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Approaching speed figures

1715 Try Our New Price Boosts At Unibet Apprentice Handicap

Who comes up with these names for races, christ. Why have a "Cazoo Derby" on your CV when you can be the winner of this? Anyway, the favourite is quite rightly Quick Breath and it will take the beating for me, best LTO and solid on HRB. Shapes as though it will come off a decent pace and has a recent 79 over CD that will be difficult for others to match. On pure numbers, I'd say Swiss Pride is the main danger and its interesting that the horse is being stepped up in trip following a series of very good efforts at Lingfield. Eagle Creek would have been a tantalising EW pick but his recent 83 was off a break and I'm not sure its guaranteed to repeat. I'm with the favourite here, strong play on him to win.

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Potenza won last time out but his SPD of 70 isn't anything special and I couldn't touch him at such a short price. His price is probably due more to solid turf form. I am going to stick with my figures leader Seaborn. 25s and 28s available everywhere and his 3 AW performances all better what Potenza managed last time out in addition to a more generous mark (75-75-73). The return to all weather must suit him here and I'd try a half win-half each way bet here.

1845 Unibet 3 Uniboosts A Day Handicap

Again the market sees it differently to me here. Keeper was pulled from the last at Wolverhampton yesterday where they must have felt the eventual winner would prove too good, and he's rerouted here where the numbers suggest he faces a bit more depth, but he's fairly treated and his short price is no surprise. There are plenty here with claims, but too many have obvious negatives for me to suggest betting on it, whether its inconsistency, a poor recent run, or questions over their handling of this track. I'm keeping the pennies for another race and if Keeper wins he will probably do it in some style.

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The pace figures hardly suggest this will be run at any sort of clip so with no-one wanting to lead it could prove a falsely run affair. Again, I could rule some out just as quickly as I could rule them in, so if I was to try anything it would probably be Golden Claim which has performed the most impressive of late. Secret Haunt's SPD of 69 LTO is also worth bearing in mind too, but I can honestly see a few of these falling over the line together in a heap after a sprint finish and it might be luck as to which one gets their head in front. For that reason, I'll leave.

1945 Unibet New Instant Roulette Handicap

The final race is arguably an even bigger puzzle. Almost all the field has produced a performance at some point that would win this race if repeated, but I am very keen on the chances of Stormbomber. Though his SPD for his last 3 hasn't been great, he's trying a mile again and may come good for a slightly sharper test. However literally everything else is very much respected, not least Oud Metha Bridge, who has proved his worth with a 73 over CD in November but with a couple of disappointments since, and Salam Ya Faisal, who is very in and out but produced an 80 at Chelmsford in May and on a going day could threaten. This is a good race to finish and I think the winner will have run well and its likely to require something to produce 75 or better. Its Stormbomber for me, to win.

No play in the 1745 - just 1 AW performance recorded of no note whatseover.

1715 Quick Breath WIN
1815 Seaborn 0.5 WIN/ 0.5 EW
1945 Stormbomber WIN
 
Another nice outing for the ratings yesterday, Seaborn ran 2nd, at 66/1. It looks like Scots Grace will prove a good horse in time, lots of potential. 75 not quite delivered in the last as was anticipated.

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We're identifying a lot of winners in this thread, and some really good placed horses.

The main point is that finding well rated horses is helping us go close and we are working on selections from an evidence base that is increasingly capable of being trusted. We can throw some horses out easily, and we've found a lot of favourites who it appears just can't possibly win. I did suggest Golden Claim if forced to bet, and more often than not a profit is looking likely. If you are making money from this then enjoy it. I'm not making a bean from it. Its just fun for me. Maybe the time to try with real money is when we are going through a horror streak that cannot possibly continue.
 
Wait ages for a bus and 3 come along at once. Will put figures up in the morning, might be lunchtime for the two evening meetings.

I'm continuing a lot of graft behind the scenes with National Hunt figures, its every bit as much hard work as being suggested. I've found a way of splitting Cheltenham up, when figures are produced it will distinguish the old and new courses. I thought be working on Cheltenham first most of the rest would be easier. But we'll see. For me the interesting bit will be the course calibration. So far I've found that the most critical to the AW success.
 
Three meetings today, will try and offer some comments around lunchtime on Dundalk.
 

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1300 Hollywoodbets Donates To Irish Horse Welfare Trust Handicap

Ecclesiastical has to be forgiven his last performance and tries again after an AW break, with runs of 84 and 85 earlier in the year. Seems to be weighted well. I don't have any data for Lipizzaner but he seems to be decent on HRB so is respected and may prove better than The Highway Rat who ran a fine race over this distance in May. Any of these three would be most likely for me but I'd try Ecclesiastical EW at a decent price.

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War Hero and Irish Acclaim are the two at the front end and alongside Meishar have figures well ahead of the others. They are sufficiently hard to separate and also sufficiently short priced to make this a no bet race. All off an AW break so fitness could hold the key here.

