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General

ARAZI91

Mare
At request of Pingman Pingman and after a posting by J Jimbo in the "UK Common Race" thread i took the initiative to start a thread for the Cheltenham Festival 2018 which will be upon us soon. Feel free to contribute any tips , write ups ,ratings , info , links , ideas , systems etc to any relation to the Festival and hopefully having the lot in one place will turn out useful and provide members an edge to what is always a competitive series of races.

So i'll start it off and pull over a link kindly posted by J Jimbo and it was a site i had never heard of. But it is choc full of trends for each individual race at the festival as well as a more" General " part which looks at overall trainers , jockeys , course form etc.

Gault Stats
 
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A couple of more links to Festival sites-

Timeform have their own Cheltenham site - link is here
Cheltenham Tips, Results, Free Bets & Race Cards | Timeform

And At The Races which includes trends , stats guides , news & feature writers and the usual video content
Cheltenham Festival | At The Races

Oddschecker Current Betting for all Festival Races
https://www.oddschecker.com/cheltenham-festival

And another with the usual stats , previews & trends
Cheltenham Festival 2018 Preview. Major Horse Racing Event Guide
 
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A few uploads of Cheltenham guides

One from Proform - Cheltenham Stats Pack 2018 - including trainer angles etc
and one by Nick Pullen of Against The Crowd - Winning Profiles 2018
Also added - Bet Catalysts Cheltenham 2018 - Alternative Trends
 

Attachments

  • cheltenham-festival-winning-profiles-2018.pdf
    832.8 KB · Views: 10
  • The-Cheltenham-Stats-Pack-2017-2018.pdf
    1.6 MB · Views: 9
  • Cheltenham Festival Alternative Trends 2018.pdf
    121.3 KB · Views: 12
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Course last race
Most pundits talk about previous Course Form at the Festival and it's true that Cheltenham form holds up well
But looking at it from a Last Race angle Leopardstown on Recency is well clear and highights the dominance of the Irish runners in recent years

Table from HRB of Last Race Tracks with over 100 runners at the Festival and ordered by Number of Wins

LR Track.PNG
 
And This from 2013 onwards (HRB records this info only from July 2012)

Table of Festival Record by Trainer location

Location.PNG
Leinster coming out well no doubt due to Mullins & Elliot training there
Although taking out all runners by those two still gives Leinster a profitable group of runners
Leinester without Mullins & Elliot.PNG
 
Course last race
Most pundits talk about previous Course Form at the Festival and it's true that Cheltenham form holds up well
But looking at it from a Last Race angle Leopardstown on Recency is well clear and highights the dominance of the Irish runners in recent years

Table from HRB of Last Race Tracks with over 100 runners at the Festival and ordered by Number of Wins

View attachment 56155

Horses coming from the AW have a terrible record - don’t have the stats to hand, but I’m sure none had ever won last time I checked.
 
The handicaps at Cheltenham can be very tricky but always good to get your teeth into. I am a big fan of Paul Nicholls and normally look closely at his runners in handicaps I was surprised though to see hes record when he gets a runner in the lower half of the weights.

His overall record in all handicaps is as follows:
1518000878739.png

If we then look at his runners in the bottom half I have chosen the 11th or worse position in HRB and his runners then become profitable

1518000973405.png

All 8 of those winners were ridden by a pro jockey so if we remove any ridden by claimers then the results become decent

1518001045461.png
Seems he is good at getting his runners into the lower part of the handicap and I will certainly be looking closely at any of his runners that meet the above criteria. Also worth a mention is that 3 out of 4 of his winners wore blinkers
 
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