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Big Odds Winners

"Of the 14,129 individual racehorses to race on the Flat or AW in 2023, 5076 recorded a race victory — that's 35.9% of all runners becoming a winner this season. It’s a tough game to find good horses!"

Interesting fact from the analysis article posted above.
 
I've done a spreadsheet showing the Top 100 Trainers (based on prize money won so far in 2024) - it shows no. of runs 2024, no. of wins 2024, win strike rate 2024, no. of places 2024, places strike rate 2024, prize money won 2024, VDW 2024 (just based on prize money divided by no. of wins to show class of race), £1 stake (return from £1 bet on all that trainers horses), then % Win Return from last 60 days, % Win Return from last 365 days, then the same set of stats as the 1st lot for 2024, but for the last 5 years... (ALL FIGURES FROM RACING POST)

There's a few trainers that are a bit smaller than I thought, and some that are a lot bigger than I thought, but mostly, the top trainers are who I thought, I just need to include a few others.

Only two trainers show a profit over 5 years (Charles Hills and Jack Channon) - as I suspected, there isn't really any trainer, owner or jockey (or other system) you can use/back all of the time and make a profit, you have to mix it up.
 

Attachments

  • Top 100 Trainers.pdf
    284.3 KB · Views: 2
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So this has re-affirmed my method/rules....

1. No Favourites. Pick several horses I like 5/1 and above and put them in accumulators.
2. Pick The Horse. Forgot the owner/jockey/trainer, and everything else.
3. Mix It Up. Don't play owner/jockey/trainer combinations, except if No.2 applies and I like the horses - if Gosden has two horses I like, put them both in, but don't pick two Gosden horses 'just because it's Gosden'.
4. Don't Forget to Play Singles. Put singles on any horses that I've picked with big odds before the racing starts, don't wait until before the off and either forget, miss it with bad timing, or have blown my stake money earlier in the day and not be able to put a single on at all, then miss a 28/1 which would have made a profit for the day.
5. (NEW) Favour 'lesser' trainers over 'top' trainers, they come in far more often than I thought, and have bigger odds, so I don't need to hit as many to get a good return.

With 2 and 3 being the most important - Pick THE HORSE, and MIX IT UP.
 
So on average how many horses do you play in any given day, looking at a standard racecard there are a lot of horses over 5-1
 
It varies really Trecelyn, it can depend on the days racing and what I've got left to stake from the day before. I won't bet that many on a poor mid-week card, but Saturday I do, or at a festival like Epsom, York, Goodwood. Monday I hit 4 big odds horses on my acca, but all of my big stakes singles were rubbish because I hedged against the horses in the acca when I should have doubled down on them, then I probably chased it a little bit late on, which you should never do, I was just frustrated I'd hit some nice odds horses in my acca but missed the singles.

I think I need to pick and aim to pick at least 8 a day so that I have a shot at the massive returns (if I don't play big 8 folds I'll never hit one), but I usually play 10-20 horses a day, probably a few too many, but I usually think "If I don't play that and it hits I'll be fuming", so I have to play it, even if the stakes are small, just so that it's covered. I usually put 12-20 horses in one bet, and I will play a £0.05 E/W 12-20 fold, but then I re-use the selections, take a few out and play an 8 fold, then repeat with different horses so that I have several 8 folds on per day. I would be better not playing as many and increasing my stakes, so that when I do hit the returns are bigger, and I'm trying to change how I play and stick to my rules more. Hopefully I'll find my sweet spot soon.

Or maybe the key is to pick 2/3/4/5 a day like you do, but play over 2/3/4 days and try to hit a big 8 fold over 2/3/4 days, that might actually be easier than hitting them all in one day. Maybe another method to test.
 
In the club i used to run there was an old soldier who used to come in everyday. He used to bet all the outsiders from the top 3 trainers at the track listed in his daily paper. Where he had multiple selections he used to perm them. I can recall him buying a round for everyone at the bar a few times when he had a bet up. He would never bet "shorties" as he called them.
 
