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  • Hi Guest Just in case you were not aware I wanted to highlight that you can now get a free 7 day trial of Horseracebase here.
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all weather thoughts and flat racing

Sandhog

Gelding
Yes, L lendos.
It's not the end of the world, I backed Old Port in the place market.
Just have to see what Huraiz does now. I'm not particularly confident, but, my small ew will have to do me for today. :)
 

mattyboy

Yearling
Looking at the 5.50 at Southwell tomorrow.
Two impressive last time out winners head the market. The current odds-on favourite, (running under a 5lbs penalty) Totally Charming took apart his field easily last time on debut for George Boughey on return from a 183 day break, and has had only four career starts. Second favourite Lammas won nicely over C&D last time after a 145 day break and 4lbs rise looks very fair, with potential for more to come after just seven career starts.

Reading an early 2000s Isiris book yesterday, one of the golden rules given is to avoid backing a horse on second run back after a break, as market expects the horse to improve for first run back, meaning the horse starts out at too short a price. Additionally the author suggests that a horse is likely to feel the effects of a first race after the absence, (similar to the first time a human being exercises after a long break before then getting into the swing of things). Now I'm sure both training methods and market has changed since the early noughties, but nevertheless at the prices, I've looked for something else in this race.

There are some I really don;t fancy:
Scott Dixon has three in the race. Pop Favourite is Kieran O'Neill's mount but is out of form, (although is entered in another handicap here on Saturday; that being an easier 0-65 meaning he could be well-in there if winning tomorrow and running under a penalty there). Harbour Vision has third start for yard, having joined from David Brown and was thrashed last time by the far less exposed Lamma, (although is also entered again here at the weekend; this time in another 0-80). The third Dixon runner Gypsy Runner has the best recent form of the three, but is also entered in a 0-65 handicap here at the weekend. He races off 67 tomorrow, and Jack Duern rides tomorrow so definitely looks the yard third-string for this race to me.

Ulshaw Bride makes retutrn from a break with a 7lbs claimer booked who has only had 4 career rides in the UK. Hugo Palmer brings just Battered here but ha sbooked a jockey having his first ever public ride and the horse reappears after a break, looking badly on the downgrade.

That leaves Plastic Paddy Paddy who ran well behind Lammas last time, but is on a career high mark of 70, (having won a class 6 handicap at Newcastle off 7lbs lower in mid October), and Star of St James for Richard Fahey. This one has had two runs since a break, and they've both been very poor. However, that means he has come below his last winning mark of 72 achieved here a year ago., (albeit on the old Fibresand surface obviously). The horse though is three from ten at Southwell, with two further places here. Therefore I would not be surprised to see a much better run.

My selection is Star of St James e/w at a current best price of 25/1, in the hope that he can at least place, with a good chance if the front two in the market do bounce
 
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mattyboy

Yearling
Adam Kirby takes two rides at Southwell tomorrow, having not had any previous rides in at leatsd 14 days, (and with no more booked in UK after tomorrow).
One of them is for Clive Cox on an unexposed two year old that has won its first two races and runs in the feature race., (he has also ridden the horse on its first two rides). The other is an outside ride for Simon Pearce on a horse having its first run outside of novice/maiden status in the 0-50 classified stakes half an hour earlier.

Maybe worth a sneaky each-way double?
(Mind you, there are only six runners in the 7.20). And I'm not sure the Clive Cox horse starts handicap life on a very good mark. We'll see
 
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Sandhog

Gelding
Good write-ups there, M mattyboy.
I looked at both races and found them too difficult, so have decided not to bet in the Lammas one.

I will have a bet in the 7.20, but, just because I always back a certain trainer. I won't tip it here, as it looks to be up agin it today.
Tuesday is traditionally my day for terrible losses. :D
 

lendos

Filly
Looking at the 5.50 at Southwell tomorrow.
Two impressive last time out winners head the market. The current odds-on favourite, (running under a 5lbs penalty) Totally Charming took apart his field easily last time on debut for George Boughey on return from a 183 day break, and has had only four career starts. Second favourite Lammas won nicely over C&D last time after a 145 day break and 4lbs rise looks very fair, with potential for more to come after just seven career starts.

Reading an early 2000s Isiris book yesterday, one of the golden rules given is to avoid backing a horse on second run back after a break, as market expects the horse to improve for first run back, meaning the horse starts out at too short a price. Additionally the author suggests that a horse is likely to feel the effects of a first race after the absence, (similar to the first time a human being exercises after a long break before then getting into the swing of things). Now I'm sure both training methods and market has changed since the early noughties, but nevertheless at the prices, I've looked for something else in this race.

