• Hi Guest, The forum will be moving hosts on 26 July and as such will be closed from Midday until the move has completed.
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Compiling Speed figures.

mick

Sire
This is all down to O Outlander standard times, I cannot stress how bad some of the RP Irish standard times are, you have RP flat standards times which are 10.0s out, Dave Edwards will not change anything.
No disrespect intended to O Outlander but as i recall you and davejb davejb have both previously made mention of RP discrepancies Re race distances and other time related matters. I know they are now owned at arms length by the Bookmakers but publishing disinformation takes this to another level.!
 
O Outlander you make an interesting comment Re most of your top rates being well found in the market in someways this confirms the finding but can also negate the value. I am guessing that this problem is in part due to the rating coming from a recent run.? How far back are you prepared to go for a speed based rating and still feel confident about its worth and relevance for today's race.
To be honest the ratings I have on the flat now do not account for weight , I have done months worth of tests and they outperform weighted ratings using the same standards and going allowance calculations , so although I was against no weight ratings I'm now converted, I include all ratings in my calculations from the last 12 runs and all runs in my database going back to 2017, however I have formulas to decay ratings for time since rating and runs since rating so that all my ratings are not biased to old form, this is the best way I've found that suits me and most efficiently has winners closer to the top of my ratings, I also have class ratings on the same scale and after finding they were a slightly better predictor than th espresso ratings with lightly rated horses I developied formulas to create a hybrid speed/class rating to account for this to run alongside the speed ratings, it's still very much a work in progress but after tinkering for over a year and never being happy with anything I now think I have something of value, but it's still not the road to untold riches just a decent guide that I can trust , I'm currently trying to use filters to highlight the best bets from the ratings because you can't back in 40 races a day every day and I'm keen on being more selective with my bets.
 
No disrespect intended to O Outlander but as i recall you and davejb davejb have both previously made mention of RP discrepancies Re race distances and other time related matters. I know they are now owned at arms length by the Bookmakers but publishing disinformation takes this to another level.!
It's not really disinformation as such, it's very hard to get accurate data and good standards so he probably is doing it to the best of his ability as it's up to a point a subjective excercise, different speed figures compilers will have different methods and interpretations even if they use the same standard times, it's just as much am art as a science, and topspeed may very well be working in best faith to produce things as accurately as he sees it .
 

davejb

Mare
Dave Edwards isn't a young man obviously, and after a while juggling figures can become a bit tedious. I'd imagine when he looks at the 'standard times' (some courses have ridiculously long lists of such) he just sees a mountain to climb and simply can't face the prospect of redoing it all.
It's bad enough on the flat, imagine redoing all the NH tracks - it's all very well collecting all the times from umpty ump races at each track over x years, but then what do you do about the races where three fences were omitted and the like, never mind a rail move of 300 yds!

Compiling standards is not something I would relish, I think it's something you'd need to put a small team onto to split the workload....not just to save time, but to avoid chronic depression!
Dave
 
O Outlander

Did you ever tackle the standard times for Downpatrick? every time they race it over different distances.

