• Hi Guest Just in case you were not aware I wanted to highlight that you can now get a free 7 day trial of Horseracebase here.
    We have a lot of members who are existing users of Horseracebase so help is always available if needed, as well as dedicated section of the fourm here.
    Best Wishes
    AR

A short thread

Rev forecast lost

Scores 9/27 17.78pts

Tomorrow Hamilton 2.40 hochfield

My shortlist is hochfield, great esteem and Ben Lilly but though all have form support hochfield is best suited to conditions. Has won with OR 94, has won 2xC2 and 2xC3, GF 3 wins 1 place 8 runs, GF right-handed 2 wins 1 place 5 runs. This horse is striking while in winning form with its last race 4 days ago, multiple wins at 14f so has stamina for this 13f race. This horse doesn't need to improve and is considered the best horse in the race by the official handicapper which is always good as far as I'm concerned.

I've taken the 7/1 with a boost already

Good luck and stay well
 
Scores 9/28 16.78pts profit

Tomorrow Beverley 4.06 lockdown dream

My shortlist for this is Yankee stadium, still a maiden and no form support, jewel maker, would have been better left-handed and no form support, and the selection.
LD has won at double figure odds before and 1 wins 2 runs right-handed, has form support, has won at Beverley 10f on soft so has plenty of stamina and it is going to bucket down tomorrow so the softer the better, last winning mark 57 now 66 with a 3lb claim, trainer jockey combo 1/8, trainer not doing well but jockey 22% in last 21 days

I've had 11/1 with a boost already which I think is generous

Good luck and stay well
 
Today down royal 4.00 benruben

My shortlist for this is goulane chosen and the selection. GC was not easily swerved as doesn't need to improve and 1 win 1 run good right-handed, has won over further and if the rain comes suited by cut in the ground. It doesn't have form support so reluctantly swerved.

B almost twice the strike rate of GC, last winning mark 138 now 136 with a 3lb claim so no improvement necessary, has won over further with softer ground, has won a very decent prize so this race well inside its comfort zone, has form support and 1 win for 2 runs good right-handed.

I've taken the 5/1 with a boost and bog

I've also had a little double on B and lockdown dream, it would be a brilliant weekend if that came in but given I have about a 30% strike for races it's highly unlikely with a 9% chance, that said it would be a value bet.

Good luck and stay well
 
Benruben wins 4/1, lockdown dream stone last

Scores 10/30 19.78pts

Tomorrow valance daumont Kelso 3.25

My shortlist is miss Amelia and ballyvic both both without form support and the selection.

VDA strike rate 21%, last winning mark 112 now 117 so improvement necessary, won 16f good and also soft, won 2xC4, good left-handed 1 win from 2 runs, jockey only 6% but trainer 23% in last 21 days, has form support.

I've had 13/2 with a boost already

Good luck tomorrow and stay well
 
Thanks F Frontrunner and pete pete much appreciated

Valence daumont wins 6/1 by a nose, I'm happy with that!

Scores 11/31 25.78pts profit

Tomorrow Chester 1.45 lord riddiford

Wealth warning if it goes soft this bet is probably stuffed

LR strike rate 26%, last winning mark 98 now 90 so no improvement necessary, has form support, won over 5f std gf and good, won C1 3xC2 3xC3, trainer jockey combo 2/16 though trainer 14% and jockey 15% last 21 days, GS left-handed 1 place 2 runs, this horse last run on the aw with 103 OR, 75k C2 over 6f weakening final furlong. The trainer run the legs off this horse lto over a distance it has never won at which is good stamina inducing work. This horse should really be at the top of the handicap in this race as its aw OR is much bigger. Potentially 13 lbs well in.

I've already had 12/1 with a boost as I think that is generous

Good luck and stay well
 
Thanks Sean Sean , F Frontrunner and pete pete much appreciated

pete pete I'm just trying out the latest idea, no doubt it will go wrong eventually but I'm sticking to the idea to give it a decent try.

Lord riddiford NR

Tomorrow Chester 4.20 cleonte

My shortlist for this is eylsian flame, Grandmaster flash and the selection. All have form support and it's difficult to swerve the other two.

