5 Day Returners
- Thread starter TonCon
- Start date
Some very interesting stuff from everybody!
As said above, I feel this method may have been overplayed now; certainly, it was always on flatstats years ago.
I may have mentioned that I was waiting for one to come out again in four days, after what I took to be a good second at a price.
It didn't. That makes me more determined to back it next time I see it entered.
In this particular case, I feel the trainer "doubled booked" it in two close races, just in case one of the races was scrubbed by the weather.
Imo, I think trainers like a certain amount of prep races. Hopefully, they are targeting a really good race later in the summer, but need the quota leading up to it.
We live in hope in this game.
Finally, I never forget, years ago at Wolverhampton, Dave Evans ' runner had not run as I and the market expected. I asked him what the hell was up. It was a saturday afternoon.
He said " don't worry, he'll win at Southwell on monday". And he did.
What does that indicate, if anything?
I still don't know, all these years later.
As said above, I feel this method may have been overplayed now; certainly, it was always on flatstats years ago.
I may have mentioned that I was waiting for one to come out again in four days, after what I took to be a good second at a price.
It didn't. That makes me more determined to back it next time I see it entered.
In this particular case, I feel the trainer "doubled booked" it in two close races, just in case one of the races was scrubbed by the weather.
Imo, I think trainers like a certain amount of prep races. Hopefully, they are targeting a really good race later in the summer, but need the quota leading up to it.
We live in hope in this game.
Finally, I never forget, years ago at Wolverhampton, Dave Evans ' runner had not run as I and the market expected. I asked him what the hell was up. It was a saturday afternoon.
He said " don't worry, he'll win at Southwell on monday". And he did.
What does that indicate, if anything?
I still don't know, all these years later.
0/12
A 13/8 Fav out of the frame (5th of 6) and the other plumb last. Cosmic results to date....
0/14
Frontrunner
Stallion
Hi
T
TonCon, just been looking at your system and I think it has just been a bit unfortunate that it is going through one of its longest losing runs while you are testing it. It’s on a losing run of 41 now, only 6 previous occasions in last 18 years it has had a losing run of over 40, good news maybe is that only twice losing run has gone over 45, longest one being 57, so hopefully this particular losing run will end soon.
I have been trying to see why it is doing so badly this season, and I think weather may have something to do with this. It has been unusually wet for this time of year, normally you would expect good to firm going in May and this time we are getting soft going. I don’t think it is a coincidence that system also did particularly badly in 2014, another year when we had unusual weather and a very wet month of May. And I have checked for other instances of unusual weather and it seems to do badly then too. It’s not that it doesn’t work well on soft going, it’s just wrong going at wrong time of year. In October for example, it actually does well on soft because that’s the expected going and it does badly in years when we had dry October and good to firm going. I don’t think this is a unique problem for your system, I think it probably applies to a lot of other systems too. Trainers have plans for their horses for particular times of year, and when you get weather that is not expected, it must throw those plans.
That’s my take on it, I also feel it can be improved by using another filter, but I understand you don’t want to use too many filters. Best of luck for a turnaround.
I have been trying to see why it is doing so badly this season, and I think weather may have something to do with this. It has been unusually wet for this time of year, normally you would expect good to firm going in May and this time we are getting soft going. I don’t think it is a coincidence that system also did particularly badly in 2014, another year when we had unusual weather and a very wet month of May. And I have checked for other instances of unusual weather and it seems to do badly then too. It’s not that it doesn’t work well on soft going, it’s just wrong going at wrong time of year. In October for example, it actually does well on soft because that’s the expected going and it does badly in years when we had dry October and good to firm going. I don’t think this is a unique problem for your system, I think it probably applies to a lot of other systems too. Trainers have plans for their horses for particular times of year, and when you get weather that is not expected, it must throw those plans.
That’s my take on it, I also feel it can be improved by using another filter, but I understand you don’t want to use too many filters. Best of luck for a turnaround.
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Many thanks F Frontrunner. You may well be right as I would have expected a historically 'proven' method to have performed much better than it has over the period it's been running.
The results during April - which was very dry - would seem to reinforce your theory about the going. Hopefully with some decent weather coming we might see a big difference in results.
You mention a further filter, I would be very interested in what it is and how you think it might improve results. I certainly wouldn't mind running the two methods concurrently so we can compare results.
Thanks again.
Frontrunner
Stallion
God knows...but I don't !!Not directly related, but, Boardman wins three times in a month for Tim Easterby.
Is it pedigree ( Kingman), training, trainer intent and good placing, or none of these?
What factors are important here?
1/15
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pete
Sire
Thanks
pete, I didn't know that. Much appreciated.Frontrunner
Stallion
I would say he is just a progressive horse. It seems he always had the ability as was rated 90 when coming over from France, but for whatever reason hadn’t put it to good use. Easterby got a bargain, and seems to have found the key to this horse and just letting him run while he is on a roll.Not directly related, but, Boardman wins three times in a month for Tim Easterby.
Is it pedigree ( Kingman), training, trainer intent and good placing, or none of these?
What factors are important here?
Frontrunner
Stallion
Hi T TonCon, I am sorry, I seem to have got it wrong. For some reason I thought you were only looking at horses that finished in first 6 on their last run, just went back and checked your original post and it is last two runs, my mistake. So you can ignore the longest losing runs I mentioned above, but rest of it should still be valid. Also, I know that you dropped those that had won last time from the system, I just realised that you also seem to have dropped those that finished 2nd.
So am I correct that your current system criteria is that horse must be running within 5 days of last run, on turf flat in UK, last two runs must have also been on turf flat and must have finished 3rd to 6th on both those runs?
Anyway the filter I am suggesting is to only include trainers who have a good strike rate with quick returners. I have set it at trainers with minimum 20% strike rate with quick returners. It does cut out a lot of the bets and you might miss out on many winners but it does show a good ROI of 24.5% at SP over a long period of 18 years and 1.24 A/E and 3.97 chi, and also cuts out long losing runs, longest one being 18 since 2003. Problem is you will have long waits before there is a qualifier, there has only been one qualifier so far this season which lost.
The system as stands is :
Flat Turf Handicaps
Last run within 5 days
Placed 3rd - 6th LTO (only last run counts)
That's it.
F
Frontrunner,
Thank you for your reply about Boardman - Tim Easterby's horse that won three times in this month of May.
I'm still mulling over the "key"to this ability to maintain winning form over short intervals.
That must be what we want in any runner that returns in five days.
You made the point that Easterby had got a bargain from France and obtained a highly-rated animal (90).
Maybe that's what we need in these here 5 day returners?
Btw, that rating you mentioned: is it a BHA rating?
Thank you for your reply about Boardman - Tim Easterby's horse that won three times in this month of May.
I'm still mulling over the "key"to this ability to maintain winning form over short intervals.
That must be what we want in any runner that returns in five days.
You made the point that Easterby had got a bargain from France and obtained a highly-rated animal (90).
Maybe that's what we need in these here 5 day returners?
Btw, that rating you mentioned: is it a BHA rating?
Frontrunner
Stallion
Ok cheers, so I had it right first time. Applying the trainer win rate filter to this improves it also but not by as much, A/E of 1.09 with the filter.