Backtesting System

[theshield09]

Hello!

Some time ago I had fun with a method that was based on betting against fit teams ... It was the result of simple intuition, I had no statistical data ... even for this it remained only a pastime.

if I had the chance to try this method on a historical database I would have gotten some concrete answers ... I would have known if indeed that system brought advantages.

So I started to elaborate Excel sheets etc ... But my technical skills were not enough.

I searched for collaborators ...

In the end, after so much time and "effort" we have developed a web application .. a site with which to generate fully customizable backtesting strategies.

My theory on betting against fit teams has found excellent confirmations on many different leagues.

The site is completely free and I think it is an excellent source for many betting fans.

May I post the link?

In the meantime I can describe my own strategies if you want.

We will update you soon!

Federico

 

[dave58]

Hi federico.
In answer to your question, no you may not post the link, however feel free to discuss your strategies here, we are all for sharing ideas here.

 

[theshield09]

Hi federico.
In answer to your question, no you may not post the link, however feel free to discuss your strategies here, we are all for sharing ideas here.

Ok thank you!

the peculiarity lies in the fact I can create a different strategy for each league.
so I could easily have a method that gives me a profit on the Belgian championship (for example) and a completely different method that gives me a profit on the Brazilian championship ... and so on.
I prefer to stay on a more or less regular logical line ... so my strategies are based on the initial concept (laying the teams in form or back on those not in form). But it is not necessarily the best way!

For example in Premier League seems to be an advantage betting on the Home Win, when the Home team, in its previous 2 home matches played, made an average of points between 0 and 0.5 (means at most a draw in two home matches)
the home win odds must be greater or equal to 1.50
the backtest, with this setting, return a profit of 17% after 518 bets.

 

[dave58]

Hi theshield09 welcome to the forum. I don't follow football betting myself, but I'm sure there are sites that can enable you to backtest your ideas for a decent length of time, maybe others can help here.
As I said I have no idea about football betting, but surely your idea must take into account the teams involved ?

 

[theshield09]

The logic of the backtest is to verify if to bet under certain conditions in the past, would return profit.
It's a generic test that takes into consideration matches that fall within a certain range of parameters (which can be the average points, average goals, average shots on target etc ...)
You don't need to analyze the teams individually ... but you need a specific method in which a teams sample can be included.