I noticed several trainers I like and back were not in the top 100 for 2024 (so far) so I've added them to my spreadsheet (but the bottom 58 are not in rank order, I've just listed them underneath in a random order), plus a number of others (58 additional trainers in total). I think it's quite interesting to see £1 Stake Returns for last 5 years. It looks like I have been backing the right trainers, but also including some I shouldn't have, and will now focus my efforts on those that are more likely to provide a profit (obviously there's never a guarantee, I'm just trying to play the percentages).
 

Attachments

  • Top 100 Trainers 2024 (Plus 58 Others).pdf
    387.6 KB · Views: 2
Yesterday and today have been great, that trainers spreadsheet has done really well for me, I quadrupled my starting balance yesterday and I'm doing good today so far. I honestly recommend taking looking at trainer stats, not necessarily mine, but review trainer records to re-set your mind on who's worth backing and who's not worth backing. As always, there's never any guarantees, but playing the percentages on trainers over the last two days has worked well for me - there's certain trainers I won't be backing anymore, and others that I'll be following e.g. £1 stake on Phil McBride shows a profit over the last 5 years, I hadn't really noticed him before, he had two horses yesterday, one won, the other was beaten by a shorthead.
 
Thursday 13/06/2024 - RESULTS

  • Musselburgh @ 20:45 - Protest Rally 11/1 (Liam Bailey)
  • Newbury @ 13:45 - Blue Yonder 14/1 (Archie Watson)
  • Newbury @ 15:25 - Great Acclaim 7/1 (Eve Johnson Houghton)
  • Newbury @ 16:30 - Sterling Knight 18/1 (Ed Dunlop)
  • Newbury @ 17:05 - Sixties Chic 13/2 (Jack Channon)
  • Nottingham @ 16:20 - Lipsink 16/1 (Michael Appleby)
  • Nottingham @ 16:55 - Sir Benedict 8/1 (Stella Barclay)
  • Nottingham @ 17:30 - Cryptos Dream 10/1 (Tony Carroll)
  • Yarmouth @ 14:00 - Anif 12/1 (Michael Herrington)
  • Yarmouth @ 15:00 - Hidden Pearl 15/2 (John Berry)
  • Yarmouth @ 16:10 - Piper's Fort 12/1 (Archie Watson)

Friday 14/06/2024 - RESULTS

  • Chester @ 14:50 - Manila Thriller 13/2 (Jack Channon)
  • Chester @ 16:00 - Berkshire Phantom 16/1 (Fionn McSharry)
  • Chester @ 16:30 - Touchwood 9/1 (Ruth Carr)
  • Chester @ 17:10 - Native King 17/2 (Hugh Palmer)
  • Goodwood @ 18:05 - Our Papa Smurf 22/1 (Gary & Josh Moore)
  • Sandown @ 14:40 - Dividend 50/1 (Dr Newland & Jamie Insole)
  • Sandown @ 15:15 - Chasing Aphrodite 14/1 (Harry Eustace)
  • Sandown @ 15:50 - Travolta 17/2 (James Ferguson)
  • York @ 13:50 - Tolstoy 18/1 (Brian Ellison)
  • York @ 14:25 - Inconspicuous 14/1 (Ollie Pears)
  • York @ 15:35 - Havana Gila 16/1 (Harry Eustace)
  • York @ 16:10 - Ron O 28/1 (Ray Craggs)
  • York @ 16:45 - Invisible Friend 18/1 (Kevin Ryan)


