-
Hi Guest, The forum will be moving hosts on 26 July and as such will be closed from Midday until the move has completed. As we will be with new hosts it may take a while before DNS get updated so it could take while before you can get back on the forum. I think it will take at least 4 hours but could easily be 48! Ark Royal
-
Hi Guest Just in case you were not aware I wanted to highlight that you can now get a 20% discount on Inform Racing. Simply enter the coupon code ukbettingform when subscribing here. We have a lot of members who are existing users of Inform Racing so help is always available if needed. Best Wishes AR
-
Sorry for the ongoing issues that you may have been experiencing whilst using the forum lately It really is frustrating when the forum slows down or Server Error 500 pops up. Apparently the hosts acknowledge there is a problem. Thank you for using our services and sorry for the experienced delay! Unfortunately, these errors are due to a higher server load. Our senior department knows about the issue and they are working towards a permanent resolution of the issue, however, I'd advise you to consider using our new cPanel cloud solutions: https://www.tsohost.com/web-hosting I will have to investigate what the differences are with what We have know compared to the alternative service they want us to migrate to. Keep safe. AR
3 Year Olds
- Thread starter markfinn
- Start date
markfinn
Sire
Ran badly considering the odds - well swerved
Seems an age since we doing these races, looking forward to the new season to get 3yrs olds going again
doomster
Dam
I will be looking for a few that have gone through the sales
markfinn
The 11.45 has got my interest, as I thought 3.8 for Damned Elusive was generous, although the jockey is major concern with a s/r of 2/68 in h/caps using his 7lb claim.
Taking out the jock issue there is an awful lot of collateral form for a 6 runner race, through the Johnson improver Coupe De Champagne.
DE holds all of them over shorter trips in my view . Red Right Sand did beat the the yardstick mentioned CDC, who has been raised 10lb since meeting Damned Elusive, but I'm not convinced CDC ran to her best form in that race and was eased at the end and RLS was pushed out.
The only horse ironically that has no collateral form is the Johnson horse making it's h/cap debut. Didn't make it's 2yo debut until the autumn and gelded after last run, no surprise to see improvement but not enough for me to pass over Damned Elusive.
The step up 2f looks perfect for DE, not only based on last run, but half sister had a similar late 2 yo campaign ( same breeder/owner/ trainer) and picked up a 2 mile Ascot h/cap on 5th run off 82, last year. Rated 91 now she has been sold to a jumps trainer.
Damned Elusive will need further through the season I'd guess but late February is early enough to catch the horse distance wise for me.
No complaints re the jockey win or lose, but eve with 5 opponents, he needs to get an early pitch from stall 1.
She got a wide run lto when beaten by Coupe De Champagne, who as usual for a MJ runner let from the start. CDC accelerated 3f out, when DE had to slow to cope with the wide turn.
Fingers crossed for a better run.
markfinn The 11.45 has got my interest, as I thought 3.8 for Damned Elusive was generous, although the jockey is major concern with a s/r of 2/68 in h/caps using his 7lb claim.
Taking out the jock issue there is an awful lot of collateral form for a 6 runner race, through the Johnson improver Coupe De Champagne.
DE holds all of them over shorter trips in my view . Red Right Sand did beat the the yardstick mentioned CDC, who has been raised 10lb since meeting Damned Elusive, but I'm not convinced CDC ran to her best form in that race and was eased at the end and RLS was pushed out.
The only horse ironically that has no collateral form is the Johnson horse making it's h/cap debut. Didn't make it's 2yo debut until the autumn and gelded after last run, no surprise to see improvement but not enough for me to pass over Damned Elusive.
The step up 2f looks perfect for DE, not only based on last run, but half sister had a similar late 2 yo campaign ( same breeder/owner/ trainer) and picked up a 2 mile Ascot h/cap on 5th run off 82, last year. Rated 91 now she has been sold to a jumps trainer.
Damned Elusive will need further through the season I'd guess but late February is early enough to catch the horse distance wise for me.
No complaints re the jockey win or lose, but eve with 5 opponents, he needs to get an early pitch from stall 1.
She got a wide run lto when beaten by Coupe De Champagne, who as usual for a MJ runner let from the start. CDC accelerated 3f out, when DE had to slow to cope with the wide turn.
