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Compiling Speed figures.

tomowenevans

Yearling
The said horse wouldn't be 5lbs better off, he has gone up in class by 5lbs, if his speed figure is 80 this is what he carries forward, I don't adjust.

Regarding the ratings to odds here is an old excel sheet.

Mike.

Thanks for the reply and clearing that up for me and thanks for the excel, I'll have a little play around with it and see how I get on.

Cheers, Tom
 

davejb

Stallion
tomowenevans tomowenevans
Regarding the 5lb better off question:

So last time out, let's say in a class 4, I rated him 80 when he carried 9-5
As he carried 9-5 and I rate against a standard of 9-0 for flat and 11-0 for jumps, then that rating of 80 would have equated to a 75 for the time he took to get to the finish, (so either winner time if he won that race, of winner time adjusted for distance beaten by the winner) and that would have then had 5 added to make it up to 80 because he carried 5lb over the 9-0 standard.

That horse now comes back out carrying 9-0.... which is standard weight, so there is nothing to add or subtract to/from the 80 'base' figure I have for that horse. If he carried 8-12 today I'd add 2 points to rate him 82, he is an 80 rated horse with a 2lb advantage today. If he carried 9-5 today I'd knock him down to 75 for today's race.... he'd be an 80 rated horse now carrying 5lb extra.

Think of it the horse is an xx rated horse being penalised or helped by the weight difference relative to 9-0. That last bit is the important bit, it's always relative to 9-0

The class issue need not be factored in at all, the ratings take care of it as the weight carried will vary with the handicap class, and you adjust the final rating by reference to the weight carried. For further consideration, however, is that a rise in class can often be a factor that makes it harder to win, and vice versa with a class drop, so when you look at your ratings and see the top rated a little clear but 'enjoying' a weight drop due to a class rise for today's race, then you might like to say to yourself 'is 5lb less weight to carry sufficient assistance to allow him to score at this higher class?'

A bit like extra/less weight can also be viewed as a lot more complex an issue that simply adding 1pt per lb as we do with the ratings - I suspect it's a lot harder to carry large weights as the ground gets boggier (rather obvious in fact) so a rating earned a while back on good going might be viewed as a bit less than cast iron when the horse reappears carrying 11-7 at Sedgefield on heavy going. Lot's of nuance in this game..... and nobody knows the exact answer to anything.

Dave
 

tomowenevans

Yearling
tomowenevans tomowenevans
Regarding the 5lb better off question:

So last time out, let's say in a class 4, I rated him 80 when he carried 9-5
As he carried 9-5 and I rate against a standard of 9-0 for flat and 11-0 for jumps, then that rating of 80 would have equated to a 75 for the time he took to get to the finish, (so either winner time if he won that race, of winner time adjusted for distance beaten by the winner) and that would have then had 5 added to make it up to 80 because he carried 5lb over the 9-0 standard.

That horse now comes back out carrying 9-0.... which is standard weight, so there is nothing to add or subtract to/from the 80 'base' figure I have for that horse. If he carried 8-12 today I'd add 2 points to rate him 82, he is an 80 rated horse with a 2lb advantage today. If he carried 9-5 today I'd knock him down to 75 for today's race.... he'd be an 80 rated horse now carrying 5lb extra.

Think of it the horse is an xx rated horse being penalised or helped by the weight difference relative to 9-0. That last bit is the important bit, it's always relative to 9-0

The class issue need not be factored in at all, the ratings take care of it as the weight carried will vary with the handicap class, and you adjust the final rating by reference to the weight carried. For further consideration, however, is that a rise in class can often be a factor that makes it harder to win, and vice versa with a class drop, so when you look at your ratings and see the top rated a little clear but 'enjoying' a weight drop due to a class rise for today's race, then you might like to say to yourself 'is 5lb less weight to carry sufficient assistance to allow him to score at this higher class?'

A bit like extra/less weight can also be viewed as a lot more complex an issue that simply adding 1pt per lb as we do with the ratings - I suspect it's a lot harder to carry large weights as the ground gets boggier (rather obvious in fact) so a rating earned a while back on good going might be viewed as a bit less than cast iron when the horse reappears carrying 11-7 at Sedgefield on heavy going. Lot's of nuance in this game..... and nobody knows the exact answer to anything.

Dave

Hi davejb davejb ,

Again, thank you for the reply.

So unlike Mike you do actually adjust figures for the days racing. So you subtract the amount of lbs over 9st that the horse is carrying today from the figure that it run last time out, unless they are carrying under 9st and you will then add the amount to the figure?

Thanks mate,

Tom
 
Very strange.
Deauville Nov 5th 2021
SNORKELING won the 7th race
Winning Time 87,61s
Standard RP is 85,80s > + 1,81s
Ground Slow by 0,15s
RP T.S is 58
If i use TheBluesBrother TheBluesBrother system AW 9st i have 65
1,81+1,125 = 2,935 / 0,2 = 14,7*2,33 = 66 - 1 = 65

Why the difference is so important considering we get the same stantard and same GA ?
 

davejb

Stallion
tomowenevans tomowenevans
That's correct, weight greater than 9-0 causes the rating for today to be lower, and weight below 9-0 causes the rating to be inflated. The assumption in the ratings is that a 100 rated horse carrying 9-0 on good ground will complete the race in standard time. If we say 'this is an 80 rated horse' we're kind of omitting some of the critical info - ie we ought to be saying 'this is an 80 rated horse when he carries 9-0 on good ground' - we change that 80 depending on the difference they carried from 9-0, and we adjust the rating for the going by means of the going allowance... that way ALL runners in the race are being compared on a level playing field.

I suspect Mike was intending to say that he wasn't changing the rating of that horse on the day because he was at 9-0 and therefore no weight adjustment needed to be made, but it might be that he doesn't adjust for weight on the day..... if so then it's something we do differently to each other.

Dave
 
Top Speed uses WFA (weight for age) and I do not, the problem here is, there is no WFA allowance for a 3yo (Nov 5th) over 7.5f.
I can not see why the TS figures are minus 6/7lbs.

View attachment 108591

Mike.
I may have found the explanation on the web :
TOP SPEED Formula For Flat Races: 100-W + wfa – 22(1100C/D + 5G)
SNORKELING DIST 7,5f
87,61 +1,81
Ground Slow 0,15s / f > 1,125 s
1,81 + 1,125 = 2,935 >

"Topspeed ratings are adjusted to 5 furlongs or 1,100 yards. This means we multiply 1,100 by the Comparison to Standard Time"

(2,935 / 7,5)* 5 = 1,96s
"1 second at 5f equals 22 pounds"
>>> 100-1 + 2 WFA - (22 x 1,96) = 57,9
What do you think about this formula TheBluesBrother TheBluesBrother ?

Thanks
 

tomowenevans

Yearling
tomowenevans tomowenevans
That's correct, weight greater than 9-0 causes the rating for today to be lower, and weight below 9-0 causes the rating to be inflated. The assumption in the ratings is that a 100 rated horse carrying 9-0 on good ground will complete the race in standard time. If we say 'this is an 80 rated horse' we're kind of omitting some of the critical info - ie we ought to be saying 'this is an 80 rated horse when he carries 9-0 on good ground' - we change that 80 depending on the difference they carried from 9-0, and we adjust the rating for the going by means of the going allowance... that way ALL runners in the race are being compared on a level playing field.

I suspect Mike was intending to say that he wasn't changing the rating of that horse on the day because he was at 9-0 and therefore no weight adjustment needed to be made, but it might be that he doesn't adjust for weight on the day..... if so then it's something we do differently to each other.

Dave

Perfect.

Thanks again davejb davejb
 
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