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2021 Flat Selections

05/06/21
Eps 14:00 Cl2 10f 3yo Hcp
King Frankel 0.5pt @11/4 with a Boost

Maybe not very original, but his chance is there for all to see after his 2nd in the London Gold Cup.

The main MO here (apart from the selection looking to have a good chance) is that Beckett's record with Cl4 winners going straight to a Cl2 3yo Hcp is a surprisingly poor 0-16; the race Patient Dream won has worked out exceedingly well and PD should improve for this step up in trip, but I think KF looks capable of giving him 5lb. (Famous last words, but) none of the others look good enough. Freak Out impressed last time but there must be a doubt about him getting this trip and 6/1 doesn't appeal.
 
I don't think I've ever seen a horse travel so badly and almost win. I'd written off his chance after the first furlong, and by 2f out I was watching the race develop up front. Then, after the race I had to go straight to lunch without knowing the result.
 
08/06/21
Ayr 19:15 - Cl4 1m 4yo+ Hcp

Tommy G - 0.375pt @11/2 with a Boost, 0.125pt @4/1 w/o Midnite Bride

Tommy G goes well here and is attempting a hat-trick of wins. He's up in class from 6 to 4 today but this is a Cl4 in name only, with the Fav top rated at 75, and he seems to be running at least as well as ever and Harry Russell (claiming 5lb) seems to get on well with the horse. He won very easily over C&D last time albeit they didn't go very quick and he was in the right place tracking the leader.

Hugh Taylor opposes with Midnite Bride (Kevin Ryan) and makes the point that she beat Tommy G (Jim Goldie) FTO in April when he'd already had a run and is now 4lb worse off (1lb better off inc the appr claim), but that doesn't take into account;

Cl2-5 4yo+ winners in Mar/April since 2012 (7-13f) - Jim Goldie 2-43 = 4.6%

whereas Kevin Ryan had 4 winners from 10 runners in Mar/April 2021 but is 0-13 since then and only 2-48 = 4.2% in all Hcps since end of April.

I do think Midnite Bride is the main danger though, hence 1/4 of the stake in the w/o market.
 
^Probably missed the main point there about Goldie, which is that even with 1 run in 90 days (TG was just a bit less than 90 days since his previous run), he's 0-10 in Mar/Apr, so having had a run when he met Midnite Bride in April was not the significant advantage Hugh makes out.

Take out the 'since 2012' parameter and your looking at 0-26 since 2003.
 
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10/06/21

Hay 20:30 - 10.5f Cl5 4yo+ Hcp

Ring Of Gold 0.125pt @60 on BF (22/1 from 28/1 this morning)

Mick Easterby runs this 4yo for the first time this season and considering his overall strike rate, he has a pretty good record with 4yo's making their seasonal debut quite late, with an all-time record of 3-10 in June and 2-8 since 2015.

RoG took the eye at Bev last year when staying on for 4th (btn 3L) from well off the pace having come from the car park draw of 14 (only 12 ran) and having spent literally the first furlong getting over to the rail and running in last place. I can ignore poor efforts in his last two races on Soft and over hurdles on Good to Soft (Timeform) as Havana Gold's hate anything with Soft in the description.

Joanna Mason takes 3lb off which means he effectively runs off 5lb lower than the Bev run. A likely strong pace should suit here; his Dam won twice over 12/13f (NH Flat).
 
12/06/21
Bat 13:20

Decora 0.25pt @3/1 with a Boost

Impressed when winning a Cl5 a few days ago, drops into a Cl6 with a Pen; what's not to like! Was just about to take 11/4 with a Boost and they went 11/4, so got 3/1. Seems a decent price after it was 5/2 last night and now a 10p R4 nr.

Trainer has a good record when turning them out quickly.
 
12/06/21
San 14:50

Repertoire 0.25pt @10/1 with a Boost

The stats don't look good; David Simcock has a poor record in 3yo+ Hcps in May/June. The two 3yo's look likely candidates but they've not run well in their last two races. Buxted Too was 2nd (though beaten a long way) in the Esher Cup but hasn't run well the last twice, possibly due to Soft ground. He gets an awful lot of weight from all the others. If it was the ground, he could be good enough here; it's a very weak Cl2.

Repertoire took the eye when running on strongly in a high grade Ascot apprentice hcp in April. I felt that with stronger driving than Grace McEntee could muster, he might have won, and you'd expect him to have come on for that seasonal return. He ran in a proper Cl2 at Nby last time when only 5th, I'm hoping that he didn't act on the Soft ground; Timeform also think that's a possibility.
 
PHS said:
12/06/21
Bat 13:20

Decora 0.25pt @3/1 with a Boost

Impressed when winning a Cl5 a few days ago, drops into a Cl6 with a Pen; what's not to like! Was just about to take 11/4 with a Boost and they went 11/4, so got 3/1. Seems a decent price after it was 5/2 last night and now a 10p R4 nr.

Trainer has a good record when turning them out quickly.
Click to expand...
Added a saver on Lady Elysia @ 4/1. Has won twice at Bath on firm ground and was backed into 7/2 from 5/1 last night. With Dobie's claim, she gets nearly a stone from Decora. The alternative would have been 5/2 w/o Decora and possibly win twice.
 
