3.00 at Goodwood main contenders imo

[tony spencer]

Race No 3-00 at GOODWOOD (GB) with 16 Runners

Date: 08/02/2024

Course: GOODWOOD (GB)

Number of Runners: 16

Predicted Race Pace: Fast Pace

Fast pace races suit horses coming from off the pace.

Rank Analysis:​

The mid group horses are competitive but less likely to win. There are some outsiders in the low group. The bottom group contains long shots with the lowest ratings. Bopedro (FR) is ranked in the bottom 20% and has a small chance based on the model. Urban Sprawl (GB) is ranked in the bottom 20% and has a small chance based on the model. Darkness (FR) is ranked in the bottom 20% and has a small chance based on the model.

Analysis for Each Horse:​

Blue For You (IRE)​

Blue For You (IRE) is now 6.0 years old and fully matured. It is top-rated by the model with a 9.00% chance of winning and should be above 11.11 on the exchanges to be a value bet. The horse is fit, which is positive. It tends to be a midfield. Very positive trainer stats: 6.0. This horse has a neutral draw, running -7% better than standard. There is no significant advantage or disadvantage. We are quite confident in this assessment based on previous stats.. Trainer AE: 1.23, Win Percentage: 17.0% The trainer's form is very poor, which is concerning. The horse is a poor starter.

Perotto (GB)​

Perotto (GB) is now 6.0 years old and fully matured. It is top-rated by the model with a 9.00% chance of winning and should be above 11.11 on the exchanges to be a value bet. The horse is fit, which is positive. It tends to be a in behind leaders. It is a hard puller, which is positive in fast races. Really positive trainer stats: 3.0. This horse has a slight draw advantage, running -2% better than standard. This is a minor positive. We are quite confident in this assessment based on previous stats.. Trainer AE: 1.16, Win Percentage: 22.0% The trainer's form is average, which is concerning. The horse is a below average starter.

Benacre (IRE)​

Benacre (IRE) is now 4.0 years old and could still be improving. It is top-rated by the model with a 9.00% chance of winning and should be above 11.11 on the exchanges to be a value bet. The horse is fit, which is positive. It tends to be a front runner. It is a hard puller, which is positive in fast races. This horse has a neutral draw, running -7% better than standard. There is no significant advantage or disadvantage. We are quite confident in this assessment based on previous stats.. The trainer's form is very poor, which is concerning. The horse is a below average starter.

Holloway Boy (GB)​

Holloway Boy (GB) is now 4.0 years old and could still be improving. It is top-rated by the model with a 9.00% chance of winning and should be above 11.11 on the exchanges to be a value bet. The horse is fit, which is positive. It tends to be a front runner. It is a hard puller, which is positive in fast races. Very positive trainer stats: 5.0. This horse has a slight draw advantage, running -2% better than standard. This is a minor positive. We are quite confident in this assessment based on previous stats.. Trainer AE: 1.2, Win Percentage: 18.0% The trainer's form is below average, which is concerning.

Orbaan (GB)​

Orbaan (GB) is now 9.0 years old and could be on the decline. It is top-rated by the model with a 6.00% chance of winning and should be above 16.67 on the exchanges to be a value bet. The horse is fit, which is positive. It tends to be a midfield. Really positive trainer stats: 4.0. This horse has a significant draw advantage, running 86% better than standard. This is a major positive. We are quite confident in this assessment based on previous stats.. Trainer AE: 1.48, Win Percentage: 18.0% The trainer's form is very poor, which is concerning.

Rhoscolyn (GB)​

Rhoscolyn (GB) is now 6.0 years old and fully matured. It is top-rated by the model with a 5.00% chance of winning and should be above 20.0 on the exchanges to be a value bet. The horse is fit, which is positive. It tends to be a backmarker. Really positive trainer stats: 4.0. This horse has a slight draw advantage, running -2% better than standard. This is a minor positive. We are quite confident in this assessment based on previous stats.. Trainer AE: 1.45, Win Percentage: 20.0% The trainer's form is very poor, which is concerning. The horse is a below average starter.

Urban Sprawl (GB)​

Urban Sprawl (GB) is now 4.0 years old and could still be improving. It is top-rated by the model with a 4.00% chance of winning and should be above 25.0 on the exchanges to be a value bet. The horse is fit, which is positive. It tends to be a front runner. It is a hard puller, which is positive in fast races. Very positive trainer stats: 5.0. This horse has a significant draw advantage, running 86% better than standard. This is a major positive. We are quite confident in this assessment based on previous stats.. Trainer AE: 1.14, Win Percentage: 18.0% The trainer's form is very poor, which is concerning. The horse is a very poor starter.

Darkness (FR)​

Darkness (FR) is now 6.0 years old and fully matured. It is top-rated by the model with a 3.00% chance of winning and should be above 33.33 on the exchanges to be a value bet. The horse is fit, which is positive. It tends to be a front runner. Really positive trainer stats: 4.0. This horse has a neutral draw, running -7% better than standard. There is no significant advantage or disadvantage. We are quite confident in this assessment based on previous stats.. Trainer AE: 1.45, Win Percentage: 20.0% The trainer's form is very poor, which is concerning.

 

[rbtblb82]

I got lucky on this race with a late single hedging against other bets I had, but I only backed the winner because (a) it was Oisin Murphy on a 12/1 (b) the commentator said that Goodwood is David Menuisier's local track just before the off, and he has a 25% strike rate - why they don't tell you stuff like that with more notice I don't know.

I think I'm going to do a list of trainers and where they're based so I know which are the local tracks, they always seem to do far better at their local tracks e.g. Jim Goldie at Ayr & Musselburgh, Tim Easterby at Beverley & York, etc.

On a side note, it was a shame to see both Jim Goldie's horses miss out on the 100k bonus yesterday, with two close 2nd's, ouch, at least they both have another chance at Pontefract.

 

[trecelyn]

I would be wary of backing a horse based on the proximity of their stable. I was speaking to a trainer who said to keep costs down they would give their younger horses runs at local courses to gain experience, and older horses runs to get their marks down.

There also has to be suitable races for them to aim at.

Been a Menuisier fan for some time now, he does seem able to get that little bit extra out of his charges and before him Guy Harwood

 

[rbtblb82]

Ok thanks Trecelyn, it's just something I've noticed, since I've been betting really, but especially since I've stopped backing certain trainers (like Tim Easterby), I've noticed they've hit a fair few at their local track(s), and seem to do a bit better, but maybe it depends on the trainer. I'll just keep my eye on it for a few weeks, and if I have time, I might record some stats (but bit busy with gardening, painting and fence repair atm).

Also, I've had a quick look at the majority of trainers are based around Newmarket, Newbury, in Yorkshire, or Lambourn - there's loads in these locations, with a few scattered here and there (Chester, Leicester/Nottingham, few around Bath, and a few around Warwick), so maybe that wouldn't help much anyway.