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3 lowest lto SPs

Thanks @rave154 , still making a loss but a great improvement. Could I add a further restriction? Please only do this when you have a few free minutes and don't have something better to do. Do you have a betting forecast? If so please ignore any horse not in the first 6 and equals. That is if the 6th horse and 7th have the same odds in the betting forecast include the 7th. I'm very grateful for the effort you have gone to so thank you very much.

Summary after a double losing day

Lowest
Races 24
Bets 24
Wins 7 SR 29.17%
P/L +15.60
Yield +65.00%
1% daily ratchet +16.13

3 lowest
Races 24
Bets 71
Wins 13 SR 54.17%
P/L +6.10
Yield +8.59%
1% daily ratchet +5.83

Good luck with Cheltenham tomorrow
 
Hello all,

Cheltenham 2.10
Mr adjudicator *
Capitaine
Monsieur lecoq

Cheltenham 4.50
Magic saint
What's wrong with you
Brelan das * 3rd 8/1

Good luck today
 
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Thanks @rave154 , still making a loss but a great improvement. Could I add a further restriction? Please only do this when you have a few free minutes and don't have something better to do. Do you have a betting forecast? If so please ignore any horse not in the first 6 and equals. That is if the 6th horse and 7th have the same odds in the betting forecast include the 7th. I'm very grateful for the effort you have gone to so thank you very much.

Summary after a double losing day

Lowest
Races 24
Bets 24
Wins 7 SR 29.17%
P/L +15.60
Yield +65.00%
1% daily ratchet +16.13

3 lowest
Races 24
Bets 71
Wins 13 SR 54.17%
P/L +6.10
Yield +8.59%
1% daily ratchet +5.83

Good luck with Cheltenham tomorrow


Hi Hedgehog,

unfortunately i do not have forecasts, all my data is as-is in the Racing post results,

thus i have starting prices for each race, shall i use these instead?

cheers
 
Re Hedgehog...

IF i do use starting prices instead of forecast price...


do you want me to eliminate runners 7th or worse in prices

BEFORE we rank them for their lto price_ratio.....or.......after we have ranked the whole field?
 
for Hedgehog,


here are the results, HCAPs, 6-14 runners, flat only, no 3yo only races until septemeber onwards, > 10K prize fund,

1995 > 2000

3 lowest price_Ratio from LTO,

eliminating runners priced 7th or worse BEFORE ranking the ratings(price ratios lto)

ranked according to price_rank in "todays" race ( race to be contested)

columns, from left to right...

price_Rank in todays race,
profit/loss
wins - runs,
win%
profit% ( as a % of total bets )

1 -15.20 155 - 637 24.33 -2.39
2 -40.96 89 - 523 17.02 -7.83
3 -66.50 53 - 430 12.33 -15.47
4 -56.00 43 - 381 11.29 -14.70
5 -94.00 30 - 366 8.20 -25.68
6 -147.00 14 - 292 4.79 -50.34

interesting, only a 2.39% loss for fav's.....and a steady increase in loss as you move up in price_Rank in todays race

please note, these results are FLAT only.......thus if a horse had a good price_Ratio lto in a "non flat race"
then it would not show up in these results......i can do this however........if you require

p.s if anybody knows hwo to get these results to "tabulate" properly in here,.....pleeeeeease let me know ! lol
 
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for hedgehog,

same results as above......but NOT eliminating horses ranked 7th or above

you can do this by simply ignoring the rows that start with a 7 or more in the left hand column

1 -27.78 133 - 548 24.27 -5.07
2 -48.79 70 - 420 16.67 -11.62
3 -71.50 39 - 336 11.61 -21.28
4 -38.50 35 - 302 11.59 -12.75
5 -106.00 20 - 281 7.12 -37.72
6 -99.00 13 - 233 5.58 -42.49
7 -51.00 9 - 167 5.39 -30.54
8 5.00 9 - 125 7.20 4.00
9 -38.00 3 - 81 3.70 -46.91
10 -53.00 1 - 70 1.43 -75.71
11 -26.00 1 - 47 2.13 -55.32
12 0.00 1 - 15 6.67 0.00
13 -15.00 0 - 15 0.00 -100.00
14 -4.00 0 - 4 0.00 -100.00


notice, for favs....we have a 5% Loss t his time ( twice as much ) and also for the
other horses as their price rank rises, 2nd fav, 3rd fav....etc..... the profit % figures
dont have that steady progession as they do in the figures when we eliminate(7th or more)
BEFORE ranking

i hope this helps,

dont hesitate to ask for more
 
Hi @rave154

Is there a reason why you are running the research from 1995 to 2000 ? And not more recent samples

