formtheory said:
Hi everyone,
I have been looking at the Best/next best method that V.D.W mentioned but did not give much information about.
I feel it has something to do with " if you want to know where the bus is going ask the driver"
I have spotted that Travado ran in the same races 2 years earlier!
Very interesting!
Tomorrow 2:30 Beverly, York Glory has been trained the same way as he trained last years 2nd Masamaah, have a look.
Does anyone know more about this method?
This was an email that I sent to a chum in 2009
I have been aware that some of the selection that VDW included in the Jock Bingham book had a Deja Vu element. (Of course there will be stronger reasons why they would be bets for VDW )
Travado
Peterborough Chase (Class A) Grade 1993
LTO Race = Plymouth Gin Haldon Gold Challenge Cup Chase
Peterborough Chase (Class A) Grade 2 21/11/95
LTO Race Plymouth Gin Haldon Gold Challenge Cup Chase
Ever Smile
Philip Barnard Memorial Conditional Jockeys´ Handicap Hurdle 1993 finished 5th
Philip Barnard Memorial Conditional Jockeys´ Handicap Hurdle (Class E) 1996 won
Valiant warrior
« 2:30 » Newcastle Building Society Handicap Chase (Class B)
(Class 2) (0-140, 5yo+) 2m4f Good To Soft 16 fences 18th Feb 1995 finished 2nd
« 3:00 » Newcastle Building Society Handicap Chase (Class B)
(Class 2) (0-140, 5yo+) 2m4f Good To Soft 14 fences 2 omitted, 1996 won
Trainers are by and large creatures of habit and follow similar paths year in and year out.
1) Some know the best races for certain horses as they have trained their relatives (Breeding and confirmation)
2) some target the same race if they have the right horse for that race. If its a handicap they wil try and hide the the true handicap mark.
3) This is where the concept comes in, some trainers will try a horse out in the race and then return in the future and try to win the race with the same horse.
This week I watched a horse called Hoh Hoh Hoh (I did not back it though) as I thought the trainer was out to win based on last year. Apart from the High speed rating over Sandowns 5f last year and I could not see any VDW reason, other than the SP odds. The Cammidge was won by the favourite.
Last year, Hoh Hoh Hoh ran in the Cammidge Trophy and then dropped in Class to contest the same race at Nottingham on wednesday. Came 2nd that year.
This Year
Ran in the Cammidge Trophy Listed Race, March 28th 2009 well out of his Class range especially at 6f. (His best speed figures are at 5f) Watch the race on ATR and see him try to keep pace with these runners. Eventually you will him reach his collapse point and fade back through the Fileld. The trainer has entered him in a race that he has no intention of winning 25/1
On Wednesday, was dropped well down in class and back to 5f and the same race that he came second in last year and wins 11/2
Guest provided the following on the Gummy Forum, Prominent King also fits the same trainer pattern.
1. Prominent King was not a maiden having won 2 races in 1976 namely a maiden hurdle worth 1,041 pounds at Naas in January followed by the 2,497 Scalp Hurdle at Leopardstown the following month. This gives a rating of 17 or 18 rounded up if you prefer. His other run that season was a fast finishing 3rd in the 9,591 Triumph Hurdle at Cheltenham when favourite.
2. His best run the following season was his last when 4th in the 1977 Erins Food Chamion Hurdle over the same course , etc.
3. His high handicap mark was due to his best runs and achievments prior to his 1978 seasonal debut over 2m 4f.
4. Finishing 2nd to Credit Card first time out in 78 was not enough to suggest great things were forthcoming. The presence of the 3rd horse was encouraging though.
5. Of even more interest was his next run in a handicap with 12-7. It was a big ask against Drumgora on those terms but he came out of the race with a lot of merit.
Good Luck
Chesham