Saturday 15/06/2024 - RESULTS

  • Bath @ 14:55 - Accrual 33/1 (Daniel & Claire Kubler)
  • Chester @ 14:45 - Loyal Touch 10/1 (Charlie Johnston)
  • Chester @ 16:30 - Hyperfocus 33/1 (Tim Easterby)
  • Leicester @ 21:00 - Enpassant 7/1 (J R Fanshawe)
  • Sandown @ 13:30 - Prince Eric 9/1 (James Ferguson)
  • Sandown @ 14:05 - Two Tempting 12/1 (Jonathan Portman)
  • Sandown @ 15:15 - Spanish Blaze 9/1 (Marcus Tregoning)
  • Sandown @ 15:50 - Prague 40/1 (Dylan Cunha)
  • York @ 16:10 - The Strikin Viking 8/1 (Kevin Ryan)
  • York @ 16:45 - Pisanello 18/1 (David O'Meara)


Sunday 16/06/2024 - RESULTS

  • Doncaster @ 14:40 - Snazzy Jazzy 12/1 (Seb Spencer)
  • Doncaster @ 15:10 - Wolf Of Badenoch 15/2 (Hugo Palmer)
  • Doncaster @ 16:10 - Society Lion 18/1 (Ed Dunlop)
  • Doncaster @ 16:40 - Amazing Winnie 14/1 (Kevin Ryan)
  • Doncaster @ 17:40 - Warrendale Wagyu 12/1 (John & Sean Quinn)
  • Salisbury @ 14:25 - Tres Chic 17/2 (J S Moore)
  • Thirsk @ 18:45 - Glory Hyde 20/1 (Roger Fell & Sean Murray)

Top 7
  • Brian Ellison
  • Ed Dunlop
  • Jack Channon
  • Kevin Ryan
  • Hugo Palmer
  • Archie Watson
  • Harry Eustace
 
  • Thursday Starting Balance = £12
  • Thursday End Balance = £48
  • Friday Start Balance = £48
  • Friday End Balance = £188

I thought I was on a roll.......

  • Saturday Starting Balance £128 (took £60 out)
  • Saturday End Balance £89
  • Sunday Start Balance £89
  • Sunday End Balance £23

More favourites and top trainers came in Saturday, if I didn't have George Boughey on it would have been worse. Sunday I thought the racing gods were in my favour, 3 of the top trainers over the last 5 years (based on returns from £1 stake) had two horses each, so I put all 6 in as my big bet of the day, 1 placed, noting returned, so even the trainers that are in profit over 5 years are hit and miss.
 
WEDNESDAY 19/06/2024 - PUNTS / COMBINATIONS

Billy Loughnane


14:30 - Englemere 16/1 (George Boughey)
17:05 - Eldrickjones 40/1 (Roger Fell)
17:40 - Moonspirit 25/1 (George Boughey)
18:15 - Rock N Roll Basket 33/1 (David Loughnane)

Silvestre De Sousa

17:05 - King's Code 40/1
17:40 - Azahara Palace 11/1
18:15 - Bretton Wood 100/1

I quite like King's Code 40/1 done well for me over last year, but might be better on the AW. I also quite like.....

14:30 - Betty Clover 12/1 (Eve J Houghton)
14:30 - Mighty Eriu 16/1 (Gavin Cromwell)
15:05 - Lavender Hill Mob 50/1 (Michael Bell)
15:45 - Doom 11/1 (Marquand/Haggas)
15:45 - Novus 18/1 (Gary Moore)
16:25 - Lord North 16/1 (Buick/Gosden)
16:25 - Royal Rhyme 22/1 (Clifford Lee/Karl Burke & Sheikh Obaid Maktoum)
17:05 - Metal Merchant 14/1 (Probert/Channon)
17:05 - Talis Evolvere 25/1 (Richard Hannon)
17:40 - Twirling (Ryan Moore/Simon & Ed Crisford)
17:40 - Vetiver 20/1 (Murphy/Balding)
17:40 - Ciara Pearl 40/1 (Daniel & Claire Kubler)
18:15 - Pont Neuf 15/2 (Eve J Houghton)
18:15 - Ain't Nobody 10/1 (Jamie Spencer/Kevin Ryan) - Kevin Ryan on form
18:15 - Gabaldon 16/1 (Jose D'Angelo - USA)
18:15 - Cheval De Guerre 18/1 (Eddie Kenneally - USA)

Plus AMO Racing and Shane Foley/Mrs J Harrington - and there's an obvious Eve J Houghton double there too.
Good luck all.
 
