• Hi Guest, The forum will be moving hosts on 26 July and as such will be closed from Midday until the move has completed.
    As we will be with new hosts it may take a while before DNS get updated so it could take while before you can get back on the forum.
    I think it will take at least 4 hours but could easily be 48!
    Ark Royal
  • There seems to be a problem with some alerts not being emailed to members. I have told the hosts and they are investigating.
  • Sorry for the ongoing issues that you may have been experiencing whilst using the forum lately

    It really is frustrating when the forum slows down or Server Error 500 pops up.

    Apparently the hosts acknowledge there is a problem.
    Thank you for using our services and sorry for the experienced delay!
    Unfortunately, these errors are due to a higher server load. Our senior department knows about the issue and they are working towards a permanent resolution of the issue, however, I'd advise you to consider using our new cPanel cloud solutions: https://www.tsohost.com/web-hosting


    I will have to investigate what the differences are with what We have know compared to the alternative service they want us to migrate to.
    Keep safe.
    AR

Banjaxed

banjaxed

Yearling
It's been a long time since I did any of this and I reckon it'll show too ...

Started looking at the Cambridgeshire today but swiftly began to disappear up my own back passage - I'd forgotten how difficult I always found it trying to apply the VDW stuff.

So then I looked at the 2:50 at Market Rasen ... and here's what I 'saw':

Oscar Rock, Cloud Creeper and Gray Hession look to have it between them. I wouldn't know how to separate them though. All three have been Fav or 2nd fav in last three outings (except GH 3rd last outing) and all performed as expected - is that 'consistent form'.

Valco De Touzaine and Gold Futures are the others, raced each other lto, VDT had been dropped in Class and weight but still couldn't win and GF couldn't finish in front of him either so I've discounted those.

Could currently back all three (OR, CC & GH) and return 41% profit ... but won't put any money down as I feel I have little idea what I'm doing!

Please feel free to point out any/all of the obvious flaws!!

Cheers,
Mark
 

scar

Gelding
I know you didnt back it but well done banjaxed banjaxed :clap:
Could currently back all three (OR, CC & GH) and return 41% profit ... but won't put any money down as I feel I have little idea what I'm doing!
 

banjaxed

Yearling
Thanks guys, beginners luck maybe ...

Haven't had much time today, only had the chance to look at the 3:45 Epsom, here's what I saw:

Rib Reserve - pushed up in class lto and performed well, dropping today and carrying less weight. Has been in the right area of the market in it's last 2.

The other five in the BF look to have been running in much lower class and most haven't been particularly fancied.

I think Rib Reserve is the likely winner but, again, no money down as I'm not that confident.

Good luck if you play today.
 

banjaxed

Yearling
Rib Reserve - 9th. No money down though.

It looked to me to be the only horse in the race but, obviously not!
 

banjaxed

Yearling
Graeme Graeme,

I remember finding a good few like RR when I first starred. Thought they would win but, of course, they didn't.

The way I saw it was:

RR ran in the highest class lto (as far as I could tell), was fancied then, showed improvement and was dropped in class for Sunday's race ... 9th

But there's always tomorrow, isn't there
That's racing alright!
Good luck
 
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banjaxed

Yearling
Only time for one today.

2:00 Ascot - Can't see past Wind Fire and Medicean Man.

Good luck if you're playing today.
 

banjaxed

Yearling
Note to self: Make more time to analyse the racing!

Looking back I cant see why I chose those two horses, can't even see why I chose that race!

Oh well, tomorrow's another day.
 

downey

Yearling
Note to self: Make more time to analyse the racing!
Banjaxed
Made me chuckle that, mind you I would forget to look at the bloody note!
 

banjaxed

Yearling
In an effort to find a way to analyse the racing in the limited time I have at the weekends I began casting around for an alternative approach. I came across a reference by Chesham Chesham to Patrick Kilgallon's book 'How to Beat The Handicapper'. So I bought the book, read it and was quite impressed.

It gives me a defined starting point; the major problem for VDW stuff for me was 'where to start', next problem was 'what to look for'.

So, although not really VDW-related (except for the Valiant Warrior, Travado etc. connection) I'll continue to post my ramblings here - ArkRoyal ArkRoyal, please let me know if I should start another thread outside of VDW to do this stuff.

Looking at today's cards, 2 meetings should be analysed: York & Newmarket. York should be discounted today as the going there is G-S or S - the book says ony consider York if the going is G-F.

So that leaves Newmarket. There are two races to look at:

2:00 & 3:50

There are no potential candidates in the 2:00 so that leaves the 3:50.

From my reading it looks like Low Key is the selection here - possible danger is Oriental Fox.

I've seen other, more august, members post about Low Key today so I hope I haven't put the mockers on it.

Good luck if you play.
 

banjaxed

Yearling
Hi Pingman Pingman,

Yeah, cheers, hit the bar with OF. Got 23/1 on it too, should have gone e/w ... never mind though.

The book is about looking at in handicap races at certain courses (Newmarket & York today) for horses that are C&D handicap race winners. There are a couple of other filters e.g. going, recent form, weight, handicap rating, 5lb/7lb claimers etc but it's a pretty simple approach to adopt.

The 'main' selection based on the book was Low Key as it had a recent win over C&D. I assessed OF as the main danger as it had won the race before (so, obviously was a C&D winner) and it was the only other C&D winner in the race and had good recent form - although not in handicaps.

Interestingly, Grumeti the 50/1 winner, was also listed as a C&D winner in the racing post card ... I couldn't see anywhere within it's form that it had won either at Newmarket or over the race distance.
 

banjaxed

Yearling
Got the morning off so have had a look at today's racing.

I don't know if Patrick Kilgallon (or anyone else) has produced anything similar about C&D winners for NH racing but I haven't been able to find anything yet. If there's anything like that out there then please give me a shout.

So I've started looking at NH races and C&D winners to see if I can pick anything out.

Today I've settled on the 3:50 at Muss and Titus Bolt in particular.

Firstly, TB is the only C&D winner in the race. The 'dangers' would be Schmooze and Nomenklatura but both are running off higher marks than they have ever won off before.

TB, however, won at around the same time last year off a mark of 60 and he contests today’s race off 59.

Seems to have been messed around distance and going wise since then.

To me, the horse seems to have had an almost identical prep for this race as last year.

So there's a C&D winner who won at the same time last year, running off a winning mark today, with an almost identical prep ...

No money down for me but I'm interested to see how it pans out.
 

hedgehog

Mare
Hello banjaxed banjaxed,

I had a quick look and lto Schmooze and Nomenklatura were both beaten by maidens.

Titus Bolt was beaten by a 42AR putting a 3 timer together but at that point the best it had won was a 5K, behind TB was a 52AR which best win was a 8K. TB has a 44AR and best win 9K.

I'm personally not sure it will manage the win
 
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banjaxed banjaxed you picked the right one ,at a nice price shame you didn't have a couple of quid on.i've been posting under past c/d winners on another thread and this horse never showed up on my hrb c/d winners for today.having looked at race qualifier checker it seems the distance for today was different when won over c/d. it's only a matter of yards 1.4 half fur and 1.5 fur.so anyone use hrb should be aware of.

be lucky tony tench
 
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