Kempton 5.45 Vina Bay . Currently 100/30
This is a strong 0-80, but I'm struggling to see why Mutahanisais so short. She is clearly improving, but the proximity of River Wharfe does concern me, plus I'm not certain the step up at this track will suit. She will be backed, so makes VB a possible drifter, with other dangers in the race.
I've mentioned this horse a few times on here with regard to horses that finished behind him lto. The horse was entered in a 0-70 at the weekend, which appeared much easier than this contest, but it was over an extra 4f,
Even though he holds an old Derby entry, I can't think of many horses with such a differential in distance for an unexposd horse.
The horse was clearly the best horse in the race and certainly needs further, but this track should at least see him getting into a rhythm far earlier.
Whilst he was raised 7lb, the 2nd was raised 6lb and won off that mark nto and is now rated 8lb higher than Vina Bay.
Vina Bay's half sister was useless and sold out of the Stoute stable last backend for 5k, but my expectations here are farly limited and a run to 77 seems feasible, even with concerns about the trip.
The way i use and view stats is to attempt to look behind them and find racing reason to support what they may be saying. Often this is not possible but still worth trying on balance because sometimes this will help give confidence to bet against what appears to be a negative one. The problem...www.theukbettingforum.co.uk
Well done doomster and well desrved