Good luck R rbtblb82

In the Hunt Cup i think the first three in the betting (Wild Tiger , Real Gain and Beshtani) all look strong but i think Thunderball (33s) , Sean (40s) and Regheeb (28s) could all go well at decent prices .
 
Yeh I've got Sean in a Saffie Osborne double, but will put a single on it too - you've got to have that one Sean (even though I usually say you shouldn't back just because of the name, I nearly always do).

I've actually gone nuts and all out at Ascot, I've covered nearly everything so hopefully there's a double or two - I've got the Yanks, I gave in and put the Irish and French on too, plus a few Jockeys, Trainers and Owners, and then several mix bets too (fingers crossed).
 
Day One Royal Ascot = Down
Day Two Royal Ascot = Evens
Day Three Royal Ascot = Down

I could do with a being up today. I have had a few nice wins, and a lot of places, plus Ryan Moore and Oisin Murphy doubles, but both fairly short prices so not that big on the returns.

My best/closest bet so far was yesterday, I got 6 out 7 on one of my 7-folds, Whistlejacket short priced favourite in the 1st race ruined it.

There were several comments on ITV yesterday about the bookies getting a beating over the last few days, so I think there'll be less short priced winners today, the bookies will be paying jockeys to lose today 🙄
 
FRIDAY 21/06/2024 - PUNTS

  • 14:30 @ Royal Ascot- 2yro race - no favourites so far this week, so favourite could be due, but makes more sense to go for big odds
    • Royalty Bay 20/1 (John Quinn/Jason Hart) - cost a lot of money, has potential
    • Liberalised 22/1 (K R Burke) - been on form and done well at Ascot so far
    • Jayvee 22/1 (Brian Ellison) - on fire atm
    • Burning Pine 25/1 (Wesley Ward - USA rubbish so far and could do with a win
    • Hot Darling 25/1 (S De Sousa) - French rubbish so far and could do with a win

  • 15:05 @ Royal Ascot- 3yro race - full of good horses/good form, bit of a lottery if the favourite doesn't win it
    • Givemethebeatboys 9/1 (S Foley/J Harrington) - stable mate 4th Tuesday @ 33/1
    • Pandora's Gift 9/1 (Stuart Williams) - lesser trainer punt
    • Evade 11/1 (Oisin Murphy/Australian horse)
    • Kind Of Blue (D Muscutt/J Fanshawe) - good combination
    • Pocklington 28/1 (Geoff Oldroyd) - lesser trainer punt

  • 15:45 @ Royal Ascot - 3yro race - Coronation Stakes 7f
    • One of the 1st three in market should win
    • Folgaria 33/1 (Hollie Doyle/M Botti) - only horse worth a punt I think

  • 16:25 @ Royal Ascot - Duke of Edinburgh Stakes 1m 3f - pretty open if the W P Mullins favourite doesn't win
    • Bague D'or 10/1 (D Muscutt/James Ferguson) - good combination, obvious double with Kind of Blue 15:05
    • Fairbanks 12/1 (Oisin Muprhy/A Balding) - good horse on it's day
    • Ziggy 12/1 (T Marquand/H Esutace) - trainer on the up
    • Sea King 18/1 (L Morris/Sir M Prescott) - yard on form
    • Marhaba The Champ 20/1 (R Ryan/K Ryan) - trainer on form, good for big odds wins at big meets

