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Delboy99

Colt
...... Tottenham got one back just on the stroke of half time so it needs a good HT talk by Jose to liven these guys up I think! :eek:
 

Delboy99

Colt
..... pass me that darned popcorn again I have worked up an appetite! :eek: I actually wrote the chances of Spurs off when they went two down! I suppose a game is never over until it is won and I was glad to hear the final whistle. That makes it 1 correct from 1 tonight and the overall total now reads 47 correct from 58 selections (81.03%) Good to be on the upward track again. Back tomorrow night for some more nail biters. :D
 

Delboy99

Colt
@footysystems Yes thank you very much for your kind comments. Been a few hiccups over a few games lately but the hit rate has not dropped below 80% since we moved over to home selections only. A bit scary last night with Spurs going two down early on, but all was rectified with their gutsy fightback. Trust your systems are moving well also, but not seen much of you lately. :eek:
 

footysystems

Gelding
@footysystems Yes thank you very much for your kind comments. Been a few hiccups over a few games lately but the hit rate has not dropped below 80% since we moved over to home selections only. A bit scary last night with Spurs going two down early on, but all was rectified with their gutsy fightback. Trust your systems are moving well also, but not seen much of you lately. :eek:
Yes was on Spurs last night, things going very well ATM i might have a pressie for the football members of the forum new few weeks, going away Saturday for a few days but will be back posting after that.
 

Delboy99

Colt
..... OK we are back in business with three selections just appearing:-
LIVERPOOL v Napoli @ odds 1.52
BARCELONA v Dortmund @ odds 1.48
RB LEIPZIG v Benfica @ odds 1.48
Looking for this threesome coming good tonight. ;)
 

Delboy99

Colt
..... a fourth selection was highlighted whilst I was away and was recorded at 10.24pm:- can provide log if required.
INTERNACIONAL v Goias @ odds 1.42.

No too good looking at the HT score = 0-1. Will update this tomorrow.
Meanwhile the other three tonight appear to be continuing on the downward trend and not contributing to the cause too much!
Only Barcelona winning 3-1 with Liverpool drawing 1-1 and RB Leipzig drawing 2-2.
So the total tally is now 48 correct from 61 selections (78.69%). The first time this has dipped below 80% since we started the homes only. Let's hope we have some further successes tomorrow night. :sorry:
 

paulb164

Colt
..... a fourth selection was highlighted whilst I was away and was recorded at 10.24pm:- can provide log if required.
INTERNACIONAL v Goias @ odds 1.42.

No too good looking at the HT score = 0-1. Will update this tomorrow.
Meanwhile the other three tonight appear to be continuing on the downward trend and not contributing to the cause too much!
Only Barcelona winning 3-1 with Liverpool drawing 1-1 and RB Leipzig drawing 2-2.
So the total tally is now 48 correct from 61 selections (78.69%). The first time this has dipped below 80% since we started the homes only. Let's hope we have some further successes tomorrow night. :sorry:
I generally avoid cup games of any sort when betting on sides to win - too many other variables come into play that affect outcomes (dead rubbers, teams already qualified, squad rotation, fixtures congestion within domestic campaigns, etc). And with the Champions League, you are pitting the best teams of various leagues against each other, which on their day can beat anyone else (or at least squeeze a frustrating draw out !). Personally I'll only bet on any side to win when there's a genuine desire to win (e.g. to qualify to the next stages) against a team with no need to field or expose their strongest team (e.g. already qualified, or no longer able to qualify).
Both Liverpool and RB Leipzig were playing against teams that could still qualify, and were clearly trying very hard to keep their hopes alive - when faced with those kind of scenarios, I usually just play the goal markets. If it's possible to do, I personally would switch off the ability for APS to bet on cup games and just concentrate their filters on domestic games (unless research has shown that cup games still over time return profitable outcomes ?).
 

paulb164

Colt
A case in point - tonight's Europa league match; Astana (bottom of the table with 0 points and cannot qualify) v Manchester Utd (currently top of the table and already qualified, although still not certain to finish top with another round still to play after tonight). Betfair's odds on an away win is around 2.0 - nice odds by the sound of it.

Dig deeper, and you find (taken from the BBC website on tonight's match preview);
  • Manchester United have named an inexperienced squad for Thursday's Europa League game
  • Manager Ole Gunnar Solskjaer's 18-man squad features 14 teenagers - with 10 yet to play a first-team game.
  • After tonight's game, United have to play nine games in December, having also reached the Carabao Cup quarter-finals.
  • Their Under-21 side will also play in the Leasing.com Trophy knockout stage, having won each group game, so Solskjaer has selected several of those players, along with some fit-again fringe players.
"It's common sense," said Solskjaer. "We have done great to qualify after four games, so it gives us an opportunity to give game time to the experienced lads who need it: Axel [Tuanzebe], Luke [Shaw] and Jesse [Lingard]. They've not really had too many games and they're coming back from injuries".
"It's hard with the young kids to give them enough games against men - professional games. We've got the EFL Trophy and for me this is a great chance for me to see them all together."

So, with Astana playing at home in sunny Azerbaijan against a bunch of kids and some returning (non-match fit ?) seniors... does evens still look like a good bet ? To be fair, odds are calculated on probable outcome, and there are banks of bookie computers with complicated algorithms working out the likelyhoods of results, so we can moderately assume that evens is about the right place to decide the outcome one way or another... so I guess the better question is whether you think Man Utd will win tonight and not let the odds themselves sway your judgement (LOL - unless of course your decision-making is based on value, in which case do you disagree with evens as the benchmark ?).
Ironically, after saying all that, I do often use odds as a kind of filter... but only to compliment my systems and because it has a positive outcome on profit/loss. I don't necessarily use it as a starting point for bet selection (as APS seems to be doing).

Man Utd's squad for tonight;
Goalkeepers: Lee Grant (36), Matej Kovar (19).
Defenders: Max Taylor (19), Luke Shaw (24), Axel Tuanzebe (22), Teden Mengi (17), Di'Shon Bernard (19), Ethan Laird (18).
Midfielders: Dylan Levitt (19), Ethan Galbraith (18), Arnau Puigmal (18), James Garner (18), Jesse Lingard (26), Tahith Chong (19), Angel Gomes (19).
Forwards: Largie Ramazani (19), D'Mani Bughail-Mellor (19), Mason Greenwood (18).
 

paulb164

Colt
LOL - my bad - it's sunny (?) Kazakhstan that Man Utd are travelling to !
Why they're playing in a European league I have no idea !! They are 8.5 hours flight time Eastward.

More on that game -
it's -15 degrees locally at the moment... as Kazakhstan is ahead of the GMT timezone, the kick-off is 15:50 UK time, which is 22:50 local time. No doubt Astana's players are used to the conditions, but will the Man Utd youth team that will take to the pitch be feeling the chill ? The more I look at this game, the more I like the idea of laying Man Utd for the result !
 
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Delboy99

Colt
..... another fruitless night of despair waiting for qualifiers coming through and which did not materialise. So it is onwards and upwards towards hopefully more action tomorrow night. See you then. Cheers. ;)
 

paulb164

Colt
Well reasoned, hope you followed it up with a few pennies.
I did - I layed Man Utd for evens... wish I had confidence in my convictions and backed Astana at 4.1 at the start of the game, but I felt it was going to be a low-scoring game, and was worried about the draw !
 

paulb164

Colt
..... another fruitless night of despair waiting for qualifiers coming through and which did not materialise. So it is onwards and upwards towards hopefully more action tomorrow night. See you then. Cheers. ;)
Lots of games today/tonight ahead of a busy football weekend... have faith 👍
 
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