C strike rate lowest of the 3 at 11%, last winning mark 87 now 90 but has won with 105 in a conditions race so 15lbs of possible improvement, won 22f, 16f and 15f, won 2xC2 and C3, good or soft, has never run on GS, left-handed 1 win 2 runs, trainer jockey combo 18%, trainer 22%, jockey 21% in last 21 days, was beaten by EF 25/1 when C was 17/2 so the market supported C more. C has won over further in a C2 so has plenty of stamina

I've taken the 17/2 with a boost already

Good luck tomorrow and stay well
 
Cleonte lost
Scores 11/32 24.78pts profit

Today haydock 4.55 fortified bay

My shortlist for this race is senior citizen and the selection and SC is not easily swerved with 1 win 1 place 4 runs soft left-handed and form support but the going at haydock is testing and I think proven stamina is necessary hence the swerve.

FB strike rate 26%, last winning mark 125 now 127 and looking 3 races back it ran to a calculated 130 so 3 lbs well in, won 23f soft and also good, won 3xC3, soft left-handed 2 wins 2 places 6 runs, has form support, not been favourite in last but odds dropping and won 7/1 lto. When I looked at this horse it was 5/1 but has dropped in odds

I've taken the 7/2 with a boost which is a bit tight but is probably about right

Good luck today and stay well
 
Today Thirsk 7.05 furzig

My shortlist for this race is viceregent, breguet boy and the selection, V has no form support and BB has never tried the conditions left-handed though doesn't need to improve with its 3lb claim so was a tough swerve.

F strike rate 21%, last winning mark 97 now 81 and has been running of marks over 100 in aw C2s, plenty in hand, has form support, won at the course and over the distance, won C2, 2xC3 and 2xC4, good to soft left-handed 1 place from 3 runs, trainer 12% jockey 21% last 21 days but not won together in that period

I've had the 5/1 with a boost on this which given its class advantage I think is generous

I've also had a half bet on the double today but will not be counting that in my stats

Good luck and stay well
 
Today Ludlow 3.20 Calum gilhooley

My shortlist for this is glory and fortune, cotton end and the selection. CE doesn't have form support so an easy swerve. GAF is more difficult, has form support, good right handed 1 win from 2 runs, potentially 8lbs well in going by the lto race and won a C1 nhf race at Cheltenham but I think the selection is better so reluctantly swerved.

CG strike rate 43 %, has been favourite last 3 runs and converted 1 to a win, last winning mark 115 now 118 so not much improvement necessary, never tried right handed but 2 wins 1 place 4 runs on good, trainer jockey combo 25%, has won 22f to 17f on good so has stamina, has form support

have taken the 15/2 available

killarney 3.30 annexation

my shortlist for this is Jessie Evans and the selection. JE is another I'm relevantly swerving, going by last race 7lbs well in, good left handed 1 win 1run, form support, but I think the selection is better.

A 33% strike rate hurdles, going by last race 6lbs well in, form support, has won 16f good, good left handed 1 win 1 run, trainer jockey combo 13%, trainer 11%, jockey 13% in last 21 days, has won in last 3 runs converting a 6/1 to a win, I'm hoping Rachel Blackmore and Henry de bromhead have got this race sussed.

I've taken the 11/2 available

ive also had a cheeky fiver on the double

good luck and stay well
 
Neither of my horse's did anything

Scores 11/36 20.78pts profit

Tomorrow York 1.40 ilaraab

My shortlist for this race is shandoz which is a NR and the selection

I strike rate 83%, last winning mark 95 now 102, beat an OR 100 lto2 so little improvement necessary, won mainly 10f good and soft, won 3xC2, has a course win, good left-handed 2 wins 2 runs, has form support, trainer jockey combo 29% in last 21 days, super consistent.

I've taken the 5/1 with a boost which for a horse with 83% sr is incredible

Good luck and stay well
 
Thanks Larry Larry , pete pete and T tacker , very much appreciated.

Larry, I thought the trainer knew he had a good horse as ilaraab wasn't tried in a 3yo+ race to get the wfa advantage.

Ilaraab wins 7/2f. Scores 12/37 24.28pts profit

Tomorrow York 2.40 Irish admiral/fishable

IA strike rate 67%, won a novice lto with 95OR and still 95, not much to go on as wins at 9f and 7f on std , 2 races back ran at leopards town which with punchestown and fairyhouse I remember as being part of the Dublin circuit and G1 tracks, IA was third , previous run dundalk, and I can work out to be a 101 OR. Trainer jockey combo no wins but trainer 24% and jockey 17% in last 21 days. No form support but I can show to myself has 6lbs in hand.

F strike rate 25%, last winning mark 84 now 92, lto2 can show was 97 OR , has won twice 10f good but never tried good left-handed , good 2 wins, 1 place 4 runs, has form support, trainer jockey combo 14%, odds dropping over last 3 runs

I've taken the 11/2 with a boost on IA, 10/1 with a boost F

Good luck and stay well
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top