  • 17:05 @ Royal Ascot- 3yro race - Sandringham Stakes 1m - lottery
    • Cat Ninja 12/1 (K Shoemark/J & T Gosden) - double with Fairbanks 16:25
    • Arisaig 12/1 (J Spencer/C Johnston) - Spencer rode a winner Wednesday, Johnston looking for a win, good form
    • Fair Angellica 14/1 (Finley Marsh/Richard Hughes) - good combination and form
    • Battle Queen 18/1 (H Turner/A Balding) - Hayley Turner good for a big odds winner at festivals
    • Asian Daze 20/1 (B Coen/J P Murtagh) - Irish raider
    • Shin Jidai 20/1 (S De Sousa/R Varian) - good combination, top trainer looking for a win

  • 17:40 @ Royal Ascot- 3yro race - King Edward VII Stakes 1m 3f - looks open
    • Voyage 9/1 (P Dobbs/R Hannon) - stable mates good form
    • Calandagan 11/1 (S Pasquier/F Henri-Fraffard) - French raider, looking for a win
    • Theory Of Tides 11/1 (K Shoemark/J & T Gosden) - good combination and form
    • Harper's Ferry (25/1 (T Marquand/E Walker) - good combination, trainer on form
    • Royal Supremacy 33/1 (Oisin Muprhy/A Baldinbg) - champion jockey elect, rude not to back at 33/1

  • 18:15 @ Royal Ascot- 3yro race - Palace Of Holyrood House Stakes 5f - looks open
    • Jubilee Walk 5/1 (Oisin Murphy/James Ferguson) - obvious double with Royal Supremacy 17:40
    • Vantheman (T Eaves/K Ryan) - trainer on form and good for big odds at big meets
    • Dyrholaey 10/1 (J Doyle/A Watson) - Wathnan Racing investing loads into racing, bought a bunch of good horses and yard and jockey doing well this week so far
    • Woodhay Wonder 14/1 (T Marquand/T Ward) - top fancy, I think this horse will win this race
    • No Half Measures 40/1 (G Rooke/R Hughes) - trainer on form

Hopefully I get a bit of luck and get a good win or two, need it.
 
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FRIDAY 21/06/2024 - PUNTS

  • 14:30 @ Royal Ascot- 2yro race - no favourites so far this week, so favourite could be due, but makes more sense to go for big odds
    • Royalty Bay 20/1 (John Quinn/Jason Hart) - cost a lot of money, has potential
    • Liberalised 22/1 (K R Burke) - been on form and done well at Ascot so far
    • Jayvee 22/1 (Brian Ellison) - on fire atm
    • Burning Pine 25/1 (Wesley Ward - USA rubbish so far and could do with a win
    • Hot Darling 25/1 (S De Sousa) - French rubbish so far and could do with a win

  • 15:05 @ Royal Ascot- 3yro race - full of good horses/good form, bit of a lottery if the favourite doesn't win it
    • Givemethebeatboys 9/1 (S Foley/J Harrington) - stable mate 4th Tuesday @ 33/1
    • Pandora's Gift 9/1 (Stuart Williams) - lesser trainer punt
    • Evade 11/1 (Oisin Murphy/Australian horse)
    • Kind Of Blue (D Muscutt/J Fanshawe) - good combination
    • Pocklington 28/1 (Geoff Oldroyd) - lesser trainer punt

  • 15:45 @ Royal Ascot - 3yro race - Coronation Stakes 7f
    • One of the 1st three in market should win
    • Folgaria 33/1 (Hollie Doyle/M Botti) - only horse worth a punt I think

  • 16:25 @ Royal Ascot - Duke of Edinburgh Stakes 1m 3f - pretty open if the W P Mullins favourite doesn't win
    • Bague D'or 10/1 (D Muscutt/James Ferguson) - good combination, obvious double with Kind of Blue 15:05
    • Fairbanks 12/1 (Oisin Muprhy/A Balding) - good horse on it's day
    • Ziggy 12/1 (T Marquand/H Esutace) - trainer on the up
    • Sea King 18/1 (L Morris/Sir M Prescott) - yard on form
    • Marhaba The Champ 20/1 (R Ryan/K Ryan) - trainer on form, good for big odds wins at big meets