View attachment 87217

Mike.
CD CodeyardsfurlongsconfSTANDARD
Downpatrick-National Hunt-3805-Hurdle-
3805​
17.30​
Hurdle
245.65​
Downpatrick-National Hunt-3840-Hurdle-
3840​
17.45​
Hurdle
248.08​
Downpatrick-National Hunt-3912-Hurdle-
3912​
17.78​
Hurdle
253.09​
Downpatrick-National Hunt-3960-Hurdle-
3960​
18.00​
Hurdle
256.44​
Downpatrick-National Hunt-4010-Hurdle-
4010​
18.23​
Hurdle
259.93​
Downpatrick-National Hunt-4070-Hurdle-
4070​
18.50​
Hurdle
264.12​
Downpatrick-National Hunt-4125-Hurdle-
4125​
18.75​
Hurdle
267.97​
Downpatrick-National Hunt-4680-Hurdle-
4680​
21.27​
Hurdle
307.16​
Downpatrick-National Hunt-4720-Hurdle-
4720​
21.45​
Hurdle
310.00​
Downpatrick-National Hunt-4730-Hurdle-
4730​
21.50​
Hurdle
310.72​
Downpatrick-National Hunt-4780-Hurdle-
4780​
21.73​
Hurdle
314.28​
Downpatrick-National Hunt-4785-Hurdle-
4785​
21.75​
Hurdle
314.64​
Downpatrick-National Hunt-4790-Hurdle-
4790​
21.77​
Hurdle
314.99​
Downpatrick-National Hunt-4800-Hurdle-
4800​
21.82​
Hurdle
315.71​
Downpatrick-National Hunt-4840-Hurdle-
4840​
22.00​
Hurdle
318.56​
Downpatrick-National Hunt-4940-Hurdle-
4940​
22.45​
Hurdle
325.72​
Downpatrick-National Hunt-4950-Hurdle-
4950​
22.50​
Hurdle
326.44​
Downpatrick-National Hunt-5060-Hurdle-
5060​
23.00​
Hurdle
334.33​
Downpatrick-National Hunt-3805-H Flat-
3805​
17.30​
H Flat
238.34​
Downpatrick-National Hunt-3840-H Flat-
3840​
17.45​
H Flat
240.69​
Downpatrick-National Hunt-3905-H Flat-
3905​
17.75​
H Flat
245.08​
Downpatrick-National Hunt-3912-H Flat-
3912​
17.78​
H Flat
245.55​
Downpatrick-National Hunt-3960-H Flat-
3960​
18.00​
H Flat
248.80​
Downpatrick-National Hunt-4070-H Flat-
4070​
18.50​
H Flat
256.25​
Downpatrick-National Hunt-4125-H Flat-
4125​
18.75​
H Flat
259.99​
Downpatrick-National Hunt-3740-Chase-
3740​
17.00​
Chase
250.51​
Downpatrick-National Hunt-3905-Chase-
3905​
17.75​
Chase
262.71​
Downpatrick-National Hunt-4070-Chase-
4070​
18.50​
Chase
274.91​
Downpatrick-National Hunt-4235-Chase-
4235​
19.25​
Chase
287.09​
Downpatrick-National Hunt-4730-Chase-
4730​
21.50​
Chase
323.57​
Downpatrick-National Hunt-4870-Chase-
4870​
22.14​
Chase
333.88​
Downpatrick-National Hunt-5060-Chase-
5060​
23.00​
Chase
347.85​
Downpatrick-National Hunt-5160-Chase-
5160​
23.45​
Chase
355.19​
Downpatrick-National Hunt-5170-Chase-
5170​
23.50​
Chase
355.93​
Downpatrick-National Hunt-6280-Chase-
6280​
28.55​
Chase
437.22​
 
O Outlander

Help need some of your standard times here...

Another day another nightmare trying to make some something useful from Ballinrobe's new race distances.
Just looking at the RP standard times for Ballinrobe the list is so long you would need a guide dog to help you through it.
It's all right for Top Speed he will just make up his speed figures, after working on the meeting for over an hour this is what I ended up with.

Ballinrobe.png

Mike.
 
O Outlander

Help need some of your standard times here...

Another day another nightmare trying to make some something useful from Ballinrobe's new race distances.
Just looking at the RP standard times for Ballinrobe the list is so long you would need a guide dog to help you through it.
It's all right for Top Speed he will just make up his speed figures, after working on the meeting for over an hour this is what I ended up with.

