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7.50 newc

tacker

Colt
If anybody does fancy ETIKAAL tomorrow the 9/1 PP looks big in comparison to the other layers, more studying needed.
 
The favourite Merweb looks vulnerable with my initial checks.
7lb claimers (1-14), cheek-pieces (1-32), low draw (5) not ideal.
Draw (10) better for ETIKAAL.
 

tacker

Colt
ETIKAAL.......Has managed to win 2 of his last 3 and in my opinion was given a rather gentle ride lto, this is understandable now that he has gone up 10lb for those 2 wins. Back up to 7f today and well drawn in the sense that he can choose to come to the favoured near side i still think he is capable of winning from this mark of 69 but with these type of handicaps it very much comes down to whose trying on the day and to be honest who knows ?
The opposition fall into the same category in that a few could be up to going close on a going day but nothing stands out to me so my little bit ew 9/1 is fair enough but certainly no good thing.
 

mick

Sire
If anybody does fancy ETIKAAL tomorrow the 9/1 PP looks big in comparison to the other layers, more studying needed.
PP Also opened 3/1 Silver Dust when 8/1 was the general price, and this would have played a part in your above. Personally i think they are a rancid company but what i will give them currently is they are less lemming than most and this can create opportunities for us. Re the race i worked it and concluded no idea. Best off for Etikaal.
 
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tacker

Colt
PP Also opened 3/1 Pink Dust when 8/1 was the general price, and this would have played a part in your above. Personally i think they are a rancid company but what i will give them currently is they are less lemming than most and this can create opportunities for us. Re the race i worked it and concluded no idea. Best off for Etikaal.
I think what's happening here @mick is that because PP and BETFAIR have joined up the betting is all over the place, there's every reason to think that this works in favour of the small punter but anyone trying to take advantage of these anomalies with larger stakes will most likely be stopped.
 

mick

Sire
@tacker i agree all of your above. There are solutions but the shame of it being that the need is there in the first place. With all of those Odds Checker Bookmakers if you secure there price and its better than the SP they assume you are arbing (which is something i never do) and win or lose they do not like this, which i find hypocritical as they are constantly seeking to do the same themselves. !
 

tacker

Colt
Last night CHOSEN WORLD was around 14/1 but has been reduced all morning and now HUGH TAYLOR tips this horse up so 6/1 is the best price you can get. Sir hugh would have you believe that he keeps his selections to himself but this isn't the first time his tips have attracted money before they go online, not good imo.
 

mick

Sire
There was a member a couple of years ago who ran an interesting thread dedicated to taking on the Hugh Taylor tips with part of the reason being that they often provided value elsewhere in the race. No disrespect to Hugh but i liked the thinking. :)

 
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dave58

Administrator
There was a similar idea here a while back where you got up early to get his tip, back it, then wait for all his followers to jump on, then lay it for a guarenteed profit.
 

tacker

Colt
What happens is Sir Hugh tweets that his first tip will go on line in the next 5 mins, within a few seconds the odds change and quite often halve in odds, the difference this morning is that the 14/1 on offer last night had already gone and only 8/1 was on offer prior to the horse going online
. This obviously means the value isn't really there for the vast majority of punters and I'm guessing this horse will drift a little later.
 

Boots

Mare
I dont see how his tips have such power

Because he consistently makes a profit to his stakes. Last year was his worst since he became a tipster +100 ish points he normally goes for about 250.
The trial you highlighted was only a short term effort and can be ignored. I looked at his tips for about 9months several years ago and I found that you could improve things no end if you ignore the tips given in the bookies races and the better AW races.
 
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