  • 17:05 @ Royal Ascot- 3yro race - Sandringham Stakes 1m - lottery
    • Cat Ninja 12/1 (K Shoemark/J & T Gosden) - double with Fairbanks 16:25
    • Arisaig 12/1 (J Spencer/C Johnston) - Spencer rode a winner Wednesday, Johnston looking for a win, good form
    • Fair Angellica 14/1 (Finley Marsh/Richard Hughes) - good combination and form
    • Battle Queen 18/1 (H Turner/A Balding) - Hayley Turner good for a big odds winner at festivals
    • Asian Daze 20/1 (B Coen/J P Murtagh) - Irish raider
    • Shin Jidai 20/1 (S De Sousa/R Varian) - good combination, top trainer looking for a win

  • 17:40 @ Royal Ascot- 3yro race - King Edward VII Stakes 1m 3f - looks open
    • Voyage 9/1 (P Dobbs/R Hannon) - stable mates good form
    • Calandagan 11/1 (S Pasquier/F Henri-Fraffard) - French raider, looking for a win
    • Theory Of Tides 11/1 (K Shoemark/J & T Gosden) - good combination and form
    • Harper's Ferry (25/1 (T Marquand/E Walker) - good combination, trainer on form
    • Royal Supremacy 33/1 (Oisin Muprhy/A Baldinbg) - champion jockey elect, rude not to back at 33/1

  • 18:15 @ Royal Ascot- 3yro race - Palace Of Holyrood House Stakes 5f - looks open
    • Jubilee Walk 5/1 (Oisin Murphy/James Ferguson) - obvious double with Royal Supremacy 17:40
    • Vantheman (T Eaves/K Ryan) - trainer on form and good for big odds at big meets
    • Dyrholaey 10/1 (J Doyle/A Watson) - Wathnan Racing investing loads into racing, bought a bunch of good horses and yard and jockey doing well this week so far
    • Woodhay Wonder 14/1 (T Marquand/T Ward) - top fancy, I think this horse will win this race
    • No Half Measures 40/1 (G Rooke/R Hughes) - trainer on form

Hopefully I get a bit of luck and get a good win or two, need it.
Well done with Calandagan, the last race played to your method in regards the odds of the placed horses, almost got the dream result with No Half Measures and Woodhay Wonder
 
Royal Ascot was good for the racing, I really enjoyed it, bit disappointing betting wise, I was down overall, but not as bad as it was looking at the end of Wednesday. I had a few nice winners and a load of places, but it was quite hard to pick some of the winners, some of the the others were quite obvious (with hindsight, you just don't expect the favourite to win the handicaps with big fields).

I'm going to update my spreadsheet after Ascot, just to see how some stats have been affected. And I might have a quiet couple of weeks betting wise, and go big at the July festival.
 
I think one of the mistakes you have said is go quiet for couple weeks then have big bets at festival as racing dosnt work that way.
You have to bet when the race is right for you and we dont know that till day comes, You cant let some strong fancies go then bet when meetings come round you have to bet when time is right and that can be any day.
 
Oh aye, if there's anything I like I'll be having a flutter, and even if I don't bet I'll review the cards every night and check the results so I know who's on form etc., it's what I like doing (whilst my housemate watches the boring/depressing soap operas).

It's just that I prefer throwing more money at the big festivals as you get good horses with big odds running, yes, there's big fields and it's harder to pick, but when you get that bit of luck at the big festival the returns are so much bigger e.g. if I'd have had that 80/1 Billy Loughnane horse (who I usually always back) it would have been a fair better week for me (just one horse can make all the difference at the big festivals).
 
Yep but betting jockeys we know dosnt work either take billy loughnane he had 12/1 winner after that 80/1 winner yet betting him this season alone would still show loss.
The only way you can show profit is either a system that works yearly or form study which i do and be selective.
 
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