12/06/21
Che 16:30 10.5f Cl4 4yo+ Hcp

Mutaabeq 0.25pt@9/1

There's some real dead wood in here but the front two in the market, Arctic Vega and Maori Knight look to have a fair chance.

Mutaabeq caught the eye last year when, having been drawn in the car park stall 14, he came with a very strong run down the outside to close on the leaders and went 1.7 IR despite never being close enough to challenge. That race has worked out very well, with the winner Snow Ocean probably having 10lb in hand and the 2nd winning FTO this season.

NTO (over C&D) he pulled his chance away (from the same car park draw). He's now 10lb lower off a mark of 70 and Joe Fanning is back on board today. The horse was very well backed last night from 10/1 into 6/1 (Hills went 22/1 early) but that's probably just people that made the same notebook entry as me.
 
PHS said:
Added a saver on Lady Elysia @ 4/1. Has won twice at Bath on firm ground and was backed into 7/2 from 5/1 last night. With Dobie's claim, she gets nearly a stone from Decora. The alternative would have been 5/2 w/o Decora and possibly win twice.
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Looks like the race came too soon for Decora only 4 days after the win. No harm done though with Lady Elysia holding on near the finish, SP 5/2.
 
PHS said:
12/06/21
Che 16:30 10.5f Cl4 4yo+ Hcp

Mutaabeq 0.25pt@9/1

There's some real dead wood in here but the front two in the market, Arctic Vega and Maori Knight look to have a fair chance.

Mutaabeq caught the eye last year when, having been drawn in the car park stall 14, he came with a very strong run down the outside to close on the leaders and went 1.7 IR despite never being close enough to challenge. That race has worked out very well, with the winner Snow Ocean probably having 10lb in hand and the 2nd winning FTO this season.

NTO (over C&D) he pulled his chance away (from the same car park draw). He's now 10lb lower off a mark of 70 and Joe Fanning is back on board today. The horse was very well backed last night from 10/1 into 6/1 (Hills went 22/1 early) but that's probably just people that made the same notebook entry as me.
Click to expand...
I dont do many flat bets but a friend of mine has gone to Chester today and asked me for a few tips i had a look at this race and advised an ew on Merwab at 33s John Egans only ride today and only had 5 runs on the turf, my other guess was Brian the Snail ew in the 1-50 , nice winner in the first at Bath for you well done
 
12/06/21
Yor 14:00 12f Lady Riders Hcp

Arctic Fox 0.25pt @9/2

Wouldn't have bothered with this but I like Becky Smith. The question mark here is whether Todhunter can get this mare back to her best; if so, she wins IMO but it's a big if!
 
PHS said:
12/06/21
Che 16:30 10.5f Cl4 4yo+ Hcp

Mutaabeq 0.25pt@9/1

There's some real dead wood in here but the front two in the market, Arctic Vega and Maori Knight look to have a fair chance.

Mutaabeq caught the eye last year when, having been drawn in the car park stall 14, he came with a very strong run down the outside to close on the leaders and went 1.7 IR despite never being close enough to challenge. That race has worked out very well, with the winner Snow Ocean probably having 10lb in hand and the 2nd winning FTO this season.

NTO (over C&D) he pulled his chance away (from the same car park draw). He's now 10lb lower off a mark of 70 and Joe Fanning is back on board today. The horse was very well backed last night from 10/1 into 6/1 (Hills went 22/1 early) but that's probably just people that made the same notebook entry as me.
Click to expand...
Looked to have a very good chance with 2f to go (traded 2.22) but found absolutely NIL inside the final furlong!

Go find the winner!
 
PHS said:
10/06/21

Hay 20:30 - 10.5f Cl5 4yo+ Hcp

Ring Of Gold 0.125pt @60 on BF (22/1 from 28/1 this morning)

Mick Easterby runs this 4yo for the first time this season and considering his overall strike rate, he has a pretty good record with 4yo's making their seasonal debut quite late, with an all-time record of 3-10 in June and 2-8 since 2015.

RoG took the eye at Bev last year when staying on for 4th (btn 3L) from well off the pace having come from the car park draw of 14 (only 12 ran) and having spent literally the first furlong getting over to the rail and running in last place. I can ignore poor efforts in his last two races on Soft and over hurdles on Good to Soft (Timeform) as Havana Gold's hate anything with Soft in the description.

Joanna Mason takes 3lb off which means he effectively runs off 5lb lower than the Bev run. A likely strong pace should suit here; his Dam won twice over 12/13f (NH Flat).
Click to expand...
Only just had a chance to watch this. Pace didn't work out and a poor ride IMO.

Dwelt start, close up, nudged along 3f out, not clear run over 2f out, ridden over 1f out, not clear run over 1f out, kept on but never dangerous (op 12/1)
 
14/06/21

Wdr 20:00 1m Cl4 4yo+ Hcp

No Bet

It's a shame Hannon is in such awful form (something like 2-50 in 4yo+ Hcps) this season because based on it's 3rd (nse & hd) behind Artistic Rifles last year, Lexington Force has one of the best pieces of form in this race and the 11/1 looks tempting. Jockey is also in a drought.
 
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