M mattyboy very good write up, about horses bouncing would be more prevalent in nh racing imo, not that it dosnt happen in flat racing, i wouldnt bet in the racing just yet at southwell, TOTALLY CHARMING i would be more worried that its improved form was on polytrack, it has won on tapeta so might handle it, best of luck with star of jamesLooking at the 5.50 at Southwell tomorrow.
Two impressive last time out winners head the market. The current odds-on favourite, (running under a 5lbs penalty) Totally Charming took apart his field easily last time on debut for George Boughey on return from a 183 day break, and has had only four career starts. Second favourite Lammas won nicely over C&D last time after a 145 day break and 4lbs rise looks very fair, with potential for more to come after just seven career starts.
Reading an early 2000s Isiris book yesterday, one of the golden rules given is to avoid backing a horse on second run back after a break, as market expects the horse to improve for first run back, meaning the horse starts out at too short a price. Additionally the author suggests that a horse is likely to feel the effects of a first race after the absence, (similar to the first time a human being exercises after a long break before then getting into the swing of things). Now I'm sure both training methods and market has changed since the early noughties, but nevertheless at the prices, I've looked for something else in this race.
There are some I really don;t fancy:
Scott Dixon has three in the race. Pop Favourite is Kieran O'Neill's mount but is out of form, (although is entered in another handicap here on Saturday; that being an easier 0-65 meaning he could be well-in there if winning tomorrow and running under a penalty there). Harbour Vision has third start for yard, having joined from David Brown and was thrashed last time by the far less exposed Lamma, (although is also entered again here at the weekend; this time in another 0-80). The third Dixon runner Gypsy Runner has the best recent form of the three, but is also entered in a 0-65 handicap here at the weekend. He races off 67 tomorrow, and Jack Duern rides tomorrow so definitely looks the yard third-string for this race to me.
Ulshaw Bride makes retutrn from a break with a 7lbs claimer booked who has only had 4 career rides in the UK. Hugo Palmer brings just Battered here but ha sbooked a jockey having his first ever public ride and the horse reappears after a break, looking badly on the downgrade.
That leaves Plastic Paddy Paddy who ran well behind Lammas last time, but is on a career high mark of 70, (having won a class 6 handicap at Newcastle off 7lbs lower in mid October), and Star of St James for Richard Fahey. This one has had two runs since a break, and they've both been very poor. However, that means he has come below his last winning mark of 72 achieved here a year ago., (albeit on the old Fibresand surface obviously). The horse though is three from ten at Southwell, with two further places here. Therefore I would not be surprised to see a much better run.
My selection is Star of St James e/w at a current best price of 25/1, in the hope that he can at least place, with a good chance if the front two in the market do bounce
Many punters now feel there is to much racing but my take is the opposite. We can reduce the work load by some form of race type specialization, and the more meetings then the greater the chance that the Odds Compilers will rick a price. So i like Saturdays and these days with the 4 day and 48 hr decs readily available there is no need for any bet decisions to be rushed.
MM - Considering they use the same jocks and most are now trained on something other than turf, I see no reason why you would not consider the meetings as suitable - the draw maybe unknow but we see every day draw stats proven wrong so ? whats ( generally there are some but even these are now being ironed out) the worth of them especially with the stewards looking to keep jockeys more in lanes - which will that be a good thing long term ? I think so but open to persuasion. Look for more and more new names making the frameMy own take on the AW is its all about the surface which even when same type can still vary from course to course. With this in mind when a new AW track opens or as per Southwell a surface change is implemented i wait a full year before actually betting on same. Some may feel this is OTT but it suits my thinking.
Morning Mick - is MM S SandhogMM - Can you explain - elaborate. ?