• Hi Guest, The forum will be moving hosts on 26 July and as such will be closed from Midday until the move has completed.
    As we will be with new hosts it may take a while before DNS get updated so it could take while before you can get back on the forum.
    I think it will take at least 4 hours but could easily be 48!
    Ark Royal
  • There seems to be a problem with some alerts not being emailed to members. I have told the hosts and they are investigating.
  • Sorry for the ongoing issues that you may have been experiencing whilst using the forum lately

    It really is frustrating when the forum slows down or Server Error 500 pops up.

    Apparently the hosts acknowledge there is a problem.
    Thank you for using our services and sorry for the experienced delay!
    Unfortunately, these errors are due to a higher server load. Our senior department knows about the issue and they are working towards a permanent resolution of the issue, however, I'd advise you to consider using our new cPanel cloud solutions: https://www.tsohost.com/web-hosting


    I will have to investigate what the differences are with what We have know compared to the alternative service they want us to migrate to.
    Keep safe.
    AR

Are the bookies good prognosticators ?

That sounds like a silly question, because we all believe they are.
We are trying to beat them but it's not easy.

When we make a football bet we always try to outguess the bookie.
When he offers evens it means to us he sees it as a little less than fifty-fifty.
If we then bet it means that we think it is a sure win so we decide to bet.
For better or worse we are trying to outguess the bookie.

The bookies count their money but they too can be said to succeed or fail in
the game of guessing the outcome of football matches.
So last week when they said Liverpool 1.16 against Aston Villa it was dismal
as a prediction.
We too were dismal because we saw the "1.16" and we all said "yeah that's what
it is - stroll in the park".
So if he is dismal and we are also dismal you will ask "what is it you are
looking for ? we were all in the dark so forget it".

But I 'm also looking for patterns - instabilities.
Two areas of concern are those:

a) Early season - It's when all sorts of strange things happen.
Historical examples ? Many. What about France 1998 ? Two months after the
French won the world cup, their first engagement was against Iceland and
they lost. Greece 2004 ? Two months after they won the Euro in Portugal
they lost to Albania for the preliminaries of world cup 2006.
For the last one I had a feeling. They had taken all those players from the
beach and make them play football. But the bookie price for Albania was 5.00
or 5.50 as I remember.
So do the bookies regularly perform bad in the early part of the season ?

b) Popular teams and less popular teams - In the EPL the most popular teams
are Liverpool-Chelsea-City-United-Tottenham-Arsenal. The others are less
popular and fewer people follow them. In France it is PSG-Lyon-Marseille
and Monaco I should think. In Italy Juve-Napoli-Inter-AC Milan-Roma and
so on. So if we form a group of matches in which one at least of the popular
teams is playing and a second group of matches in which none of the named
very popular teams is present what happens statistics-wise ?

The question is not if me-you-anybody outperforms the bookies.
The question is within themselves what happens.

Do we have any tabulated statistics anywhere for these things ?
 
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OnTheNod

Gelding
Hi cosmicsports cosmicsports Everything is easy in hindsight i dont believe in patterns much how can we know all the elements before hand it is impossible i believe, all i know is value is best combind with events that stay fairly constant over long periods of time so then one has much more evidence, short term stats and looking for patterns can really fool one at times with data.
 
Hi cosmicsports cosmicsports Everything is easy in hindsight i dont believe in patterns much how can we know all the elements before hand it is impossible i believe, all i know is value is best combind with events that stay fairly constant over long periods of time so then one has much more evidence, short term stats and looking for patterns can really fool one at times with data.

Not really. Remember that the Germans failed to produce the atom bomb because they mistakenly believed the U-238 resonances, from which Plutonium 239 is produced, were spurious oscilloscope statistical noise (is one of the theories why the Germans lost the race to the bomb).
 
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