Fingers crossed for a better run.
markfinn
Sire
Great post and best of with the bet if do go in - I note Balding is sticking with the Jockey and he has cost me twice in the last fortnight , but Balding is in form - Johnson - Burke - Hannon alsoI will be looking for a few that have gone through the sales
The 11.45 has got my interest, as I thought 3.8 for Damned Elusive was generous, although the jockey is major concern with a s/r of 2/68 in h/caps using his 7lb claim.
Taking out the jock issue there is an awful lot of collateral form for a 6 runner race, through the Johnson improver Coupe De Champagne.
DE holds all of them over shorter trips in my view . Red Right Sand did beat the the yardstick mentioned CDC, who has been raised 10lb since meeting Damned Elusive, but I'm not convinced CDC ran to her best form in that race and was eased at the end and RLS was pushed out.
The only horse ironically that has no collateral form is the Johnson horse making it's h/cap debut. Didn't make it's 2yo debut until the autumn and gelded after last run, no surprise to see improvement but not enough for me to pass over Damned Elusive.
The step up 2f looks perfect for DE, not only based on last run, but half sister had a similar late 2 yo campaign ( same breeder/owner/ trainer) and picked up a 2 mile Ascot h/cap on 5th run off 82, last year. Rated 91 now she has been sold to a jumps trainer.
Damned Elusive will need further through the season I'd guess but late February is early enough to catch the horse distance wise for me.
No complaints re the jockey win or lose, but eve with 5 opponents, he needs to get an early pitch from stall 1.
She got a wide run lto when beaten by Coupe De Champagne, who as usual for a MJ runner let from the start. CDC accelerated 3f out, when DE had to slow to cope with the wide turn.
Fingers crossed for a better run.
Burkes horse trained and owned - has the recorded speed and the race is full of pace note they are 270 miles from home - which is not the ideal - no prev winners in the race and all have a claims - need some cover
Frontrunner
Colt
pete
Dam
doomster
Dam
Wolver Enaitchess @ 9/1
The fav takes up 30% of the book and looks worth taking on IMO.
A Gosden h/c debutant, but at class 6 level I'm generally happy to take on the few he actually runs at this level, even if Havlin does travel for the ride.
Even though she led lto over 7f, the 1 still really means they will have to force matters from the start, as I can't see them risking getting stuck in behind.
Nozieres looks consistent at a low level, but stall 11 is a killer. She finished 2nd lto from a wide draw at Lingfield, but the race fell into the hands of the hold ups.
Split Elevens is only 3lb higher than winning a nursery, but it was a bad C6 with an average OR of 53.
Accrington Stanley has to be of interest is fully wound up. Decent runs in a fair races lto for grade in December, the problem looks to be the track, as he will need the leaders to over-do the early pace and he could easily run into trouble.
I would have preferred a wider draw for Enaitchess or even a return to a C6 h/c at Kempton, but although I'd expect her to find a little more improvement, what she has achieved to date looks to give her a dcent chance.
They somehow managed to get a 4lb hike for getting beat 4 lths here on 3rd run, finishing behind a 150/1 shot. The 1st and 2nd are now drawn 82 & 80 but there was no depth to the race.
She did break ok and travel well early on, but ran green in the straight.
She had a wind op afterwards and reappearred off a break in an auction maiden from stall 1 at Lingfield. She ran ok in a moderate race, considering it was a rails run the whole way round and the extra 1f probably went against her.
She returned to Lingfield 2 weeks later and showed improvement off 65, although slowly away, by design from stall 1 again, she travelled ok and only faded to finish 3 rd in the final 100 yards, beating Splits Elens by 2 lths plus. It was stall moderate stuff bordering on C7 grade, but she did improve.
Her chances tomorrow hinge on what she actually achieved lto in a C5 at Kempton. Decent grade race were she was the lowest rated runner off 65 in a 0-76, she finished 3rd at 18/1. It's yet to show how strong the race is, but the winner was 4lb well in off a penalty and been raised 7lb.
The 2nd under- performed nto at Newcastle on saturday, but anything trying to make all at that track, especially into a head wind, can be forgiven.
The 5th Dashing dick makes me think it was a standard C5 grade race. He was dropped a lb for that run then ran again to finish 3rd and been kept on 73.
The big upside for me was she broke well got a decent position tracking the winner/ leader. When her chance had gone she still stayed on. The better quality horses behind her had no excuses.
Enaitchess is the only horse that interests me here and currently double figs on the exchange makes her a fair bet.
The Gosden runner makes the market and I'm betting on this being her last run before going off to the stud, although Southwell could be her last chance saloon option. The mare has produced 7 other runners and all needed further than todays 6f. Prescott got the duffers, but I hope Gosden has been lumbered with one
The fav takes up 30% of the book and looks worth taking on IMO.