There are some I really don;t fancy:
Scott Dixon has three in the race. Pop Favourite is Kieran O'Neill's mount but is out of form, (although is entered in another handicap here on Saturday; that being an easier 0-65 meaning he could be well-in there if winning tomorrow and running under a penalty there). Harbour Vision has third start for yard, having joined from David Brown and was thrashed last time by the far less exposed Lamma, (although is also entered again here at the weekend; this time in another 0-80). The third Dixon runner Gypsy Runner has the best recent form of the three, but is also entered in a 0-65 handicap here at the weekend. He races off 67 tomorrow, and Jack Duern rides tomorrow so definitely looks the yard third-string for this race to me.

Ulshaw Bride makes retutrn from a break with a 7lbs claimer booked who has only had 4 career rides in the UK. Hugo Palmer brings just Battered here but ha sbooked a jockey having his first ever public ride and the horse reappears after a break, looking badly on the downgrade.

That leaves Plastic Paddy Paddy who ran well behind Lammas last time, but is on a career high mark of 70, (having won a class 6 handicap at Newcastle off 7lbs lower in mid October), and Star of St James for Richard Fahey. This one has had two runs since a break, and they've both been very poor. However, that means he has come below his last winning mark of 72 achieved here a year ago., (albeit on the old Fibresand surface obviously). The horse though is three from ten at Southwell, with two further places here. Therefore I would not be surprised to see a much better run.

My selection is Star of St James e/w at a current best price of 25/1, in the hope that he can at least place, with a good chance if the front two in the market do bounce
M mattyboy very good write up, about horses bouncing would be more prevalent in nh racing imo, not that it dosnt happen in flat racing, i wouldnt bet in the racing just yet at southwell, TOTALLY CHARMING i would be more worried that its improved form was on polytrack, it has won on tapeta so might handle it, best of luck with star of james
 

mick

Sire
My own take on the AW is its all about the surface which even when same type can still vary from course to course. With this in mind when a new AW track opens or as per Southwell a surface change is implemented i wait a full year before actually betting on same. Some may feel this is OTT but it suits my thinking.
 

mick

Sire
S Sandhog my bad days during the flat season are saturdays where i find the racing to competitive so tend to leave the racing alone unless one stands out
Many punters now feel there is to much racing but my take is the opposite. We can reduce the work load by some form of race type specialization, and the more meetings then the greater the chance that the Odds Compilers will rick a price. So i like Saturdays and these days with the 4 day and 48 hr decs readily available there is no need for any bet decisions to be rushed. :)
 

Sandhog

Gelding
And despite my handle ( sand hog), I don't believe the surface makes much difference, provided the trainer has done his prep and his homework. They train 'em largely on the dirt, and should have a good idea of what their animal can do, when they make the entries.

That's why I put a lot of emphasis on the trainer; some are better at placing than others. I know the ones I like.

Of course, the next important factor is the jockey. The jockey needs to know the drill, AND, must be able to carry it out properly.

Ain't asking much, am I?:D
 

markfinn

Sire
My own take on the AW is its all about the surface which even when same type can still vary from course to course. With this in mind when a new AW track opens or as per Southwell a surface change is implemented i wait a full year before actually betting on same. Some may feel this is OTT but it suits my thinking.
MM - Considering they use the same jocks and most are now trained on something other than turf, I see no reason why you would not consider the meetings as suitable - the draw maybe unknow but we see every day draw stats proven wrong so ? whats ( generally there are some but even these are now being ironed out) the worth of them especially with the stewards looking to keep jockeys more in lanes - which will that be a good thing long term ? I think so but open to persuasion. Look for more and more new names making the frame
 

Sandhog

Gelding
Yes, I'd like to know what is MM? markfinn markfinn,
I tend to agree your points; my view is that the way they run is more the governing factor than anything else.
Take Huraiz yesterday; wasn't off an inch, imo. Won't be surprised if it pisses up on a similar surface another day.
Yeah, "bad start", missed the break, and all the rest of it, but.... excuses, imo.
NTO (maybe). :D
 
I am yet to have a bet on the new surface at Southwell (not because I am consciously avoiding it), but was comparing its numbers with when Wolverhampton switched from polytrack to tapeta in 2014. At this early stage, the market seems much better informed about Southwell than it was about Wolverhampton at same stage after its change of surface, as the numbers below show. I am not suggesting that we should start following the market, but so far it seems to have been a much smoother transition for Southwell than it was for Wolverhampton. Wolverhampton continued to throw strange results for many months after its surface change, but that has not been the case with Southwell so far. I don’t know the reason for this but it could be that many horses now already have experience of tapeta, whereas when Wolverhampton switched it was a completely new surface in country. Or maybe, tapeta is closer to fibresand than it is to polytrack, not sure about this?

Similarly the course winners on polytrack did much worse on tapeta at Wolverhampton than has been the case with course/fibresand winners on tapeta at Southwell, but sample size for this is very small at the moment.

1A3E4D0E-658C-499A-9F99-CC0AA0A6D3B2.jpeg45A4E8E1-1BD7-4988-8E30-BD4DAF8E0E35.jpeg
 
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