View attachment 87246

Mike.
not sure it stops the problem of having a long list of standards , but here are mine 60 odd different distances since 2016-17
CD CodeyardsfurlongsconfSTANDARD
Ballinrobe-National Hunt-3740-Chase-
3740​
17.00​
Chase
251.41​
Ballinrobe-National Hunt-4180-Chase-
4180​
19.00​
Chase
282.60​
Ballinrobe-National Hunt-4290-Chase-
4290​
19.50​
Chase
290.57​
Ballinrobe-National Hunt-5060-Chase-
5060​
23.00​
Chase
348.27​
Ballinrobe-National Hunt-3558-H Flat-
3558​
16.17​
H Flat
224.80​
Ballinrobe-National Hunt-3559-H Flat-
3559​
16.18​
H Flat
224.86​
Ballinrobe-National Hunt-3571-H Flat-
3571​
16.23​
H Flat
225.62​
Ballinrobe-National Hunt-3581-H Flat-
3581​
16.28​
H Flat
226.25​
Ballinrobe-National Hunt-3584-H Flat-
3584​
16.29​
H Flat
226.44​
Ballinrobe-National Hunt-3595-H Flat-
3595​
16.34​
H Flat
227.14​
Ballinrobe-National Hunt-3610-H Flat-
3610​
16.41​
H Flat
228.10​
Ballinrobe-National Hunt-3627-H Flat-
3627​
16.49​
H Flat
229.18​
Ballinrobe-National Hunt-3630-H Flat-
3630​
16.50​
H Flat
229.37​
Ballinrobe-National Hunt-3700-H Flat-
3700​
16.82​
H Flat
233.87​
Ballinrobe-National Hunt-3761-H Flat-
3761​
17.10​
H Flat
237.82​
Ballinrobe-National Hunt-3790-H Flat-
3790​
17.23​
H Flat
239.72​
Ballinrobe-National Hunt-3810-H Flat-
3810​
17.32​
H Flat
241.03​
Ballinrobe-National Hunt-3838-H Flat-
3838​
17.45​
H Flat
242.87​
Ballinrobe-National Hunt-3861-H Flat-
3861​
17.55​
H Flat
244.39​
Ballinrobe-National Hunt-3882-H Flat-
3882​
17.65​
H Flat
245.79​
Ballinrobe-National Hunt-3890-H Flat-
3890​
17.68​
H Flat
246.32​
Ballinrobe-National Hunt-3926-H Flat-
3926​
17.85​
H Flat
248.72​
Ballinrobe-National Hunt-3559-Hurdle-
3559​
16.18​
Hurdle
231.83​
Ballinrobe-National Hunt-3570-Hurdle-
3570​
16.23​
Hurdle
232.55​
Ballinrobe-National Hunt-3571-Hurdle-
3571​
16.23​
Hurdle
232.61​
Ballinrobe-National Hunt-3581-Hurdle-
3581​
16.28​
Hurdle
233.27​
Ballinrobe-National Hunt-3584-Hurdle-
3584​
16.29​
Hurdle
233.46​
Ballinrobe-National Hunt-3610-Hurdle-
3610​
16.41​
Hurdle
235.17​
Ballinrobe-National Hunt-3627-Hurdle-
3627​
16.49​
Hurdle
236.28​
Ballinrobe-National Hunt-3630-Hurdle-
3630​
16.50​
Hurdle
236.48​
Ballinrobe-National Hunt-3700-Hurdle-
3700​
16.82​
Hurdle
241.11​
Ballinrobe-National Hunt-3761-Hurdle-
3761​
17.10​
Hurdle
245.19​
Ballinrobe-National Hunt-3790-Hurdle-
3790​
17.23​
Hurdle
247.15​
Ballinrobe-National Hunt-3810-Hurdle-
3810​
17.32​
Hurdle
248.50​
Ballinrobe-National Hunt-3838-Hurdle-
3838​
17.45​
Hurdle
250.40​
Ballinrobe-National Hunt-3861-Hurdle-
3861​
17.55​
Hurdle
251.97​
Ballinrobe-National Hunt-3882-Hurdle-
3882​
17.65​
Hurdle
253.40​
Ballinrobe-National Hunt-3890-Hurdle-
3890​
17.68​
Hurdle
253.95​
Ballinrobe-National Hunt-3926-Hurdle-
3926​
17.85​
Hurdle
256.43​
Ballinrobe-National Hunt-3986-Hurdle-
3986​
18.12​
Hurdle
260.58​
Ballinrobe-National Hunt-4044-Hurdle-
4044​
18.38​
Hurdle
264.63​
Ballinrobe-National Hunt-4400-Hurdle-
4400​
20.00​
Hurdle
290.27​
Ballinrobe-National Hunt-4412-Hurdle-
4412​
20.05​
Hurdle
291.15​
Ballinrobe-National Hunt-4449-Hurdle-
4449​
20.22​
Hurdle
293.90​
Ballinrobe-National Hunt-4471-Hurdle-
4471​
20.32​
Hurdle
295.54​
Ballinrobe-National Hunt-4511-Hurdle-
4511​
20.50​
Hurdle
298.53​
Ballinrobe-National Hunt-4550-Hurdle-
4550​
20.68​
Hurdle
301.46​
Ballinrobe-National Hunt-4698-Hurdle-
4698​
21.35​
Hurdle
312.74​
Ballinrobe-National Hunt-4724-Hurdle-
4724​
21.47​
Hurdle
314.75​
Ballinrobe-National Hunt-4732-Hurdle-
4732​
21.51​
Hurdle
315.36​
Ballinrobe-National Hunt-4765-Hurdle-
4765​
21.66​
Hurdle
317.92​
Ballinrobe-National Hunt-4783-Hurdle-
4783​
21.74​
Hurdle
319.32​
Ballinrobe-National Hunt-4792-Hurdle-
4792​
21.78​
Hurdle
320.02​
Ballinrobe-National Hunt-4840-Hurdle-
4840​
22.00​
Hurdle
323.78​
Ballinrobe-National Hunt-4847-Hurdle-
4847​
22.03​
Hurdle
324.33​
Ballinrobe-National Hunt-4850-Hurdle-
4850​
22.05​
Hurdle
324.56​
Ballinrobe-National Hunt-4879-Hurdle-
4879​
22.18​
Hurdle
326.84​
Ballinrobe-National Hunt-4905-Hurdle-
4905​
22.30​
Hurdle
328.90​
Ballinrobe-National Hunt-4937-Hurdle-
4937​
22.44​
Hurdle
331.43​
Ballinrobe-National Hunt-5210-Hurdle-
5210​
23.68​
Hurdle
353.52​
Ballinrobe-National Hunt-5500-Hurdle-
5500​
25.00​
Hurdle
377.82​
Ballinrobe-National Hunt-5518-Hurdle-
5518​
25.08​
Hurdle
379.36​
Ballinrobe-National Hunt-5587-Hurdle-
5587​
25.40​
Hurdle
385.29​

