3.03 Leic

[tony spencer]

Race Time and Course​

Race Time: 3:03 PM
Course: LEICESTER (GB)

Recommended Win Bets​

1. Harlington (FR)​

• Rank: 2
• Positives:
  • Trainer Form (TF AE): 1.15 (15% better than expected)
  • Positive Pointers (TPos): 0
  • High Qualifying Races (NoQ): 147
  • Decent Draw (AE): 0.76 (24% worse than expected)
  • TopR score: 0.11
  • Predicted Starting Price (SP): 5
  • AI Predicted Price: 100 / 0.11 ≈ 9.09
  • Model's Chance of Winning (Round): 0.11 (11% chance of winning)
  • StartCom: -1 (manageable)
  • Trainer: Not provided in the detailed sheet
  • Trainer Stat: Not provided in the detailed sheet
  • Nor: Not provided in the detailed sheet
  • Profit: Not provided in the detailed sheet
  • Overall: Fair chance of winning

Given the high StartCom value for Magic Rascal (GB), it is not recommended as a win bet.

Recommended Lay Bets​

1. Azure Stage (GB)​

• Rank: 12
• Negatives:
  • Trainer Form (TF AE): 0.89 (11% worse than expected)
  • Negative Pointers (TNeg): 1
  • Decent Draw (AE): 0.76 (24% worse than expected)
  • Poor Pace: Pace = -4.62
  • Negative Comments (NegCom): 1
  • Predicted Starting Price (SP): 14
  • AI Predicted Price: 100 / 0.05 ≈ 20
  • Model's Chance of Winning (Round): 0.05 (5% chance of winning)
  • StartCom: -6 (high risk)
  • Trainer: Ed Dunlop
  • Trainer Stat: Trainer Course
  • Nor: 43.00
  • Profit: £16.23
  • Overall: Low chance of winning

2. Dibble Dabble (GB)​

• Rank: 8
• Negatives:
  • Trainer Form (TF AE): 0.66 (34% worse than expected)
  • Negative Pointers (TNeg): 0
  • Decent Draw (AE): 1.14 (14% better than expected)
  • Poor Pace: Pace = -2
  • Negative Comments (NegCom): 0
  • Predicted Starting Price (SP): 12
  • AI Predicted Price: 100 / 0.07 ≈ 14.29
  • Model's Chance of Winning (Round): 0.07 (7% chance of winning)
  • StartCom: 0 (neutral)
  • Overall: Low chance of winning

3. Old Bailey (IRE)​

• Rank: 5
• Negatives:
  • Trainer Form (TF AE): 0.69 (31% worse than expected)
  • Negative Pointers (TNeg): 1
  • Decent Draw (AE): 1.02 (2% better than expected)
  • Poor Pace: Pace = -5.25
  • Negative Comments (NegCom): 1
  • Predicted Starting Price (SP): 10
  • AI Predicted Price: 100 / 0.09 ≈ 11.11
  • Model's Chance of Winning (Round): 0.09 (9% chance of winning)
  • StartCom: -5 (high risk)
  • Trainer: Nigel Tinkler
  • Trainer Stat: Trainer Course
  • Nor: 33.00
  • Profit: £15.75
  • Overall: Low chance of winning

These recommendations consider the risk associated with high StartCom values for win bets and identify lay bets for horses with multiple negative factors and starting prices below 12.