Hi Chesham,

only to avoid 2001, in as much as doing a 2000 > 2005 ( which would include 2001 )
as it seems from my questions about that year that it was a bad year re equine flu & new race courses etc

i can of course do 2000 > 2012 ( minus 2001 ) if that is required
 
Hi @rave154

I would try the last 5 years as quite a few things have changed. Trainers can enter horses in Handicaps if they are rated up to 2 LB over the Hmdicap Limit. Ie 0-70 a trainer can now enter a horse Rated 72
 
Thank you very much @rave154, again an improvement but still negative roi so still dispiriting.

Thank you again for your efforts, they are much appreciated.

Summary after a double losing day

Lowest
Races 26
Bets 26
Wins 7 SR 26.92%
P/L +13.60
Yield +52.31%
1% daily ratchet +13.69

3 lowest
Races 26
Bets 77
Wins 13 SR 50.00%
P/L +0.10
Yield +0.13%
1% daily ratchet -1.14

An absolutely appalling Cheltenham for this idea and one that mirrors my own betting. I had hoped to rebuild my bank but not to be.

Good luck tomorrow
 
hedgehog hedgehog As I said in my post (#75) I think you need to avoid Festival meetings when trying come up with a system such as this - put a ceiling on Prize money races of £30k - as so to avoid races where nearly every horse has probably been favourite in it last race......you're on the wrong foot right at the start there...

@rave154 Not sure why you are going so far back? As Chesham Chesham said - as so much can, and has, changed over the years. I only entertain 2015 - 2019 in my searches. Racecourses can disappear, new ones built, the going can be changed (AW), drainage put in, fences moved......so many things can influence the data return....and that's on top of any Class and Handicapping method changes.

Not having a dig, just thinking out aloud.
I have had HRB for nearly a month now and I have lost count of the number of times I have, after a few hours work, scraped my whole line of thought and started over again.………...and I will keep doing that until I get it 'right'.
They are not 'wasted hours', as I have learnt something new, even if it is a negative.
 
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Hello all,

Kempton 2.40
Burrows edge 3rd 7/4f
My way * 2nd 7/1
Shoal bay

Kempton 3.15
El terremoto *
Kayf blanco
Forth bridge won 7/1

Good luck today
 
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Hi Retriver,

only reason is because at the moment, i have all the racing post race results in complete form,

from 1988 ( when they began ) to 2012 when i kind of stopped looking at racing etc,

since then, the racing post has changed its format etc, so i would have to rewrite some of the software
that downloads each race result and thne parses out the data and finally inserts it into my DB..

not impossible, simply a pain..hence.... i stick to the reults up to dec31 2012

i will re-run the last DB study for hedgehog....but this time..put a 30K ceiling on it as recomended by yourself

using the same 1995 > 2000 as before


however......form now on, i will use the years around 2007 > 2012 to at least make the results
reasonably recent and not so ancient !
 
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here are the results, HCAPs, 6-14 runners, flat only, no 3yo only races until septemeber onwards, > 10K prize fund,

1995 > 2000

3 lowest price_Ratio from LTO,

eliminating runners priced 7th or worse BEFORE ranking the ratings(price ratios lto)

ranked according to price_rank in "todays" race ( race to be contested)

columns, from left to right...

price_Rank in todays race,
profit/loss
wins - runs,
win%
profit% ( as a % of total bets )

same as before for Hedhehog, but with an additional ceiling of no more than 30K

1 -22.78 144 - 592 24.32 -3.85
2 -39.46 84 - 498 16.87 -7.92
3 -63.50 51 - 410 12.44 -15.49
4 -41.50 40 - 346 11.56 -11.99
5 -76.50 29 - 340 8.53 -22.50
6 -145.00 13 - 279 4.66 -51.97

again a nice steady progression in both directions in terms of win% and profit(loss)
 
here are the same results,

this time however......the index down the left hand column...... is the sum of
the price_Rank ( in the contested race ) + the consistency figure of the horse

thus 4 is the lowest(best) and would represent a horse that is FAV and also
has won its last 3 races