A Gosden h/c debutant, but at class 6 level I'm generally happy to take on the few he actually runs at this level, even if Havlin does travel for the ride.
Even though she led lto over 7f, the 1 still really means they will have to force matters from the start, as I can't see them risking getting stuck in behind.
Nozieres looks consistent at a low level, but stall 11 is a killer. She finished 2nd lto from a wide draw at Lingfield, but the race fell into the hands of the hold ups.
Split Elevens is only 3lb higher than winning a nursery, but it was a bad C6 with an average OR of 53.
Accrington Stanley has to be of interest is fully wound up. Decent runs in a fair races lto for grade in December, the problem looks to be the track, as he will need the leaders to over-do the early pace and he could easily run into trouble.
I would have preferred a wider draw for Enaitchess or even a return to a C6 h/c at Kempton, but although I'd expect her to find a little more improvement, what she has achieved to date looks to give her a dcent chance.
They somehow managed to get a 4lb hike for getting beat 4 lths here on 3rd run, finishing behind a 150/1 shot. The 1st and 2nd are now drawn 82 & 80 but there was no depth to the race.
She did break ok and travel well early on, but ran green in the straight.
She had a wind op afterwards and reappearred off a break in an auction maiden from stall 1 at Lingfield. She ran ok in a moderate race, considering it was a rails run the whole way round and the extra 1f probably went against her.
She returned to Lingfield 2 weeks later and showed improvement off 65, although slowly away, by design from stall 1 again, she travelled ok and only faded to finish 3 rd in the final 100 yards, beating Splits Elens by 2 lths plus. It was stall moderate stuff bordering on C7 grade, but she did improve.
Her chances tomorrow hinge on what she actually achieved lto in a C5 at Kempton. Decent grade race were she was the lowest rated runner off 65 in a 0-76, she finished 3rd at 18/1. It's yet to show how strong the race is, but the winner was 4lb well in off a penalty and been raised 7lb.
The 2nd under- performed nto at Newcastle on saturday, but anything trying to make all at that track, especially into a head wind, can be forgiven.
The 5th Dashing dick makes me think it was a standard C5 grade race. He was dropped a lb for that run then ran again to finish 3rd and been kept on 73.
The big upside for me was she broke well got a decent position tracking the winner/ leader. When her chance had gone she still stayed on. The better quality horses behind her had no excuses.
Enaitchess is the only horse that interests me here and currently double figs on the exchange makes her a fair bet.
The Gosden runner makes the market and I'm betting on this being her last run before going off to the stud, although Southwell could be her last chance saloon option. The mare has produced 7 other runners and all needed further than todays 6f. Prescott got the duffers, but I hope Gosden has been lumbered with one
markfinn
Sire
has the magic proform stat of Top speed LTO - actually 6 points clear of nearest rival - which is a lot -sure to be of interest to those lads - Good luck - nice write up - great knowledge of the current form - draw looks ok given her speed
That's a really good post
doomster , demonstrates just why you are doing so well and getting the results that your work deserves.
When you scrutinise the form on these type of 3yr old handicaps it is possible to find whatever you want to see, where UNDER WRAPS is concerned you can find horses with higher numbers than the 64 rating she has today in front and behind her, on the otherhand you can pick out bits of form that are somewhat negative. On balance over wolves 6f i think UW is a few pounds better than 64, maybe 70 and i would also think the number 1 draw is a positive, certainly better than being drawn out wide, to be honest i think she is a worthy fav but most probably 9/4 isn't great value just fair. good luck.
doomster , demonstrates just why you are doing so well and getting the results that your work deserves.When you scrutinise the form on these type of 3yr old handicaps it is possible to find whatever you want to see, where UNDER WRAPS is concerned you can find horses with higher numbers than the 64 rating she has today in front and behind her, on the otherhand you can pick out bits of form that are somewhat negative. On balance over wolves 6f i think UW is a few pounds better than 64, maybe 70 and i would also think the number 1 draw is a positive, certainly better than being drawn out wide, to be honest i think she is a worthy fav but most probably 9/4 isn't great value just fair. good luck.
Exactly! Havlin will surely try and jump out quickly but if something goes quicker all the better to sit close until the straight, it's what we see everyday.
markfinn
Sire
This conversation takes me back to some recent research, I was looking at trying to identify best jockeys for the correct circumstances -
Frontrunner
Colt
