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Sorry for the ongoing issues that you may have been experiencing whilst using the forum lately It really is frustrating when the forum slows down or Server Error 500 pops up. Apparently the hosts acknowledge there is a problem. Thank you for using our services and sorry for the experienced delay! Unfortunately, these errors are due to a higher server load. Our senior department knows about the issue and they are working towards a permanent resolution of the issue, however, I'd advise you to consider using our new cPanel cloud solutions: https://www.tsohost.com/web-hosting I will have to investigate what the differences are with what We have know compared to the alternative service they want us to migrate to. Keep safe. AR
3 Year Olds
- Thread starter markfinn
- Start date
pete
Dam
Brilliant case made and well deserved result.
doomster
Dam
Kempton 5.45 Vina Bay . Currently 100/30
This is a strong 0-80, but I'm struggling to see why Mutahanisais so short. She is clearly improving, but the proximity of River Wharfe does concern me, plus I'm not certain the step up at this track will suit. She will be backed, so makes VB a possible drifter, with other dangers in the race.
I've mentioned this horse a few times on here with regard to horses that finished behind him lto. The horse was entered in a 0-70 at the weekend, which appeared much easier than this contest, but it was over an extra 4f,
Even though he holds an old Derby entry, I can't think of many horses with such a differential in distance for an unexposd horse.
The horse was clearly the best horse in the race and certainly needs further, but this track should at least see him getting into a rhythm far earlier.
Whilst he was raised 7lb, the 2nd was raised 6lb and won off that mark nto and is now rated 8lb higher than Vina Bay.
Vina Bay's half sister was useless and sold out of the Stoute stable last backend for 5k, but my expectations here are farly limited and a run to 77 seems feasible, even with concerns about the trip.
www.theukbettingforum.co.uk
This is a strong 0-80, but I'm struggling to see why Mutahanisais so short. She is clearly improving, but the proximity of River Wharfe does concern me, plus I'm not certain the step up at this track will suit. She will be backed, so makes VB a possible drifter, with other dangers in the race.
I've mentioned this horse a few times on here with regard to horses that finished behind him lto. The horse was entered in a 0-70 at the weekend, which appeared much easier than this contest, but it was over an extra 4f,
Even though he holds an old Derby entry, I can't think of many horses with such a differential in distance for an unexposd horse.
The horse was clearly the best horse in the race and certainly needs further, but this track should at least see him getting into a rhythm far earlier.
Whilst he was raised 7lb, the 2nd was raised 6lb and won off that mark nto and is now rated 8lb higher than Vina Bay.
Vina Bay's half sister was useless and sold out of the Stoute stable last backend for 5k, but my expectations here are farly limited and a run to 77 seems feasible, even with concerns about the trip.
Stats based Guesses
The way i use and view stats is to attempt to look behind them and find racing reason to support what they may be saying. Often this is not possible but still worth trying on balance because sometimes this will help give confidence to bet against what appears to be a negative one. The problem...
www.theukbettingforum.co.uk
Chesham
Sire
Last edited:
Hi
doomster , I think we've managed to miss each other with this VINA BAY but the points you make IT'S A LOVE THING being rated 8lb higher demonstrates the advantage we have over the handicapper having to react in the moment so to speak. VINA BAY is clearly a better horse and i would be surprised if he wasn't running off a 80+ mark in the near future, it's likely this horse will be at his best over 10f but today's mile should be ok providing there's a proper pace to run at (I can't see much if any pace here).
I suspect that the reason MUTAHAMISA is fav is because of Varian and form figures of 121 but a mark of 81 looks plenty enough to me for what she's done even though the 3lb claim will help, agree that River Wharfe does little for the form but then again Desert Boots a little more.
ILLUSTRATOR battled his way to a newc 7f win off a mark of 73, up 5lbs can benefit from the extra furlong today and while his previous form his questionable via a link between BABA REZA & FAYATHAAN I wouldn't dismiss simply because these are young improving horses and i suppose BABAJAN having already won a couple of cl4 handicaps will also come in for support.
Conclusion... VINA BAY for me but just worry about the race turning into a sprint.
doomster , I think we've managed to miss each other with this VINA BAY but the points you make IT'S A LOVE THING being rated 8lb higher demonstrates the advantage we have over the handicapper having to react in the moment so to speak. VINA BAY is clearly a better horse and i would be surprised if he wasn't running off a 80+ mark in the near future, it's likely this horse will be at his best over 10f but today's mile should be ok providing there's a proper pace to run at (I can't see much if any pace here).I suspect that the reason MUTAHAMISA is fav is because of Varian and form figures of 121 but a mark of 81 looks plenty enough to me for what she's done even though the 3lb claim will help, agree that River Wharfe does little for the form but then again Desert Boots a little more.
ILLUSTRATOR battled his way to a newc 7f win off a mark of 73, up 5lbs can benefit from the extra furlong today and while his previous form his questionable via a link between BABA REZA & FAYATHAAN I wouldn't dismiss simply because these are young improving horses and i suppose BABAJAN having already won a couple of cl4 handicaps will also come in for support.
Conclusion... VINA BAY for me but just worry about the race turning into a sprint.
Frontrunner
Colt
Chesham
Sire
Kempton 5.45 Vina Bay . Currently 100/30
This is a strong 0-80, but I'm struggling to see why Mutahanisais so short. She is clearly improving, but the proximity of River Wharfe does concern me, plus I'm not certain the step up at this track will suit. She will be backed, so makes VB a possible drifter, with other dangers in the race.
I've mentioned this horse a few times on here with regard to horses that finished behind him lto. The horse was entered in a 0-70 at the weekend, which appeared much easier than this contest, but it was over an extra 4f,
Even though he holds an old Derby entry, I can't think of many horses with such a differential in distance for an unexposd horse.
The horse was clearly the best horse in the race and certainly needs further, but this track should at least see him getting into a rhythm far earlier.
Whilst he was raised 7lb, the 2nd was raised 6lb and won off that mark nto and is now rated 8lb higher than Vina Bay.
Vina Bay's half sister was useless and sold out of the Stoute stable last backend for 5k, but my expectations here are farly limited and a run to 77 seems feasible, even with concerns about the trip.
Stats based Guesses
The way i use and view stats is to attempt to look behind them and find racing reason to support what they may be saying. Often this is not possible but still worth trying on balance because sometimes this will help give confidence to bet against what appears to be a negative one. The problem...
Well done
doomster and well desrved