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    Ark Royal
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  • Sorry for the ongoing issues that you may have been experiencing whilst using the forum lately

    It really is frustrating when the forum slows down or Server Error 500 pops up.

    Apparently the hosts acknowledge there is a problem.
    Thank you for using our services and sorry for the experienced delay!
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    I will have to investigate what the differences are with what We have know compared to the alternative service they want us to migrate to.
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    AR

5 fold season bet - best form of profit protection?

Not sure if this is the best place to put this but I'm new.

I've backed a 1,001/1 fivefold for a season bet. This entails:

- Inter (to finish top without Juve) 1.73
- Hull to win League 1 12.00
- Cheltenham to win League 2 15.00
- Wycombe to be relegated 1.66
- West Brom to be relegated 2.00

At the moment, the cash out stands at £576. If I hold out, the winnings are £3,500. I've looked at all the teams, their fixtures, their opponents fixtures etc and even though there's still a long way to go, I'm feeling cautiously optimistic about the bet.

However, I'd like to protect my profit at all costs. My initial stake was only a measly £3.50 so the profit is already brilliant if I cash out but I'd rather opt for the full amount, obviously.

I've looked into laying Hull and Cheltenham but the odds on that didn't really make sense to lay them.

Just looking for advice really. I am half tempted to do a few 'if it goes wrong' selections or back Lucky 15s to ensure I still come out with decent profit but just wondered what your thoughts are about what I should do here.

Thanks
 

retriever

Gelding
Nice problem to have. My advice would be to go and lock yourself in the cupboard under the stairs for a few months.

Inter looks 85-90% of the way there.
The relegations look 70-80%.
The problem ones, as you've noted, are Hull & Cheltenham - 50/50's

I think you need to give it a bit more time and watch the results of every game......also the team news for problems.
Personally, I would stop-loss this at £500 and move it up as/if results go your way........say use a 15% stop-loss.
There shouldn't be mad swings here and hopefully it will creep upwards towards the top amount.

The problem with 'if it goes wrong' bets is that you could get it wrong completely and lose out altogether.
Sometimes it's best to sit on your hands and not fiddle.

Good luck. Perhaps you could keep us updated here going forwards.
 
Nice problem to have. My advice would be to go and lock yourself in the cupboard under the stairs for a few months.

Inter looks 85-90% of the way there.
The relegations look 70-80%.
The problem ones, as you've noted, are Hull & Cheltenham - 50/50's

I think you need to give it a bit more time and watch the results of every game......also the team news for problems.
Personally, I would stop-loss this at £500 and move it up as/if results go your way........say use a 15% stop-loss.
There shouldn't be mad swings here and hopefully it will creep upwards towards the top amount.

The problem with 'if it goes wrong' bets is that you could get it wrong completely and lose out altogether.
Sometimes it's best to sit on your hands and not fiddle.

Good luck. Perhaps you could keep us updated here going forwards.

Thanks for your thoughts.

The stop-loss is a good idea and I think I'll follow that advice. Will definitely keep the thread updated!
 
Okay, so things have progressed well!

Cash out now stands at £1,870; just over half of what the accumulated return is.

Inter look home and dry - the bet states they're only to finish above Juve. Wycombe will go down this weekend, unless they overturn a 13 goal deficit and win the rest of their games whilst those around them lost the rest of their games = 99.9% done.

West Brom look to be nearly down; tough games against Arsenal and Liverpool, with West Ham - chasing a CL spot - still to play and games against Leeds and Wolves also in that run in. They're 9 points behind 17th placed Brighton, too.

Hull. They've got a nice 3 point gap over Peterborough with 2 games left. Hull go next to Wigan, who are 4 points above the bottom 4 so still something to play for but Northampton - who sit below Wigan - have Blackpool and Sunderland who are looking to cement their places in the play off's, with quite a few teams able to take advantage if either slip up. Charlton being one of those teams, who Hull go to on the final day. Second placed Peterborough tripped up last night against Doncaster and next host 3rd placed Lincoln; a win or draw for Posh will see them promoted. Failing to do so gives Lincoln, who have 3 games in hand, a bit more room to put pressure on them in the race for second. Peterborough then play Doncaster on the final day. It's not impossible for Hull to lose the title here with fixtures coming up against two teams that have something to play for but really, having seen how they've performed this season, they should see the job through. I'm pretty confident about this one.

The final selection - Cheltenham to win the league. This is where the money will be made or lost. Cheltenham have had plenty of opportunities to break away in recent weeks, whether that's been games in hand or those around them losing, but have always failed to capitalise. Last night, they pulled back from a goal down to equalise and be promoted. They currently sit top on 79, Cambridge second with 77 and Bolton third with 76. They go next to Newport, who won 4-0 last night and are looking to rubberstamp their place in a play off group that a few teams around them can get into if Newport drop points. Cheltenham then go to Harrogate in the final game of the season, who are on a poor run of form. Cambridge go to Harrogate on Friday night, knowing a win will certainly see them promoted and a draw will see it done but for a 15 goal swing between and Morecambe in 4th. They finish the season at already relegated Grimsby. Bolton, meanwhile, host play-off chasing Exeter, knowing a Bolton win sees them promoted. They finish the season against middle of the road Crawley, who have nothing to play for.

I'm umming and ahhing about what to do so I'm seeking advice. The cash out is really my last option; I hate giving the bookies the satisfaction that they've cut their losses. Yet I simply can't trust Cheltenham after their form in recent weeks and the fixtures Hull have could trip me up too.

So I'm looking at lumping against my bet, to cover myself.

So far I've found:
Cheltenham to win the league @ 9/2
Pboro to win the league @8/1
Bolton to win the league @ 14/1

I don't like mentioning stakes etc but I think in this case, it's warranted.

My idea is as follows:
£200 on Cambridge returns £700
£50 on Bolton returns £750
£70 on Pboro returns £630

This way, I'm staking £320 on all the other permutations but even if only Pboro win, I'm £330 up as a minimum. If any of the League 2 teams win their league, that obviously increases. I can afford to go slightly bigger on the stakes if necessary. If none of the above win and things stay the same, I still win the £3,650.

Thoughts and advice, please.
 

retriever

Gelding
Well, this has been going good M MertensInsigneCallejon .......Cash-out has more than trebled......well done.

I can understand how jumpy you are feeling and I don't think anyone would want to advise you what to do. Obviously, at the end of the day, it's your decision and you have to stand up to it.

I will suggest another option though.
I see that you say you would be 'happy' with a bottom line of £330 as a minimum.
How about having £1500 or £1600 as a minimum?

Cash-out the £1870 and spend £370 ( or £270 ) on the bets you advised above.

I know that doesn't make sense from the potential £3650 you could win, but if you cannot let it run without not doing something, then this way, you could still have one over the bookie by profiting from a 'failed' accumulator - should it do so.
Sometimes you just have to act like a 'trader' and not a 'gambler' - which from the above, I see you are seeking to do.
 
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