A few changes to my method. I've decided there's nothing really to justify not scaling the ratings to OR, so I've done so. In addition, there is now more flexibility in the going allowance calculations, so the nearer the Z-Score is to 0, the more reliance is placed on the meeting going adjustment, if the Z-Score is 1.5 either way or more, the going will be based on the race itself. However the general bias is still strongly towards the overall meeting rather than the individual race, unless the Z-Score is 1 either way when the race carries greater weight.
These are the 2013-2021 performances at Dundalk now. Most of the better ones are still over 5 furlongs but they are just better horses generally as I see it anyway.
With working to ORs it is interesting when you see a race that looks to have been strong when comparing horses OR to their speed rating. This race does suggest that the speed figures flatter the actual horses to the tune of 6lb, but even then, it comes across as those a few horses were a stone or so better than their OR if the performances were to be believed.
Here's how the first 7 have run since. 8 wins and 12 places from 25 outings, 55.8pts. Sense of Worth ran off 58 in this race and the handicapper not six weeks later found him good enough to be placed on a mark of 85 for his recent performance at Leopardstown.
This looks like an nice enough of using the ratings even if there is some retrospect attached. Pride of Pimlico's next three races at the track earned him 63, 73 and 63 on my scale, so his 66 is shown not to be a fluke even if two of those were only good enough for him to place.
I looked at Pride of Pimlico's race the following week, to see what beat him. Gormanston won the race and was a fairly consistent mid 50s horse but managed a 63 and 67 in recent times as well, and wouldn't have been completely unrealistic competition. Gormanston was 14/1, with Pride of Pimlico sent off 11/4 favourite.
Beleaguerment who was second brought figures of 66-58-59-73-74-67-41-60 into the race and this time managed a 72. He was dropped to 5 furlongs for the 41, with no other races at Dundalk on the record of less than 7 furlongs, and it looks from these figures as though they maybe laid him out to win this race but were denied by one a bit better handicapped. The pattern of those runs implies a 73-74 performance might not have been out of the question.
More recently I spotted this, look at The Highway Rat's figure from a week or two ago. It had managed a winning 66 followed by a 61 here over 7 furlongs earlier in the year, but dropped to 5 furlongs, exploded thus when winning by 7 lengths:
The Handicapper slaughtered him and he was given a mark of 91 for a race at Cork the week after, where he was beaten a neck. Doesn't suggest 87 is far out as a figure, and the rest of the field have run fairly somewhere close to what would have been expected so you wouldn't have thought anything else is of note. You'd say the winner would be interesting back on all-weather but as for his price - 6/5 at best wherever he turns up?