4 10.00 8 - 22 36.36 45.45
5 -23.84 7 - 52 13.46 -45.85
6 -1.33 24 - 93 25.81 -1.43
7 -27.50 18 - 101 17.82 -27.23
8 -21.25 18 - 117 15.38 -18.16
9 -2.35 22 - 119 18.49 -1.97
10 -24.00 22 - 141 15.60 -17.02
11 0.91 25 - 146 17.12 0.62
12 -28.88 23 - 165 13.94 -17.50
13 4.63 31 - 163 19.02 2.84
14 -45.29 23 - 158 14.56 -28.67
15 -3.50 26 - 161 16.15 -2.17
16 -33.25 20 - 166 12.05 -20.03
17 -35.42 17 - 135 12.59 -26.23
18 -5.25 20 - 142 14.08 -3.70
19 -35.50 12 - 123 9.76 -28.86
20 -21.00 12 - 98 12.24 -21.43
21 -0.17 13 - 88 14.77 -0.19
22 -26.50 8 - 83 9.64 -31.93
23 -17.50 10 - 84 11.90 -20.83
24 -6.67 7 - 56 12.50 -11.90
25 5.25 7 - 50 14.00 10.50
26 -5.00 5 - 46 10.87 -10.87
27 -26.00 1 - 35 2.86 -74.29
28 -11.25 2 - 25 8.00 -45.00
29 -14.00 2 - 24 8.33 -58.33
30 -14.00 0 - 14 0.00 -100.00
31 -7.00 0 - 7 0.00 -100.00
32 -4.00 0 - 4 0.00 -100.00
33 4.00 1 - 7 14.29 57.14
34 -1.00 0 - 1 0.00 -100.00
35 -2.00 0 - 2 0.00 -100.00
36 -1.00 0 - 1 0.00 -100.00
 
Hello all,

Very interesting work @rave154, your efforts are much appreciated. I was thinking of the betting forecast to throw out no hopers. So you would eliminate any not in the first 6 then rank on lto sp. Sorry I think I may have misunderstood and you have already done that. Thank you again for your excellent work

Summary after a mixed day

Lowest
Races 28
Bets 28
Wins 7 SR 25.00%
P/L +11.60
Yield +41.43%
1% daily ratchet +11.24

3 lowest
Races 28
Bets 83
Wins 14 SR 50.00%
P/L +2.60
Yield +3.13%
1% daily ratchet +1.76

Wrinkle
Races 21
Bets 34
Wins 9 SR 42.86%
P/L +19.10
Yield +56.18%
1% daily ratchet +20.07

Good luck tomorrow
 
for hedgehog.....and others,


i have attached as txt files ( for correct tabulation ) some results of studies i have done..

regarding your idea of "price lto" ( which i tend to agree with btw )

the line at the top of each file.....defines what is being studied.....any questions about...anything, feel free to ask

it's interesting...as we move to look at the price/price_Ratio/price_rank etc of the WINNER of the horses lto race
you see a distinct almost linear progression downwards in terms of win% ....




hope this helps
 

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hedgehog hedgehog I thought you had a good day today (7/1 winner!!) - not a 'mixed day' lol

@rave154 Like hedgehog I really appreciate your efforts and work in this (and obvious you love crunching the numbers - like me) but I do feel for you, in that doing your research so far back (even 2007-2012 is too old), it could be wasted effort.
If I were you, I would find some way of bringing yourself bang up to date ASAP - it's got to aid your profitability.

For example - "As of 1st January 2010 all flat races in Great Britain are classified in a new system dividing them into Class 1 to Class 7"
Have your stats been adjusted for this?

It's funny, I've just remembered that as a teenager / earlier twenties, I had probably 300-400+ racing newspapers in my bedroom (Weekender/Raceform Outlook/Racing Post/Daily Mirror racing pages). Would spend hours testing out systems, thumbing through the pages and staying up far too late....lol.
Think I was made to come to my senses by 'others' (on fire hazard grounds) and had to cart them off to the recycling bin....
 
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Hello @rave154 , sorry I can't download these on my tablet, it's rubbish by the way, but I much appreciate your efforts. You are obviously making better progress with this idea than I am, well done. I think the idea of lto winner sp is very good and you should investigate it further.

Hello retriever retriever, I would prefer if each, lowest, 3 lowest and wrinkle had won but as you say 2 out of 3 isn't bad. Maybe I'm being a bit harsh in my descriptions but I'm trying to give as accurate description as possible. I'm glad 3 lowest is making up some lost ground from the +0.10 P/L after Cheltenham. I think your idea of avoiding festivals is good but I have to give the idea a full test and try all suitable races even if it turns out poorly

Good luck tomorrow
 
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