.y.o novice hurdles.
he used to write down the first 6 in each race then used to have 2 columns one where he would write the speed figure as given by this form book , it was not the official rating but the race speed figure I take it that it was done by them
using a similar process as TheBluesBrother uses , think the racing post may still publish this at the bottom of the race results well did when I last looked about 3 years ago.
but its the next column I need some help with , as I did try my own private handicap about 15 years ago , this is the built up column , its knowing when to use this column and when not that's the real key I think
for example say horse A = was rated 70 on he's last and only run and he beats horse B today by 1 length that was rated 80 on he's last and only run , but todays rating were as follows A 65 , B 61 , my dad in some cases would
have in built up column A 84 , B 80 so horse A built up figure is 84 , was wondering if anyone can give an insight into this or any thoughts ?
There seems to me a right time and a wrong time to used this column , but I know it does give good results , just wished my dad told me more about the way he used it.
I am thinking about starting my private handicap system again next year with the 2.y.o but think its going to be a few years down the line till I get it right.

I will post in other parts of the forum other systems I have used and read about over the 40 or so years I have been betting.

just to ad a bit to the above , my dad used to bet small amounts of money around £10 being a maximum bet for him , I think a level stake system would be best for me to try
the reason I am re-thinking of starting it again is that things have changed since 15 years ago when I tried and I did get quite a few winners then , is that the odds are better now with betfair about betting 101% overbroke rather than years ago 110-120% and you can back place only with them rather than the tote not having a clue and them taking 25-30% , all these will help.
ohh and as for the stop starting of horses if you don't think this happens think again I know 100% it does as I have in the past had this info , very nice when you do ,
and I will leave you with a couple of quotes

Lester Piggott , when finishing 2nd in a race once said " il'e beat the one in front next time but I don't know about the ones behind me"

Barney Curley , when asked what chance as a punter in a betting office got " no chance what so ever"



Thanks mick
 
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also ran also ran

Hi Mick,

Wanting to start up your own handicap, reminds me of one of the worst books I ever read on the subject by David Dickinson called "How To Compile Your Own Handicap"
published by Raceform, David is now one of the BHA's official handicappers.

One of the major pitfalls to compiling your own handicap or speed figures is understanding and calculating the daily going allowances, some days the official going descriptions are not even close
and without this knowledge you cannot see whether or not the going was speeding up or slowing the horses down.

If I was to start up my own handicap from scratch I would join Horseracebase.com, where you will find all the tools you would need to start you off, atomise your handicap calculations, you don't want
to end up like me, spending up to 5 hours each day compiling speed figures.

Mike.
 
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sootywooty

Gelding
Hi also ran also ran! Yep i found that to be a major problem! Using the right going allowances when i use to compile ratings based on speed figures from the old RFHB which is mayb is what your Dad used for his ratings.

I dont use speed ratings now, but when i did i only used them as a guide to my form reading and the class of a race i was checking, like with a group one races around 80 and then on a decreasing scale downwards according to the class of the race.

Also i use follow the weather f/c of the course to see the weather patterns over the past few days as well, and then used intelligent judgements based on that data, and of course the expected weather on the day of the race.

Their are ways of winning outside 2yos btw! although LP and BC have much talent, they dont really need to analyse the factors say as a pro punter or a good semi pro would.

Welcome to the forum btw!

All the best, Paul.
 

Chesham

Sire
Sprint Handicapping Explained by Jim Adams is worth a read

It sounds like the 3rd Column that your Dad used was a Class Rating
 

also ran

Yearling
Thanks for the 3 quick replies , TheBluesBrothers thanks for your comments , first of all I have just ordered that book well £3 on ebay worth a look , I don't buy books on systems as a rule as why write a book about a winning system
but like to see other peoples angles on things , I will read your calculations carefully and see if they will fit in for what I am trying , had a look and joined site Horseracebase.com , to be honest and everything I say is with total honesty
don't see the point of waffling ,people only suss you out , I don't think theres going to be anything on that site for me . I see that you do your calculations / book / reference using a excel database , I might look into that aspect might work for me rather than a large ruled book , will see. I don't mind spending 5 hours a day as long as it gets some results at the end , I am looking into putting a kitty up and betting with that at a level stake , not to sure if this will be just win or win and sometimes place only
I don't like place betting really as with jockeys dropping there hands or giving up once passed but with 2yo might be slightly different I will see.
you mention about the going allowances not even being close some days , well this seems very scary when relying on speed ratings for betting , I know little about this , thought this day and age it would be nigh on spot on , but you seem to have more knowledge about this reading your post which is not going to help digging out a winner that's for sure.
I am not here for any tips , but just a matter of curiosity and save me reading any other of your posts and I know nothing about you at all, I take it you do get some good results with the hours you put in
I know that digging out winners is not a 5 minute job , as I said my dad use to spend all night studying and that was just for a few 2yo races the next day.
as it happens I do have a 5 minute system I used if having a bet in a betting office when with mates I will post that up on systems soon , but I need a racing post to explain as long as all the info is still in there
ain't looked at a racing post for over 2 years now.

Thanks sootywooty , I can see using the right going allowances is going to be a major factor , but I know the built up figure is very important as well , think maybe its going to be trial and error for the first few years maybe
as long as I aint gone skint by then , back in my dads day I take it that the going allowances could have been even further off , looking on the net I see raceform still do a weekly book with speed ratings at the bottom I might look into this
. one good thing I am in no rush I have till march now , think I might buy a few used flat year results books off ebay to look through , I used to get the last years one every year
Their are ways of winning outside 2yos btw yes I realise that everyone to there own , I used to have little systems for handicap races , will post in systems soon
and I did in the past have a bit of success on the A/W as well , I liked to back an all weather horse that ran well on the A/W then went turf did no good then returned to A/W with the same or less O/R.

Thanks Chesham , I will search that book now , I don't think the class of a race as been about long ie class 6 seller class 4 mnd stks etc , try and do a little like the book looked below

edit just ordered that book as well another £3 , thanks

1104 Doncaster 5f mnd stks good colts
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- sf .... built up
789 MUSIC BOY , lead from start always going well quickend clear ff ....... 76 ..... 90
508 STROLLER , dwelt stalls , went 2nd after 2f always held by winner..... 70 ..... 84
671 JOE BLOGS , 2nd to 3f out never going pace of front 2 eased ff ........... 50 .....

dist 1 1/2 lenths , 5 lenths

Thanks
mick
 
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sootywooty

Gelding
Hi Again also ran also ran! Their was no AW racing when i backed horses for a living btw! and mayb SF will work much better on their i dont no, i just use basic form myself and some systems on their at the moment, mayb a few more can give some more in depth ideas into speed ratings for the AW, the sufaces are certaintly more constant for a start.

All the best, Paul.
 

also ran

Yearling
Hi all

Thanks sootywooty , I can see what you mean surly the rating would be more reliable on the A/W being that the going would be more consistent , maybe worth a look
but I was going to just stay with turf racing and leave the A/W alone , but I will have another think about that now

thanks
mick
 
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