my figures yesterday did seem to make sense using my standards I had the going 0.12 s/f slow (GOOD)
race_dateracetimetrackhorse_nameYardsRatingconfGA
10/08/2020​
16:40:00​
BallinrobeLittle Brother (IRE)
3581​
120​
Hurdle
12​
10/08/2020​
17:10:00​
BallinrobeUncle Henry (IRE)
3581​
107​
Hurdle
12​
10/08/2020​
17:45:00​
BallinrobeHeliers Bay (IRE)
3581​
107​
Hurdle
12​
10/08/2020​
18:15:00​
BallinrobeBreezy Bell (GER)
3581​
86​
Hurdle
12​
10/08/2020​
18:45:00​
BallinrobeDrifting Back (IRE)
4905​
108​
Hurdle
12​
10/08/2020​
19:15:00​
BallinrobeWinsor Vixen (IRE)
4905​
73​
Hurdle
12​
10/08/2020​
19:45:00​
BallinrobeBrogine (IRE)
5587​
117​
Hurdle
12​
10/08/2020​
20:15:00​
BallinrobeMars Harper
3581​
77​
H Flat
12​
 
O Outlander

Thanks for Ballinrobe standard times, as usual they are spot on I couldn't fault them.
I ran the speed figures using your standards and it fixed the going allowance of 0.11s/f I had to use originally for the long-distance hurdles.

View attachment 87249

Mike.
That’s good to hear someone with your experience thinks i‘m on the right track, I have been happy with my jumps standards since I developed a system of using quadratic trendline from my adjusted data. Do you find it takes less time not having to account for possible RP errors?
 
Last edited:
Do you find it takes less time not having to account for possible RP errors?
It's so much quicker using your standards, all you need to know is the distance in furlongs, select your standard time from the list and divide this into 200 to get the lbs per length and away you go.

Example

16.18f Ballinrobe hurdles standard time 231.83s
200/231.83s = 0.86lbs per length.

Mike.
 
So incompetent is the RP, just recently I incorporated a safeguard into speed figure compiling which points out any standard time changes or in the case of the RP any faux pas's.

I hadn't been working long on yesterday's Haydock card when I had my first WTF moment, yesterday they raced on the inner course but it looks like the RP standard times used for the 1.55, 2.25,4.55 & 5.30 were for the outer course.

For example, there were 4 7f races, 3 races returned had the correct inner course standard times except the 4.55.

4.25.PNG
4.55.PNG

Mike.
 
Last edited:
There was an outstanding performance up at Perth yesterday in the 4:30 in the shape of Petrastar who ran his rivals ragged to win by 21 lengths.

Note the 2 going allowances.

PETRASTAR, 2-2 as a hurdler and for this stable (plus in a tongue-tie), was up around 4f in distance and won easily again, even after taking quite a hold early on. A useful maiden on the Flat, he's turned the corner since going over obstacles and is an above-average novice for this time of year.

perth.png


Has a couple of entries this week.
Petra.PNG

110820.png

Mike.
 
I decided to have an early look at today's card at Gowran park after witnessing what Springbank achieved destroying his handicap mark in the 2:00 by a big chunk, which I had at +23lbs on what he has achieved so far, what the Irish Handicapper will make of this performance will be interesting.

SPRINGBANK was fitted with first-time blinkers here and they certainly worked in terms of waking him up. The two leaders did not hang about, he asserted before the turn into the straight and it became abundantly clear soon enough that he was not stopping. He was possibly more in command at the line than at any other point. To sustain this gallop in the manner he did was impressive, and this evidence suggests he could be well capable of stepping up to stakes level before the end of the year.

Gowran.png


Mike.
 
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