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Nothing especially likeable in this one, Bears Hug has run into a few places but with less than earth shattering performance figures. By contrast, the best LTO performer is Ablah who ran to a 63 (best in 4 for Bears Hug is 55 and Ablah also has a 67 and 60 latter over C&D). At the prices has to be worth an EW. Devious Dreamer is also respected in this company too.

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Few performances in this one but looing at who's top Karpen's 63 is no disgrace and at a three figure price, why not, EW possibilities and some fair way better than those who have a performance to their name. Worth chancing to hit the frame in my opinion. Obviously River Eden is from good stock and is well fancied.
 
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A lot of these are out of sorts at present but the market, and my figures generally align here and Zahee is entitled to favouritism with a very good 78 to his name over C&D when third here in February. He has to give 8lb to Boasty which would bring him into calculations but his best runs appear to have been over 1m2f so I'm with Zahee here to win.

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Malawi leads the market here and though his SPD is 15 below that of Boola Boola the overall RTG figure is 7 higher, so his SPD was in a very slowly run affair. I'd expect Malawi to go well here but too many unknowns to contemplate a bet.

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Wide open handicap to finish in which Chateau Musar is an understandable market leader, very consistent here but in 5 runs over this distance is yet to record a SPD of 70 and isn't exactly weighted favourably either, up 3lb for his last victory. By contrast, Storm Steps has done it three times (72 when winning LTO), and ticks a lot of other boxes though up 4lb himself. He'll try and see it through from up front, and doesn't seem to have a particularly poor draw. Time and Money also figures well on ratings but the case for caution is due to his work generally being over a mile to this point. Anglo Saxson is another who you could consider after a massive drop in OR but yet to try here and has been running in the UK, so I'd treat this one with caution. I can't ignore the claims of Storm Steps and I'd go 1pt win/ 1pt EW.
 
Quick ones from Lingfield

1905 Everything Total Commitment has done has him better off than Raaeb, and from the inside gate he's easily preferred. Has some performances around the turn of the year in the 90s. Mohareb is respected but his last two AWs over this distance have disappointed and he was only good for a 73 when last trying here in December. Total Commitment gets the nod.

2005 Oriental Art is the market fancy but there's reasons to oppose, a new trip and modest figures. The vote here is for Arthurs Angel, who sets consistent high 60/low 70 figures and isn't giving away huge chunks of weight. Liger King looks good in the figures but I can't really see from the evidence that a repeat of its previous runs would get a place.

2035 Fame and Fortune has shown some decent ability over C&D and at slightly better odds than some opponents is worth an EW bet. Civil Law got the hang of things at Newcastle in May but this is a different track and therefore different test.
 
And Wolves

1825 Most of these being asked to step up in trip, not one for me. Largo Bay has perhaps been the best of those who've tried recently and could still be improving but for me its a no bet.

1855 A very complex puzzle this, and could get messy with some preferring to take from the front drawn quite wide, and some hold up types pinned to the rail (putting me off Al Asef). If Araifjan can get across here, he'd have a nice chance, but its a bit too much of an iff for me. Of those drawn wide perhaps Tathmeen widest of all has least need to get to the rail and can get cover, hoping for the gap to come. Its ran an 82 over CD in May and can certainly hit the frame with a repeat of that. I'll take Tathmeen EW.

1925 Blue Medici is ticking all kinds of boxes, its last five runs have achieved SPD's over 70, and his OR has now dropped to 70 but the form of his recent try at York is working beautifully, and in a race where none are guaranteed to give their best, he can capitalise. Draw not a problem for me and he should tuck in. Love him as an EW shout.

1955 This is a race likely to have quite a strong pace but its not easy to expect something to come from the back with confidence here. Trevolli is a very unconvincing market leader but there's several that a case can legitimately be made for and with a few fairly inconsistent types its easily side stepped. No bet but you could consider laying Trevolli perhaps if that's your bag.

2055 Kayfast Warrior did it well the other day on turf here and is hat trick seeking. It looks like Major J could be the fly in the ointment if it relishes a step up in trip but really little to get excited about. Again no bet.
 
I'll sort some figures out for Monday's racing later, but its a bit time pressed as I'm moving house this week and have a lot to sort out.

I've gone over all my suggested bets, and may start another thread for selections with figures still posted in here, and since 23 June I've suggested bets totalling an outlay 36pts, for all to see, and the returns at the published prices when the sheets published are 38.01 pts at 105.6% ROI, and at SP, its not too bad, 19.98pts at 55.5% ROI. EWs are all counted at 1/4 odds just to keep it simple, I know not everyone will get those terms. Here's the full list below. Since the 14th bet, we've been in profit all the way.

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I've personally not made a bean from any of this. If you've followed any of them well done because you'll have a couple of quid. Going forward I'm taking this thread back to a pure speed/ratings discussion as I've now slightly digressed.
 
I'm passing for the time being. Too many things going on personally at present (today I've very unexpectedly lost an inlaw to Covid) but hopefully will return in a couple of weeks. Its probably a nice time to close this thread and start a new one.
 
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