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Back the draw at HT

only1woz

Yearling
Hey guys, just posting up a system of mine that even at it's best won't be pulling up any trees, but a but of interest.

Back the draw at HT where there is a heavy fav.

I'll go into more detail about the thinking behind it later, a bit rushed for time now, but a first selection is inter v bologna which starts in 5 mins. Will post up the bet and pruce if it qualifies.

Cheers 😁
 
Well bologna v inter was a loser, thanks to a howler from the bologna keeper lol. Odds were 4.5 so pretty good, would have been nice for that first one to come in but oh well.

2 to watch out for tomorrow

Fenerbahce v Gaziantep 18.30
Union Berlin v Greuther Furth 19.30

My last post wasn't very clear, if it's a draw at HT, then back the full time draw.
 
Finally managed to get some time to explain this lol.

I've always liked LTD. I haven't done the traditional LTD for years, as in laying the draw then trading it in play because it became apparent years ago that it was very difficult to make money from that system any more, but I did think there might be some good value in leaving the LTD running in certain cases. My last one was to wait til a heavy fav was drawing at HT then lay the draw, as they'd surely almost always go on to win, right?.............................wrong!

I found the opposite was true, the stubborn underdog continued to be stubborn until the end of the match and got a result.

Of course, you'll all know that if the lay system lost money (paper traded) then the opposite BACK bet will surely make profit, yeah? That's how it works lol.

Anyway, I think it's worth a look at, so I'll post up the selections for a month or so and see how it goes, or if it's worth continuing with.

I'll try to update my results at the end of every week, BACK bets will be for £10.00 as an example, as I'll be paper trading only. Bets will be at betfair and all figures will be AFTER commision of 2% has been taken off.

At the moment, as I'm new to the forum, my posts need to be approved by a Mod, but the original post time stamp stays the same so you won't be able to get on (if you were mental enough to consider it lol) but it'll show I'm not after-eventing.

If anyone has any questions then fire away :D
 
And while I have time, I might as well put up Saturdays ones to watch......

Newcastle v Liverpool 12.30
Napoli v Sassuolo 14.00
Djurgarden v Sirius 14.00
Dortmund v Bochum 14.30
Aston Villa v Norwich 15.00
Madrid v Espanyol 15.15
Viking v Haugesund 17.00
Leeds v Man C 17.30
Ajax v Zwolle 17.45
Sparta Prague v Hradec 18.00
Sibenik v Rijeka 18.05
Porto v Vizela 19.00
Rennes v St Etienne 20.00
 
Good man ArkRoyal, thanks for that 👍

None of the 3 selections for tonight were a draw at HT, so no bets tonight. Enjoy your Friday night folks 😃
 
Winner at sparta but a loser at sibenik puts us at a small profit so far.

Today's matches to watch......

Juventus v Venezia 11.30
PSV v Willem 13.30
Tottenham v Leicester 14.00
Monaco v Angers 14.00
Alanyaspor v Malatyaspor 14.00
Jablonec v Karvina 15.00
Sittard v Feyenoord 15.45
Osijek v Istra 16.00
Lok Zagreb v Din Zagreb 18.05
Cluj v Constanta 19.30
Roma v Bologna 19.45
Barcelona v Mallorca 20.00
Sporting v Gil Vicente 20.30
 
Best of luck with this O only1woz

The nature of your method is one where a lot of punters fall at the first hurdle. With football, the tendency is to want to see goals in a match, and to do the opposite, ( ie. have no more goals or very few ), goes against the grain of our nature.

Faced with a 50/50 ( Evens ) bet for over/under 2.5 goals......most, myself included......would opt for overs. This is what you were alluding to in post #4 I see.

Discipline and focus with our approach or method can put us on a winning foothold. I think your idea has legs and will follow with interest.
I am also a little surprised by the odds you are getting at half-time for the draw ( 5/2 ....3.5+ ).....looks promising.
.
 
Nice one retriever retriever ,thanks.

All ideas and theories are welcome.

Like I say I'll keep this going for a month or so, until the end of the main league seasons.

If it isn't a complete bonfire then will keep it going over the summer leagues (a lot less selections obviously) and into the August leagues starting back up again.

And I'm always disciplined in my betting, I learned that a long time ago. Cost me a few bob to learn, but worth it in the long run haha
 
And I'm always disciplined in my betting, I learned that a long time ago. Cost me a few bob to learn

Same here on the whole, but would consider myself still in the 'exploration and learning' stage.
The key is to trust your own methods and yourself and yes, it has cost me a fair bit to learn this too.
That's probably a 'common' theme for a lot of the posters on this forum. Incidentally, welcome, btw.
 
Last edited:
Wins at Osijek and Roma, but a loss at Cluj. Great start to this but I think it's just a bit of beginners luck, not getting too carried away. Weekly update coming.....
 
date
home
away
odds
Stake
HT Score
FT Score
Winner
profit
27 Apr 22
bologna
INTER
4.50
£10.00
1 – 1
2 – 1
No
-£10.00
30 Apr 22
SPARTA PR
hradec
3.85
£10.00
0 – 0
1 – 1
YES
£27.93
30 Apr 22
sibenik
RIJEKA
3.60
£10.00
2 – 2
3 – 5
No
-£10.00
1 May 22
OSIJEK
istra
3.50
£10.00
2 – 2
2 – 2
YES
£24.50
1 May 22
CLUJ
costanta
2.74
£10.00
0 – 0
1 – 0
No
-£10.00
1 May 22
Roma
bolgona
3.50
£10.00
0 – 0
0 – 0
YES
£21.56
TOTAL
£43.99
 
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